rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably not a lot of snow for anyone around this area on this run-the initial wave is borderline with temps and may be a lot of sleet, the second wave is south. Depends where you live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The North trend is great to see for many here, but the Euro remains the biggest wildcard/headscratcher for me. Thinking that 12z is so big given sampling, etc. that the NAM/RGEM/GFS are privy to ATM. Tracking is such a huge part of the fun/misery! Amen to that! Especially with this one, talk about a roller coaster ride. Good trends so far this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Pauly, Right in line with other models but hoping GFS comes north by 75 miles. Think NYC ends up with up .75. And Monmouth closer to an 1 inch. Closer to the 6z GFS and the UKMET At 12 to 1 in early March you have to take it. Think the .5 gets to the NJ NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wouldnt trust the nam especially with these wild swings every six hours in the short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not sure how much the 12z nam loses to mixing/rain on sunday but still lookls like a general 3 - 6 snow from nyc to cnj. More in some spots. Shift this north just 25 - 50 miles and its a big deal. Still 36 hours to go and over 1500 miles for this storm. So 25 - 50 miles is small potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I just don't think you can trust any model that is shifting 200 miles with each run! HUGE GFS and Euro runs about to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 STOP THE BICKERING TAKE IT TO BANTER. This thread is for forecast discussion ONLY not **** measuring, thank you and welcome to the start of the 12z model suite everyone. That said a 50-60 shift north on the 12z GFS would go a long way, the 6z GFS was a step in the right direction. Notice how i didnt mention either 6z/12z NAM runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z nam snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You are high. That describes literally no one on that forum. Not one. Please take this garbage out of here. This storm threat is showing the bad side of our subforum again and it has to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam is swinging the heaviest axis back and forth 100-200 miles per run now...we'll see if it is justified or throw out material after seeing the ret of the 12z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC area is going to lose a lot of that first batch of precipitation to rain and taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z nam snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You pasted it wrong lol Noticed that lol fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC area is going to lose a lot of that first batch of precipitation to rain and taint. The NAM is likely still too warm. Other models are significantly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seriously, the next posters who start arguing like earlier below this post are going to miss this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I would still bet the nam is just a few ticks too far south based on the trajectory of the sw and the positioning of the pv. I don't trust the huge jumps obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I would still bet the nam is just a few ticks too far south based on the trajectory of the sw and the positioning of the pv. I don't trust the huge jumps obviously. I agree we're only talking 50 or so miles for a nice hit for most and I don't see how that's not very possible. Lets see where the rest of the 12z takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Noticed that lol fixed it Pasting is easier on here than other forums where you have to remember codes. Okay no more OT, back to model talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 we ae dealing with a strong March storm from the Pacific...there's going to be a lot of over riding with this set up...if we get 4-6" it's nothing to sneeze at this time of year...The cold air will be here for a while so snow chances will still be on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 common sense approach to this model mayhem is to just keep the Winter Storm Watch in place the way it is worded now. Don't make any changes till the models stop these 200 mile wild swings because obviously they are not handling the data being fed into them correctly yet. There is still enough info to support at least a final advisory or Winter Storm Warning for anyone north of I-70 and south of I -80 - IMO that will be the area where the heaviest precip falls from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The short wave looked more organized though. Too many erratic swings and it's a bit out of range beyond 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Confluence was stronger overall than on the 12z NAM than the 0z and 6z NAM. Not a good trend, from this model, for heavy snow in the NYC area. Not a trend Miguel but it It wouldn't take much of a north shift for alot more people to get in on the bigger snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The short wave looked more organized though. Too many erratic swings and it's a bit out of range beyond 48 hrs. If this was a year or two ago I would agree that 48 hrs is the NAMS range but given the year the NAMS had I would say 12 hrs is it's range.. And that's being generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Can we stop with the 12-1 ratio stuff....assume 10-1 most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well at this point it seems like at least 3-6 inches across the area is likely anything more would be a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 we ae dealing with a strong March storm from the Pacific...there's going to be a lot of over riding with this set up...if we get 4-6" it's nothing to sneeze at this time of year...The cold air will be here for a while so snow chances will still be on the table... 6" would be great for March since it would only be the 5th 6" or more March event for NYC since 1990. It would also put is in striking distance of the second snowiest season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think it's safe to buy a Euro/GFS compromise. NAM doesn't seem to make sense on its thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is why you think just because a model is consistent, doesn't mean we live by it. The GFS clearly still isn't up to par. In a sense, it was the most inaccurate model trying to portray a much more amped , further north system. This one definitely goes to the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The erratic shifts in the NAM give it no credibility IMO. I'm riding the GFS and Euro on this one. We deal with the NAM and high resolution models tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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