Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6Zand 18Z model runs perform worst than the 00Z and 12Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any word on euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No the trend started yesterday south...continuing with last nights euro but they dismissed all of the trends for that one 6z gfs run Most of the models yesterday morning supported 6-12 for the entire area. At 12z yesterday the gfs went south, but up until the point the gfs was stead fast on bringing 8+ for our area. It also had euro support at 00z wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6Zand 18Z model runs perform worst than the 00Z and 12Z models. Mitch why is that , Is there a verifiable skill score to that ? Just asking I`ve always heard that , but I always thought it was untrue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is almost comical to read all of these posts. Guys, don't jump ship yet... the important part of this storm is not even inland in California yet. One of the most accurate forecasting tools I use has trended northwest with the axis and shield of the precipitation as well as increasing precipitation amounts. I expect this trend to continue, especially once the main piece of energy responsible for creating this storm comes on land. I think what you are seeing now is an imbalance in the scales, as the models are getting fantastic information from the one piece of energy inland and are getting rather poor data from the piece still out over the ocean. The scales were of course balanced when they were BOTH out over the ocean. Just a thought. Let's see what happens. There is little difference in the information the models are getting. That's a entirely bogus argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF 15z QPF, these are all down around .2-.3 for our area from 9z: EWR: 0.60 LGA: 0.57 JFK: 0.62 BLM: 0.76 ISP: 0.64 HPN: 0.52 POU: 0.37 TTN: 0.76 PHL: 0.90 BWI: 1.15 DCA: 1.16 ACY and CYN (in southern Ocean County) actually slightly increased QPF from 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z and 12z usually have fresh data injected into them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any word on euro ensembles Pull the shades unless you can get amtrak to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF 15z QPF, these are all down around .2-.3 for our area from 9z: EWR: 0.60 LGA: 0.57 JFK: 0.62 BLM: 0.76 ISP: 0.64 HPN: 0.52 POU: 0.37 TTN: 0.76 PHL: 0.90 BWI: 1.15 DCA: 1.16 Can you do MMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mitch why is that , Is there a verifiable skill score to that ? Just asking I`ve always heard that , but I always thought it was untrue .Upper air ingest. It is verified fact that they are worse. At a certain range around day 5, the previous 0z/12z run is more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF 15z QPF, these are all down around .2-.3 for our area from 9z: EWR: 0.60 LGA: 0.57 JFK: 0.62 BLM: 0.76 ISP: 0.64 HPN: 0.52 POU: 0.37 TTN: 0.76 PHL: 0.90 BWI: 1.15 DCA: 1.16 In line . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In reality the euro ensembles don't give anyone on the east coast much more than 6 if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If they know things have changed why should they "slowly" back out of their current big numbers? So it is trending even further south. before we know it NC will be worried. I give up. Don't need another snow day anyway. And yes, people are out going nuts, and I said yesterday it was irresponsible for the media ( Lee Goldberg ) to be calling for 12+ last night. This is going to join the parade of March storms that didn't happen. And there are a lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Upper air ingest. It is verified fact that they are worse. At a certain range around day 5, the previous 0z/12z run is more accurate.I read a publication from the nws on it, maybe someone has the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mitch why is that , Is there a verifiable skill score to that ? Just asking I`ve always heard that , but I always thought it was untrue . Yes. It is true. The verification scores are available here. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Upper air ingest. It is verified fact that they are worse. At a certain range around day 5, the previous 0z/12z run is more accurate. k , I always dismissed that argument , assumed the weenie`s tossing due to dislike of solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just hoping the rain/snow/ice/whatever/mix holds off tomorrow long enough in BLM to have a dry parade. Lots of people heading to the shore for the annual st pattys day tradition. Hopefully will have a safe ride back to central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6Zand 18Z model runs perform worst than the 00Z and 12Z models. It is my understanding that there is no difference in performance, but I always see people saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes. It is true. The verification scores are available here. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ Very kool, thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Can you do MMU? SREF plumes don't have it, closest is EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 k , I always dismissed that argument , assumed the weenie`s tossing due to dislike of solution .They are still better than the previous run in the medium and short range. In the longe range they are literally tossable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So it is trending even further south. before we know it NC will be worried. I give up. Don't need another snow day anyway. And yes, people are out going nuts, and I said yesterday it was irresponsible for the media ( Lee Goldberg ) to be calling for 12+ last night. This is going to join the parade of March storms that didn't happen. And there are a lot of them. Good point. A lot of busted March calls over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There is little difference in the information the models are getting. That's a entirely bogus argument. I am surprised you would say that. I am sorry but data from a ton of weather stations on land in California is going to be a lot better than from a random plane or ship, or derived from satellite data. That is the truth and is why we have seen such massive changes in the models throughout this winter within even 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6Zand 18Z model runs perform worst than the 00Z and 12Z models. I'm surprised people keep bringing this up. Especially a met. DTK who works at NCEP and posts sometimes in the mid Atlantic thread has repeatedly shown that it is absolutely not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Good point. A lot of busted March calls over the years. Yeah there seems to have been a lot! This is March 2006 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lets look at sensible weather and compare to Euro solution ( the most suppressed of all the models) argues Steve D. While he is God , he is a measured reasonable met so Im bringing this here rather than vendors. The logic simple : if Euro is saying South- South. SOUTH and reality is already North of what is progged by Euro then clearly Euro had a poor run : 'but let's be clear the precipitation shield is already north of the ECMWF solution....As such, this is a rare poor run of the ECMWF these days.' Steve D on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It blows my mind that people are completely dismissing the possibility of a 20-30 mile shift. Those cut off lines are not set in stone, and they never will be regardless of how much forecasting and model guidance you follow. You will only know when the storm is right over your roof. Surprising the reactions here, given the madness that this winter has shown.This ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm surprised people keep bringing this up. Especially a met. DTK who works at NCEP and posts sometimes in the mid Atlantic thread has repeatedly shown that it is absolutely not true. Maybe that explains why our American model is always one of the worst in terms of performance then. If they don't even know the truth about their own model, well then that explains a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lets look at sensible weather and compare to Euro solution ( the most suppressed of all the models) argues Steve D. While he is God , he is a measured reasonable met so Im bringing this here rather than vendors. The logic simple : if Euro is saying South- South. SOUTH and reality is already North of what is progged by Euro then clearly Euro had a poor run : 'but let's be clear the precipitation shield is already north of the ECMWF solution....As such, this is a rare poor run of the ECMWF these days.' Steve D on Twitter Steve d also busted badly on 2/6/10 bring 5-10" up to bergen county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am surprised you would say that. I am sorry but data from a ton of weather stations on land in California is going to be a lot better than from a random plane or ship, or derived from satellite data. That is the truth and is why we have seen such massive changes in the models throughout this winter within even 24 hours. You're talking surface data which sensors over sea actually give you. But this argument is used all the time and it's simply overblown. Yes we have seen changes and the ones occurring now have not been pretty. It could however jog a bit north at the last minute so NYC needs to be on the lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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