IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Too much model casting here and not enough pattern recognition. You're not going to get a big storm in here unless the first wave really over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For folks saying it will come north, sure, based on climo, but we don't have climo in this case, it's an anomolous PV crushing it south-climo means zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Got 2 inches of snow from that storm in Brooklyn while my aunt in Staten Island got 7. I had maybe 2.5" at my house. Watching that mega band right off the beach all day was excruciating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I doubt this will go any more futher south with the PNA rising. dude the storm will do whatever it wants regardless of what some lines on a computer generated graph are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ggem is .50+ from 78 south. ..25+ north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I just want the models to hold as I'm south of the city and majority of models show .50+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This will come north..look a the date and the pattern..DC does not get a foot in a overunning event and we get a few inches and it's March..It will be raining in DC on Monday Eh.....we also don't regularly go down to the single digits with highs struggling out of the teens around this time of year either Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I just want the models to hold as I'm south of the city and majority of models show .50+ QPF. I think you're gonna see CNJ 5-8", SNJ 8-10"+. North of 78 probably sees a more drastic cut off. Any ticks north is a whole different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NWS Latest shows just that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This happens with every storm. People freak out when the models go south or north and then when the models shift to a favorable track, people rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SCT folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gefs qpf matches the op, perhaps a hair drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There is no big storm north of 78 the nyc area is looking at about 6 inches but enough for a winter storm warning with a sharp cut off once north of 80 where it's no big deal. But a mod snowstorm will take place into cnj with 8 plus and a major storm in snj where close to 12 will fall Just because you are not in the max area should not blind anyone to what's being modeled to you're south. There is plenty of model support for a warning type event south in the I 78 corridor. If you chose to ignore it upton Mt holly and the models disagree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There is no big storm north of 78 the nyc area is looking at about 6 inches but enough for a winter storm warning with a sharp cut off once north of 80 where it's no big deal. But a mod snowstorm will take place into cnj with 8 plus and a major storm in snj where loser to 12 will fall Just because you are not in the max area should not blind anyone to what's being modeled to you're south. There is plenty of model support for a warning type event south in the I 78 corridor. If you chose to ignore it upton Mt holly and the models disagree with you. I don't think anyone is ignoring it. The sourthward trend is real. Is there still time for it to come north? of course. But is it likely? Probably not. I think once people realize the heaviest wont be falling IMBY they get discouraged and dismiss the storm entirely .. Still an awesome widespread event for March. Happy for our friends down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think a general 4-8 for the whole NYC Metro region is likely. Less accum to the north(approaching 4 for Hudson Valley) with more south and east (some places approaching 8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the 12Z SPC WRF...albeit at the end of its range is supporting my idea that first wave is gonna surprise us big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the 12Z SPC WRF...albeit at the end of its range is supporting my idea that first wave is gonna surprise us big time Where is this first wave? Per that it looks like one continou s precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Where is this first wave? Per that it looks like one continou s precip shield... Pretty much everything on the radar from SRN Ohio on northeast is with the first wave of overrunning, anything SW of that is with the main 2nd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Take thd 3-6 and run.....weenies talking about 6plus just assume a forecast is just taking the highest model qpf and times it by the ratio...please learn Tell that to NWS... Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BASTARDI: "@BigJoeBastardi: JMA still further north Southern branch 30 meters stronger, northern 30 meters weaker, makes 75 mile dif in shift north" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12z 4K NAM was a beast on the front end, and plenty cold especially just NW of I-95. 3 hours of light snow Sunday morning, then a lull, then 6-9 hours of light to moderate snow Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Isnt the JMA always the one suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BASTARDI: "@BigJoeBastardi: JMA still further north Southern branch 30 meters stronger, northern 30 meters weaker, makes 75 mile dif in shift north" The 12z JMA is 1.00" from I-84 south. That would be an amazing hit for our area. You have to add together the two graphics for final QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Isnt the JMA always the one suppressed? No you're thinking Navgem. The JMA usually shows a big hit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No you're thinking Navgem. The JMA usually shows a big hit for us Which is why bastardi brings it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12z 4K NAM was a beast on the front end, and plenty cold especially just NW of I-95. 3 hours of light snow Sunday morning, then a lull, then 6-9 hours of light to moderate snow Sunday night. Probably our best hope at this point assuming its cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12z JMA is 1.00" from I-84 south. That would be an amazing hit for our area. You have to add together the two graphics for final QPF. 1 plus looks like it's trenton South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JMA total Cut back from its 0z run. And 1" not not make it to I84 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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