KEITH L.I Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cant escape from it but the cutoff will be like Feb 6, 2010 except just north of I-80 instead IMO Totally different pattern and it was early Feb..that was a Miller A,this is overunning..big difference! this will come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The UKMET is now the driest run at 12z, even the GGEM is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The UKMET is now the driest run at 12z, even the GGEM is better Ggem is pretty good isn't it, 3-5" by hour 48 with more to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sunday? As in the initial wave or next week?Initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The UKMET is now the driest run at 12z, even the GGEM is better This will come north..look a the date and the pattern..DC does not get a foot in a overunning event and we get a few inches and it's March..It will be raining in DC on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Totally different pattern and it was early Feb..that was a Miller A,this is overunning..big difference! this will come northI'm with ya...these always seem to tick n at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Initial wave. The GFS finds new ways each run to not want that initial wave, first it was drier than all models, this run it was trying to push it south of all the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't give up all hope yet guys...there is still some time for this to come back north albeit that window is shrinking but will only take a minor shift and everyone knows some of these models are flopping hundred miles or so each run. Agree . It will not take much to go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agree . It will not take much to go north. Anthony. You will b under a winter storm warning tomorrw. Don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The weenie in me is hoping for a tick north but the realistic thinks either things stay as they are hopefully or tick south. We seem to be downplaying the PV too much and the shortwave is too weak to overcome it. I think places near D.C are sitting pretty right now and perhaps Philly and S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This will come north..look a the date and the pattern..DC does not get a foot in a overunning event and we get a few inches and it's March..It will be raining in DC on Monday Lol unless the euro takes a big shift north I think the writing is on the wall for a mid Atlantic special this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM hits the mid atlantic hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Someone will be blasted on the first wave because of a mesoscale band, they always form somewhere in that sort of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM hits the mid atlantic hard. what about for nyc metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 what about for nyc metro? Maybe 2-5 inches at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In better news the GGEM brings the late week storm up the coast & the GFS was damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In better news the GGEM brings the late week storm up the coast & the GFS was damn close. The models are starting to show cold air for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems odd this will be a south of the mason event for the following reasons... 1. Climo/early march (this would be a once in a 30-40 year event for them) 2. PV is not pressing that hugely (no huge high is present to our north, some high pressure but nothing of note 3. No significant nao 4. Huge se ridge/high, warmth 5. Energetic warm/wet southern system But we'll see...models have been going in a surprising direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I might have to eat crow on the suppression, the PV looks aligned in a way that this is forced too far south for many. That can still change but it could be a 3-6" deal for around the city/coast and less north. Probably 6-10" for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The MJO could solidly be in phase 8 next week and things have gotten a lot colder so the snow threats may not be over just yet. I'll be happy with anything at this point from this and places that haven't benefitted quite as much will get their share from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The MJO could solidly be in phase 8 next week and things have gotten a lot colder so the snow threats may not be over just yet. I'll be happy with anything at this point from this and places that haven't benefitted quite as much will get their share from this. Late next week is our next chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agree . It will not take much to go north. The storm could also trend south another 30 miles and then we're all toast even NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The storm could also trend south another 30 miles and then we're all toast even NYC I doubt this will go any more futher south with the PNA rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The dry air on the north end will eat a lot of what radar might depict as falling snow. I remember there being strong echos overhead for a time on Feb 6, 2010 but there was little making it to the ground, just flurries much of the time. North of White Plains might not have much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The dry air on the north end will eat a lot of what radar might depict as falling snow. I remember there being strong echos overhead for a time on Feb 6, 2010 but there was little making it to the ground, just flurries much of the time. North of White Plains might not have much at all. Got 2 inches of snow from that storm in Brooklyn while my aunt in Staten Island got 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Late next week is our next chance. Late next week is our next chance. Meh, time to start thinking of dusting off the fishing gear. See ya at the Bay Ridge flats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The dry air on the north end will eat a lot of what radar might depict as falling snow. I remember there being strong echos overhead for a time on Feb 6, 2010 but there was little making it to the ground, just flurries much of the time. North of White Plains might not have much at all. Agree. I'm thinking I'm likely shut out here. Cloudy and 20 all day. Hudson valley is screwed too with the cold dry air draining down the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seems odd this will be a south of the mason event for the following reasons... 1. Climo/early march (this would be a once in a 30-40 year event for them) 2. PV is not pressing that hugely (no huge high is present to our north, some high pressure but nothing of note 3. No significant nao 4. Huge se ridge/high, warmth 5. Energetic warm/wet southern system But we'll see...models have been going in a surprising direction you forgot to include the mammoth -EPO block which is in essence mirroring the effects of a strong Greenland block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This will come north..look a the date and the pattern..DC does not get a foot in a overunning event and we get a few inches and it's March..It will be raining in DC on MondayWeeniecasting ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The setup is not the same as 2/6/10 so do not compare the two. The forecast amounts are a lot more uniform than that event. There's no major blocking pattern, no strong 50/50 low, that was a different animal altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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