forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hr 60 delmarva is hit hard…overall a trend south from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NYC is barely 0.25"+ this run and that seems generous seeing as none of the panels show anything more than what would be very light snow or flurries. 0.50"+ is south of Philly. Keep riding the GFS. I can't nail home hard enough why expectations should be even lower than 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like close to .35 for NYC this run give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Omg.. i didnt expect it to move south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ACY south is 0.75"+ and most of DE is 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 qpf .25+ for Nyc .50 to ttn-blm .75 to acy South of the mason dixon line still 1.00+ dca and baltimore still crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It wasn't long ago I saw on post on here that the energy that enters on the West Coast exists at the same latitude on the East Coast...seems the Euro is trying to fulfill that hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 1"+ for all of the DC area. This looks like 2/6/10 but even further south on the Euro and not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NYC is barely 0.25"+ this run and that seems generous seeing as none of the panels show anything more than what would be very light snow or flurries. 0.50"+ is south of Philly. Keep riding the GFS. I can't nail home hard enough why expectations should be even lower than 3-6". Stop! .35 for nyc .50 gets to ttn dca/bwi still get hit hard…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mid Atlantic special, very unusual for early March. At this point I'm starting to wonder if we will get much if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is way south, borderline even for DC area, wow, didn't expect this. 1"+ for all of the DC area. This looks like 2/6/10 but even further south on the Euro and not as robust. Mods please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most times the Euro is to dry within 24 hours of a storm. Happens almost all the time. GFS more accurate at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .50 into cnj on the euro. Last 3 runs of euro into cnj..80 .70 .50 It's on the lower end of the guidance. But it is the euro and is noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Has DC gotten a 15+ inch storm in march..or this is the first?. I see more than 1.5 qpf on the euro for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most times the Euro is to dry within 24 hours of a storm. Happens almost all the time. GFS more accurate at this point this is a common misconception, the Euro is still the most accurate at this range. FWIW, the qpf on the Euro and GFS aren't all that different on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Stop! .35 for nyc .50 gets to ttn dca/bwi still get hit hard…. Their was nothing wrong with my post, you're not a mod and you're not a met either and you need to stop telling other posters what to do, including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most times the Euro is to dry within 24 hours of a storm. Happens almost all the time. GFS more accurate at this point The euro is plenty wet just not for nyc/north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most if the guidance is around .50 in nyc and .75 into cnj when totaling up all the guidance. If you are going to manage risk u include all the data. Not just what looks good or bad. Those are the means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Has DC gotten a 15+ inch storm in march..or this is the first?. I see more than 1.5 qpf on the euro for them The euro has them at 50 tomorrow and starting as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Has DC gotten a 15+ inch storm in march..or this is the first?. I see more than 1.5 qpf on the euro for them Some of that is rain on the Euro and other models for DC. They are 57 tomorrow, so the cold air will take some time to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .50 into cnj on the euro. Last 3 runs of euro into cnj..80 .70 .50 It's on the lower end of the guidance. But it is the euro and is noted. Just goes to show how a further south PV extension can make a big difference from Wednesdays forecast. The southern stream is virtually unchanged. 12 Wednesday 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The euro has them at 50 tomorrow and starting as rain yup, but the bulk of the precip is snow for them, a great run for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Their was nothing wrong with my post, you're not a mod and you're not a met either and you need to stop telling other posters what to do, including me. Well, you did make two posts within 7 minutes of each other (both based on your interpretation of the ECMWF)...one saying "this is borderline for DC"...and a second saying "1.00+ (liquid equivalent, i.e. 10 inches of snow approx.) for DC area"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just goes to show how a slightly further south PV extension can make a big difference from Wednesdays forecast. The southern stream is virtually unchanged. 12 Wednesday f120.gif 12z today f48.gif From day one it was all about the PV…SNE was harping on a north trend because it was a sw flow event, it the end this is similar to February 2010 with the pv position and having the final say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yup, but the bulk of the precip is snow for them, a great run for DC. They deserve a good storm.. we had a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Snow maps show 10-12" for DC and 2-4" from just north of Trenton to just south of 84. Nothing north of HPN. Philly southward is 4-6" until you get into extreme southern NJ and northern DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well, you did make two posts within 7 minutes of each other (both based on your interpretation of the ECMWF)...one saying "this is borderline for DC"...and a second saying "1.00+ (liquid equivalent, i.e. 10 inches of snow approx.) for DC area"... Plus don't forget the post that stated "the euro is really dry across the country" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is way south, borderline even for DC area, wow, didn't expect this. borderline, DC gets almost 1.5qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just goes to show how a slightly further south PV extension can make a big difference from Wednesdays forecast. The southern stream is virtually unchanged. 12 Wednesday f120.gif 12z today f48.gif I said the other day 50 miles I'm numerical modeling over 3 days over north America is the width of an envelope. That's always inside the spray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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