REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I thought I read somewhere thay there was plenty of sampling offshore from the buoys? There is pretty good sensing but look at the charts that doorman posted. The southern stream looks more energetic than modeled currently, the 12Z run is going to determine whether this does put NYC back in the game for major snows or the 6z run was just an amped up blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The North trend is great to see for many here, but the Euro remains the biggest wildcard/headscratcher for me. Thinking that 12z is so big given sampling, etc. that the NAM/RGEM/GFS are privy to ATM. Tracking is such a huge part of the fun/misery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A question in general for the board regarding various models and sampling data. I was under the impression that low pressure centers traveling roughly through the four corners area tend to have greater outcome variability. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 The North trend is great to see for many here, but the Euro remains the biggest wildcard/headscratcher for me. Thinking that 12z is so big given sampling, etc. that the NAM/RGEM/GFS are privy to ATM. Tracking is such a huge part of the fun/misery! Cant think of a better time to say "12z suite is going hold weenie dreams in its hands" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agree fully.We said last nite the ncep models were sometimes poor in the mid range with splut flow southern branch features. KNYC gets to .75. Monmouth county to 1 inch. Still looking at bout 12 to 1 ish IMO The GFS was a hug tick N. at 0Z that 1 inch line was at AC. Now its just S of the Driscoll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here is a table of the GFS liq. equivs. starting with yesterdays 06Z 1.03" 12Z .77" 18Z .40" 0Z .39" Latest 06Z .73" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We said last nite the ncep models were sometimes poor in the mid range with splut flow southern branch features. KNYC gets to .75. Monmouth county to 1 inch. Still looking at bout 12 to 1 ish IMO The GFS was a hug tick N. at 0Z that 1 inch line was at AC. Now its just S of the Driscoll Yeah, it looks like the inversion at 750-850 mb will keep ratios around that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 We said last nite the ncep models were sometimes poor in the mid range with splut flow southern branch features. KNYC gets to .75. Monmouth county to 1 inch. Still looking at bout 12 to 1 ish IMO The GFS was a hug tick N. at 0Z that 1 inch line was at AC. Now its just S of the Driscoll Gut feeling is this is going trend north today. With fresh sampling today for the 6z suite and 0z to a point it looks promising, to what degree north yet to be seen but 12z is going to be a nut house in here paul. Either way .9-1" in this area with 12:1 ratios would still be 10-12" of snow roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it is no great mystery WHY the NAM and the GFS are coming north - more accurate data being fed into the equations because the storm is in range of the west coast sampling - still VERY complex situation now with a few players having to move together down the field at the right speed and direction - somehow 6 - 10 inches seems just about the right totals IMO to be forecasting in the NYC Metro - and then adjust today and tomorrow from there - what does everyone else think ? Agree fully. Add another agree fully. In case anyone is curious, here's what I just said in my email update (I'm not a met, but I have a large email list of coworkers/friends/family I send winter weather updates to, to try to interpret/explain the weather to): So glad I didn't send out an update last night wailing about the big southward shift in the models, which were indicating less snow north of 195/276 in NJ/PA (down to 4-6" or so and even less north of 78). As usual, the NWS is the voice of reason. They did not completely jump on the south trend and have issued Winter Storm Watches for 6-10" snow, south of I-80 (and even down to Balt/DC/DE). And they have been rewarded by the models, as they have shifted back north this morning - crazy stuff. So, we're mostly back to where we were yesterday, with a general 6-10" snowfalll forecast for all of Central/South Jersey, SE PA/Philly, NYC, LI, and most of North Jersey/eastern PA, south of I-80. Snow should begin in earnest late Sunday evening and continue through early Monday afternoon and given temps in the mid/upper 20s, the Monday morning commute is likely to be very difficult with moderate to heavy snow accumulating on all paved, untreated surfaces (and even treated ones when the snow is falling heavily enough). North of I-80 snowfall drops off to 3-6" in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-3" north of I-84), as there would be less precip - that's definitely a bit less than yesterday. However, we're still 36-42 hours from the start of the event and given the chaotic, highly unpredictable nature of the weather, there still could be modest changes in the forecast, especially since the storm just came ashore in California this morning (meaning the initial conditions for the models are now be richer, leading to more accurate modeling). Having said that, though we're getting closer to the event, meaning the "error bars" are narrowing (kind of like the "cone of uncertainty" they show for hurricane tracks, which gets smaller as one gets closer in time), such that the window for large shifts is closing. Let's (ok, maybe "I") hope the general 6-10" prediction verifies. As an aside the "big" snows of 12" or more are unlikely, as the storm just doesn't look powerful enough (or be moving slowly enough) to generate that much snow. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I noticed being from TTN that I am in pretty good shape North or South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gut feeling is this is going trend north today. With fresh sampling today for the 6z suite and 0z to a point it looks promising, to what degree north yet to be seen but 12z is going to be a nut house in here paul. Either way .9-1" in this area with 12:1 ratios would still be 10-12" of snow roughly Early march. Take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 sweet.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_ussm_animation.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html Sweet spot sounds nice. Thanks for the graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I thought I read somewhere thay there was plenty of sampling offshore from the buoys? Not commenting on what you read, but there are only about half a dozen offshore buoys currently producing data in the Pacific between the US-Mex border and the US-Can border. There are another dozen or so offshore heading up towards the Gulf of Alaska. All the rest are within the littoral zone, roughly 0 - 100 km. The offshore realm isn't a particularly dense array of data sources, by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Early march. Take it and run Oh yea i know but even you being level headed the chance to make a run at 95'-96' snowfall record is VERY tempting and perilously close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS way north with precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS way north with precip... I presume the 09Z? You're getting the run much faster than I can (here and on Stormvista). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the models go the way of the 6z nam this will be as bad as march 2001 for the dca crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 09z Srefs bumped way north. .5 north of Bos, need to see how much is snow as it could be warm to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I presume the 09Z? You're getting the run much faster than I can (here and on Stormvista). It's out on the NCEP site. This is the one NCEP product that does make it out as fast or faster than paid sites http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's out on the NCEP site. This is the one NCEP product that does make it out as fast or faster than paid sites http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area Yea my SV sref literally just initialized.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's out on the NCEP site. This is the one NCEP product that does make it out as fast or faster than paid sites http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area Thank you for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yea my SV sref literally just initialized.... Don't forget to give us the totals when you see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 24hr 200mb changes http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= 200mb.gif match it up with the current WV we will get a nice hit---- a nice hit -imho- http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12®ion=he sat_ir_hem_loop-12 (1).gif Doorman Love the real time observations! Nice to see you confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the models go the way of the 6z nam this will be as bad as march 2001 for the dca crew! not really. Sterling NWS is calling for a mix bag with possibly 5+ inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF mean is wetter, north and much warmer. SREFs have been volatile as usual from run to run, and the past few smaller storms have been pretty awful I've thought. Edit: Srefs are actually slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not really. Sterling NWS is calling for a mix bag with possibly 5+ inches of snowI know but some of their expectations are for 12-18" from what I've read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF continues to be VERY encouraging for most of us here. There is one caveat here, and that is the SREF by it's ensemble nature tends to "paint with a broad brush", if you will; meaning the precip shield particularly on the north side is likely way overdone. However, seeing that the axis of heaviest precip moves through Philly up into NYC, places most of us in a VERY good position at this juncture. I still think caution is warranted north of 41N for a big hit (greater than 6" snowfall). All things considered I went to bed last night after 0z GFS expecting the south trend to be over, and I must say I'm very pleased where we are at this point. I agree with the NWS WSW forecasts at this point as well. I think with time the WSW will be expanded to include NE NJ and coastal Conn. and coastal RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF mean is wetter, north and much warmer. SREFs have been volatile as usual from run to run, and the past few smaller storms have been pretty awful I've thought.not surprising based on the 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 not surprising based on the 6z nam This is why it is URGED to use caution analyzing model runs. They will change, SREFS are encouraging to say the least so far ( keep in mind SV takes they're sweet time ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How warm are we talking on the srefs? Relative to the ttn area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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