Kaner587 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFs are actually colder than 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/6/2003 is now the # 1 analog for a Neutral ENSO at 48 hours on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&flg= http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/06-Mar-03-SurfaceMaps.html considering this I would be more concerned with precip type issues south of the metro then all heavy snow and north of the metro would have the snowblowers ready also notice 2/9/1994 still makes the cut hanging out at the bottom of the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How warm are we talking on the srefs? Relative to the ttn area? My apologies, they are not warmer, actually slightly colder than 3z. TTN goes below freezing at the surface at around 6z Monday, which is about the same maybe a little earlier than 3z. 850s go below 0 by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFs are actually colder than 03z If the 0.5" makes it to BOS, does the 1" make it to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not surprising based on the 6z nam I'm not understanding why there is this consistent parallel being drawn between the NAM and the SREF. 1 of 20 some odd models is NAM related; that's it. Therefore it is incorrect to deduce that if the NAM makes a shift in a certain direction, the SREF will correspondingly follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sref's are cold for the NYC area with .75 accumulated QPF, 12:1 ratios even with some rain/ taint to start its roughly 8-9" of snow. Not a bad start to the day folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the 0.5" makes it to BOS, does the 1" make it to us?No we're in the broad .75 stripe but the .5 line does indeed make it BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know but some of their expectations are for 12-18" from what I've readHa! you better learn how to read Ralphie boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Heavy FWIW, but here's the graphic from the 9z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ha! you better learn how to read Ralphie boygo back and read the posts from when 0z came in then u can see who needs reading glasses lolPerhaps they tempered expectations since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 just an FYI the NAM is rolling. 6Z was looking good with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6z gefs is a little north of the OP. FWIW RPM crushes nyc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 s/w stronger then 6z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF plumes are about 2-3 in snowier for everyone in the area than they were at 3z, for reference at 03z KBLM didn't have any members show 9 inches or more, now there are 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nobody has the PBP or it must be south...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nobody has the PBP or it must be south...LOL Too early to say. And again to the people cancelling the storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM looking good so far. Light ZR/Rain to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nobody has the PBP or it must be south...LOL I'd do the play by play if I ever cared what the NAM showed. Do you want a link for the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Too early to say. And again to the people cancelling the storm yesterday. This JM! This is exactly why you never freak out or change any predictions you have made. 0z tonight would have been the time to do that if this had stayed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 850 0 line 30 miles further south at 0z Monday than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Confluence is stronger initially on the 12z NAM. First wave is colder and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 More moisture, s/w digged a little bit. Moderate IP/ZR at HR36. 850s really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 850 0 line 30 miles further south at 0z Monday than 6z.Hour 33 the 0 line is through the city. But it's warm through CNJ as the precip moves inKnyc looks good temp wise from hour 36 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 more* This should be a wetter run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Little colder slightly farther s thru 36 vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The south part was sarcasm in my post before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Surface south of PHL - 36. 850 over TTN-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/6/2003 is now the # 1 analog for a Neutral ENSO at 48 hours on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&flg= http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/06-Mar-03-SurfaceMaps.html considering this I would be more concerned with precip type issues south of the metro then all heavy snow and north of the metro would have the snowblowers ready also notice 2/9/1994 still makes the cut hanging out at the bottom of the list 3/6/2003 is now the # 1 analog for a Neutral ENSO at 48 hours on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&flg= http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/06-Mar-03-SurfaceMaps.html considering this I would be more concerned with precip type issues south of the metro then all heavy snow and north of the metro would have the snowblowers ready also notice 2/9/1994 still makes the cut hanging out at the bottom of the list 3/6/2003 is now the # 1 analog for a Neutral ENSO at 48 hours on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&flg= http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/06-Mar-03-SurfaceMaps.html considering this I would be more concerned with precip type issues south of the metro then all heavy snow and north of the metro would have the snowblowers ready also notice 2/9/1994 still makes the cut hanging out at the bottom of the list 3/6/03 was quite the dud in these parts. Snowed all day and stuck to the grass. I believe Bloomie canceled school and looked like an idiot. So I hope it isn't like that and it would really be nice to see a solid storm in March. It has been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM is back to reality, it took away the moronic low it had at 45 hours near WV which caused the whole 6z run to looks ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All snow at 42. Light to Mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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