IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I try and tell people all the time that WxBell maps are usually over done and shouldn't be trusted and people ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yeah ive been thinking of that since I read your post earlier...although the Euro has the WAA wave still pretty weak. The Euro won't pick up on that at all,well it may but it will probably be too low on the QPF same as the GFS, I'm banking on the RGEM to be the only model that sees it and perhaps the HRR and RAP as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember march of last year....climo won even as the precip starting falling... this really has very little in common with the March storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well basic orographic lift makes more snow (& QPF in general) in places like the Blue Ridge Mountains a virtual certainty versus the coastal plain... The storm vista maps are roughly 0.25" or so dryer than WxBell. This is a big storm for the central Apps. I agree with some of the mets on here calling for this to be even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This thread is a joke. I have the information right in front of me, and from now I'll be keeping it to myself. Good luck with your 2-4" at best. We appreciate the info but it's your manner of posting that rubs folks the wrong way ... condescending and antagonistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BTW looks like the NWS was definitely smart in playing it conservative from the start and not going with the higher 10+" amounts even when some of the models were showing that. Yeah Upton had a real good discussion a few nights ago how they felt this might end up south of us….they never bought into any north trend, even when the models had 12+ for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The bickering/whining/trolling is getting absolutely ridiculous. Hopefully some of the offenders (no need for me to name names) take a timeout or get restricted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro won't pick up on that at all,well it may but it will probably too low on the QPF same as the GFS, I'm banking on the RGEM to be the only model that sees it and perhaps the HRR and RAP as we get closer. yeah the short-range models will do better with that for sure....I think the short range models will be more critical than even usual in last minute changes with this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doesn't wxbell have access to the higher resolution Euro data than Stormvista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah Upton had a real good discussion a few nights ago how they felt this might end up south of us….they never bought into any north trend, even when the models had 12+ for us I guess I'll be eating crow. It's times like this I'm glad this is my hobby and not my profession. I think Upton downgrades the watches to advisories later. North of White Plains probably doesn't average 3" so no advisory north of NYC. Down here it's probably a high advisory event, 4-6" or 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The storm vista maps are roughly 0.25" or so dryer than WxBell. This is a big storm for the central Apps. I agree with some of the mets on here calling for this to be even further south. That is very strange...it was my understanding that when a QPF map is formulated...it is simply a matter of connecting the isopleths between one projected station total & another...how that can manage to be fouled up...I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The shortwave energy swinging around Great Lakes is all strung out, like a polar front. That hard for southern stream wave to interact or phase it. The only thing it can really do like that it suppress and shear out the southern stream wave. This is trends all the models that, I don't like seeing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mid Atlantic special, very unusual for early March. At this point I'm starting to wonder if we will get much if anything. You're still looking at 5-8. Don't be so drastic. Take the means of all of the data, not just the worst model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We appreciate the info but it's your manner of posting that rubs folks the wrong way ... condescending and antagonistic. That's what happens when someone is telling you that your info is wrong when you have it right in front of you and they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doesn't wxbell have access to the higher resolution Euro data than Stormvista? IDK about Stormvista but WB has the high res ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why in an NYC metro thread is everyone so concerned about the qpf in DC -- you realize the lunacy right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That is very strange...it was my understanding that when a QPF map is formulated...it is simply a matter of connecting the isopleths between one projected station total & another...how that can manage to be fouled up...I don't know. DT had a blurb about higher resolution Euro data on WXbell. * ABOUT THOSE EUROPEAN MODEL MAPS *** Again I have read the argument or the suggestion being made by some out there that it is illegal to show the European model. That is NOT correct. Weatherbell has claims on the high resolution 0.125 degree version of the European model. The ECMWF has released publicly the "regular" European version which is run at 0.5 degrees. This is the European model you find on ECMWF web site.... as well as the Penn state Ewall cite... and over on the Unisys website... over on the Montreal website... .. and the European model you finds over on Allan Huffman's American weather model website. It is not repeat not illegal or unlawful to post the European model at this regular resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When do the models that are better with short term forecast roll again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I try and tell people all the time that WxBell maps are usually over done and shouldn't be trusted and people ignore it. The wb qpf maps are high res maps and are fine. You speak with such conviction I just have to step in here. Ryan uses the qpf off the soundings when he created the maps. Snow maps are different issue. I will let the phd out of the naval jet lab know that u are certain his maps r wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DT had a blurb about higher resolution Euro data on WXbell. * ABOUT THOSE EUROPEAN MODEL MAPS *** Again I have read the argument or the suggestion being made by some out there that it is illegal to show the European model. That is NOT correct. Weatherbell has claims on the high resolution 0.125 degree version of the European model. The ECMWF has released publicly the "regular" European version which is run at 0.5 degrees. This is the European model you find on ECMWF web site.... as well as the Penn state Ewall cite... and over on the Unisys website... over on the Montreal website... .. and the European model you finds over on Allan Huffman's American weather model website. It is not repeat not illegal or unlawful to post the European model at this regular resolution. Higher resolution or not...if DCA & Baltimore are both projected to receive 0.7 inches of precip in a given span by a specific model...it does not make sense that a QPF chart for that same model during that same period would have them in a 1.00 inch zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why in an NYC metro thread is everyone so concerned about the qpf in DC -- you realize the lunacy right??Because that's where the storm is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Higher resolution or not...if DCA & Baltimore are both projected to receive 0.7 inches of precip in a given span by a specific model...it does not make sense that a QPF chart for that same model during that same period would have them in a 1.00 inch zone... Having re-read Bluewave's post and sort of digesting it...I assume he means that there are really two separate & distinct model runs for ECMWF QPF...thus accounting for the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The storm vista maps are roughly 0.25" or so dryer than WxBell. This is a big storm for the central Apps. I agree with some of the mets on here calling for this to be even further south. any further south and the Philly news outlets will look terrible. All media is talking about a huge snow storm with 12 inches likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Because that's where the storm is? true so it should be discussed in the mid-atl thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 any further south and the Philly news outlets will look terrible. All media is talking about a huge snow storm with 12 inches likely. That's why no one should ever "lock in a foot of snow" or call for a complete miss south/rain more than 72 hours from a storm. It makes you look that much more foolish when something changes. With or without this storm, it's been a great winter. Central Park should hopefully break 60" with this snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 true so it should be discussed in the mid-atl thread...Not trying to troll, but the reality is that the snow that was modeled for NYC is now modeled for DC. That is the reason why people are talking about DC's modeled snow...it used to be their modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Where's all the " this is gonna come north next run" posters from last night? Lol sorry U can delete this but I had to say it after the beating I took Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Where's all the " this gonna gonna come north next run" posters from last night? Lol sorry U can delete this but I had to say it after the beating I took LOL. Until we see a model tick north, the sound trend is not even over. No model at 12z did anything but trend even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is the third event in a row upton will bust horribly on the high end of their snowfall maps as close to 24 hours away. Why do they keep on shooting so high?! Like I said yesterday when they throw out a big forecast you can almost bet it won't happen. Almost all our big storms they will last to the party on big snowfall forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is the third event in a row upton will bust horribly on the high end of their snowfall maps as close to 24 hours away. Why do they keep on shooting so high?! Like I said yesterday when they throw out a big forecast you can almost bet it won't happen. Almost all our big storms they will last to the party on big snowfall forecast Please keep nws bashing in the banter thread. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.