Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6Z was a hiccup ... toss it and you have some super consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For those familiar with Rt. 94, it runs basically from Port Jervis, through Warwick and then eastward, that seems to be the dividing line between steady snow and virga, at least through early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You can really see the PV working to deamplify and depress the flow south as the storm comes in this run. This is absolutely what we all need for a big snow event, and it's good to see the trend north stop this run. If we have an outcome like the 0z Euro/ensembles last night, we'll have a very nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Starting to creap north at hour 72, moderate snow from KSWF to TTN and heavy snow southwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You can really see the PV working to deamplify and depress the flow south as the storm comes in this run. This is absolutely what we all need for a big snow event, and it's good to see the trend north stop this run. If we have an outcome like the 0z Euro/ensembles last night, we'll have a very nice storm. Unless you live in the HV or orange cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Moderate snow in NYC at hour 75. SNE northward is high and dry. This is way south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Big hit hr 75 for dca-phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well South of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hour 75 I-80 the dividing line between heavy snow and moderate snow. Flashbacks of the radar from 2/6/10 starting to haunt me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Philly gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This run Jackpots the area from DC to Philly with our area on the northern edge of the steadier snows. 100 miles north of NYC is really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 But will this possibly be one superstorm extending into Tuesday like Craig Allen said is a possibility or still multiple waves but ending Monday night? In other words, duration wise, a 24 hour event? And how do the ratios look? IS QPF 1 inch or better across all of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Still looks like 10-12" to me...with higher amounts in a band from SE PA to Central NJ. The area where that band sets up is going to fluctuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As time goes on during the run the heavier snows continue to just get shunted further and further south. This is about a 50-75 mile shift southward now from leaving the northern half of this sub forum high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At hour 72 850`s already minus 6- 8 - at hour 78 6z 850`s at KNYC were minus 2 A blend between the GFS and Euro is really a good spot to be in IMO for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, that's a further south shift than I expected looking just at the 500mb pattern. DC looks to be back in the game. The Euro as always will be exciting to see if it's just a burp GFS run or if there's real truth to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As time goes on during the run the heavier snows continue to just get shunted further and further south. This is about a 50-75 mile shift southward now from leaving the northern half of this sub forum high and dry. These have ticked North at the last second every time this winter. I see no exception here. Hang in there Yanks and get those 2-6-2010 visions out of your mind :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 But will this possibly be one superstorm extending into Tuesday like Craig Allen said is a possibility or still multiple waves but ending Monday night? In other words, duration wise, a 24 hour event? And how do the ratios look? IS QPF 1 inch or better across all of us? In reading the pbp does it sound like a superstorm lasting into Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Their was less interaction this run between the northern stream wave and the southern stream wave. The northern stream wave acted more like a kicker and a shredder than the 00z GFS. Personally this run was not what I wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That is one mean PV and yes after 2010 many of us will be consumed woth worry till the Euro but you know what?? Thats half of the fun and frankly all we need for 2nd plce is a half ft & even this potential hickup to the south still provides that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 This was a pretty damn good run still for NYC and especially coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Their was less interaction this run between the northern stream wave and the southern stream wave. The northern stream wave acted more like a kicker and a shredder than the 00z GFS. Personally this run was not what I wanted to see. But does it have support from other guidance attm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This run is still 8+ for NYC but over 12 inches for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is my only concern at this point. We know somewhere will get a nice event, I am just concerned that the larger precip shield as depicted the last couple days is overdone for an overunning event and the large amounts will be confined to a smaller area like being shown on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z must have been a hiccup, I was surprised to see it so far north. I'm starting to buy the southern solution more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 An hour ago we were debating some rain at KNYC and a N trend now its snow with 850`s going from minus 8 to minus 14 . Take the whole suite into account and not 1 OP run . Or you going to drive yourself crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That is one mean PV and yes after 2010 many of us will be consumed woth worry till the Euro but you know what?? Thats half of the fun and frankly all we need for 2nd plce is a half ft & even this potential hickup to the south still provides that! The difference with 2/6/10 is the models were consistently showing the tight gradient over our area for days..with a 10" difference over 50 miles. This is just one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS vs 06z GFS Not sure how anyone here could be happy about that shift. Make the same shift again tonight and we'll be in the same boat as New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Flurries north of I-84. Ready your push-brooms, fellow inhabitants of the north country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS probably overdone with its south movement...UKMET is more amped it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.