IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes NYC will. I don't know if anyone realizes this. It keeps on trending stronger over the last several runs.We are still a day out so we can still expect more shifts. What model today gives you enough confidence for a warning in NYC? 4-6" is advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 According to wb total precip. The 1" line is into southern Monmouth and as stated before nyc is .43....what a cut off Def a steep gradient. You get that with pis tilted troughs under confluence. I was on long island in 2010 so I've been in the flip side. Think cnj is ok. I think nyc is ok. I think to I 80 is 4 inches. But north of there Lotta dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What model today gives you enough confidence for a warning in NYC? 4-6" is advisory level. Rgem, nam, gfs...all have NYC either at 6" or within 20 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes NYC will. I don't know if anyone realizes this. It keeps on trending stronger over the last several runs.We are still a day out so we can still expect more shifts. Short of this closing off at H5 which hasn't happened yet, it will get sheared out. Stronger southern vort and weaker PV and we would have been talking 36 hours of moderate snow. Ala PD2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No model currently supports more than a high end advisory event in this area. Down south where criteria is less warnings will likely be hoisted. Please be happy for all of us from Monmouth on south. You know there are many times you get snow and we get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET is ugly…way south... not a good set of 12z runs so far for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has 12+ for SNJ and Philly. Not far away for NYC. This can still bump north. That would require a 150 miles north shift my friend. Do you see any scientific reason for that? In fact, the 3 biggies the King, Nam & GFS havent shown any marked north shift at all ( though NAM out 2 lunch all the way on this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Rgem, nam, gfs...all have NYC either at 6" or within 20 milesNone of them show widespread 7" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Please be happy for all of us from Monmouth on south. You know there are many times you get snow and we get rain.I am happy for you guys, except that I still think some have too high expectations, even in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For the gfs Wb maps show 1" getting into kblm..About 0.70" in extreme NW monmouth..Nws 6-10 looks like a good call imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET is ugly…way south... not a good set of 12z runs so far for us Looks less than .25 for NYC using the Plymouth State maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am happy for you guys, except that I still think some have too high expectations, even in CNJ. Every model has between .6 to .8 for us even the crappy nam. So at this point there is some consistency down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks less than .25 for NYC using the Plymouth State mapsThis is why you expect 2-4" and maybe some get lucky and see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET is ugly…way south... not a good set of 12z runs so far for us and correct me if Im worng but that very same UKIE was showing 8-10 laste last night! most defenitly NOT a good sign IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Still some room for improvement for city folks but as for myself and the other up here in the LHV and mid HV... I'm throwing in the towel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That would require a 150 miles north shift my friend. Do you see any scientific reason for that? In fact, the 3 biggies the King, Nam & GFS havent shown any marked north shift at all ( though NAM out 2 lunch all the way on this) Yes. The PV can change in a heartbeat. UKMET is ugly…way south... not a good set of 12z runs so far for us 3-6 is good for March. People need to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lets get the storm on the coast first. Currently its stronger then the models predicted at this time. Dont give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/1 12z Summary ( NYC - 5 boroughs / NE-NJ, CNJ) SREF: 0.70 - 0.80 / 4 - 8 inches of snow NAM: 0.60 - 0.85 / 4 - 8 inches of snow GFS: 0.45 - 0.75 / 4 - 10 inches of snow GEFS: UKMET : 0.25 - 0.50 / 2 - 5 inches of snow GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Every model has between .6 to .8 for us even the crappy nam. So at this point there is some consistency down hereI think Monmouth County will see the most snow in this immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 WSWatch for most of the area. Excluding extreme NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Take thd 3-6 and run.....weenies talking about 6plus just assume a forecast is just taking the highest model qpf and times it by the ratio...please learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Still some room for improvement for city folks but as for myself and the other up here in the LHV and mid HV... I'm throwing in the towel lolWe'll get ours Sunday I believe. Monday looks dry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 WSWatch for most of the area. Excluding extreme NNJ Looks identical to 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/1 12z Summary ( NYC - 5 boroughs / NE-NJ, CNJ) SREF: 0.70 - 0.80 / 4 - 8 inches of snow NAM: 0.60 - 0.85 / 4 - 8 inches of snow GFS: 0.45 - 0.75 / 4 - 10 inches of snow GEFS: UKMET : 0.25 - 0.50 / 2 - 5 inches of snow GGEM: Thanks for posting that. I would def shave a little off the Ukie's .25 though. Looks like .2 for KNYC that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We'll get ours Sunday I believe. Monday looks dry though. Sunday? As in the initial wave or next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cant escape from it but the cutoff will be like Feb 6, 2010 except just north of I-80 instead IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sunday? As in the initial wave or next week? Tomorrow. There is no 2nd wave for northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't give up all hope yet guys...there is still some time for this to come back north albeit that window is shrinking but will only take a minor shift and everyone knows some of these models are flopping hundred miles or so each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tomorrow. There is no 2nd wave for northern areas Right that's what I thought u meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cant escape from it but the cutoff will be like Feb 6, 2010 except just north of I-80 instead IMO Eh should be nothing like it really...n nj should get 2-4/3-6 while c/s nj gets 5-10" or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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