Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lets look at sensible weather and compare to Euro solution ( the most suppressed of all the models) argues Steve D. While he is God , he is a measured reasonable met so Im bringing this here rather than vendors. The logic simple : if Euro is saying South- South. SOUTH and reality is already North of what is progged by Euro then clearly Euro had a poor run : 'but let's be clear the precipitation shield is already north of the ECMWF solution....As such, this is a rare poor run of the ECMWF these days.' Steve D on Twitter There you go. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do I spy a more Northern NAM at 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You're talking surface data which sensors over sea actually give you. But this argument is used all the time and it's simply overblown. Yes we have seen changes and the ones occurring now have not been pretty. It could however jog a bit north at the last minute so NYC needs to be on the lookout. You are an intelligent man and I know you know your stuff. I just really feel that what we are seeing is an imbalance in the models right now, giving too much credit to one disturbance and not enough to the even more important disturbance for people in the New York City area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Who is jumping ship...why cant people be satisfied with 3-6 inches from north to south...thats a very good snowfall...why do people want more or think we are giving up by being realistic with these amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do I spy a more Northern NAM at 30... Talk dirty to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z nam south again at least through 30 hours. Man that cold is crushing everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Um, there is some decent precip pointed right at NNJ and NYC at 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Maybe just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The NAM looks like the SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Up North, it seems that first wave overperforming is our only hope on this one, and it seems to have some potetnial for 2-4/3-6, esp. if it falls overnight... Grasping, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z nam south again at least through 30 hours. Man that cold is crushing everything!Agree, I don't see a north trend at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Steve d also busted badly on 2/6/10 bring 5-10" up to bergen county Steve d also busted badly on 2/6/10 bring 5-10" up to bergen county I haven't found him to be very good on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Jerry upset Box is toast so he's looking to rain in a little NYC parade!! Jerry. Jerry. Idiot. No...I'm happy if you get snow. But you do realize you have gone from 12+ to hoping for 3-6 and trending badly right? Maybe all the guidance today is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z nam south again at least through 30 hours. Man that cold is crushing everything! No it's not. The first wave is wetter for NYC, and prob our best shot for decent accumulations. As the 2nd wave looks to miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am surprised you would say that. I am sorry but data from a ton of weather stations on land in California is going to be a lot better than from a random plane or ship, or derived from satellite data. That is the truth and is why we have seen such massive changes in the models throughout this winter within even 24 hours. Why would weather stations at land level be better than planes and satellites that sample more than just the land level? I am surprised that you would say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice hit tomorrow night, especially for NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice hit tomorrow night, especially for NNJ. slim radar looks decent on NCEP through hr 36 I can't get any precip totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 First wave has some more to it than 12z, we'll see what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam is .25+ all snow for NYC Sunday night. 2nd wave looks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam at 18z is a different solution again. Modest event through NYC and sne south of the pike and early. Wish the model didn't blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam is .25+ all snow for NYC Sunday night. 2nd wave looks south yeah, moving so slow for me, but the 2nd wave looks pretty far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 give snowgoose credit, he basically predicted this trend a few hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah the first slug trended north even putting sne into the 2-4 category. I am not believing it until other guidance chimes in agreeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 give snowgoose credit, he basically predicted this trend a few hours ago Agree! Hopefully the first wave keep trending wetter, looks like we will be plenty cold Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The southern vort is looking stronger again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 give snowgoose credit, he basically predicted this trend a few hours agoyes he did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah the first slug trended north even putting sne into the 2-4 category. I am not believing it until other guidance chimes in agreeing. Agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 give snowgoose credit, he basically predicted this trend a few hours agoAlways. Really good met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Second wave is either decently south and/or slower thru 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why would weather stations at land level be better than planes and satellites that sample more than just the land level? I am surprised that you would say that. Because there is much more and better data. Very few planes fly through the storm that provide data back to the models, while there is very good depth and quantity of information coming from many, many, land weather stations. The best way to tell will be if this does trend north as I am saying when the storm comes inland tonight. The models should start to change with the 0z runs. If they don't, then I am wrong and put a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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