MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yet the ECM is quite warm at 48 hrs out with temps in the mid 30s in land around ABE and upper 30s NYC to 40s to around 50 in Southern NJ.. If the Polar Vortex is suppressing this south then I would think these temps be colder, no? The PV is suppressing the main vort, not the overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The PV is suppressing the main vort, not the overrunning precip. Again I would think temps would be colder. This really looks like a glorified cold front passage on the models tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A lot of this had to do with a weaker, less consolidated shortwave because a stronger wave would've have pushed the thermal gradient further north and we could have jackpot red by the trends have turned away from that. That I think is more of an issue than the stronger PV. I don't. Even an amped up s/w would get shredded by that PV as it is modeled currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF looks wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3-5" down from 12-15". Imagine what another 36hrs will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM misses us north =/ Dont tell DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Blend the NAM & GFS and what do you get: BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Did the nam really go THAT far north.. what a Disgrace of a model seriously. It jumped 200 miles in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM goes 200 miles north after all the fuss south? This is getting down right silly. I like the average from the GFS and the NAM but come on! The same thinking that we were in too much of a bullseye yesterday with 3 days to go is the same reason why this has a shot at coming north with the GFS and Euro with 2 days left. There are too many players on the field to write this off for NYC. Saturday promises to be an emotional day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow, did the nam really jump that far north? Jesus, talk about a headache. went from DC/Balt, back north 200+ miles. then again take these clown maps with a grain of salt. The NAM certainly went north no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Winter Storm Watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The NAM consolidates the two pieces too much, unfortunately most likely expect it to shift south next run, however it did have a better shortwave... RGEM looks more like the globals, anyone have 54 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The NAM consolidates the two pieces too much, unfortunately most likely expect it to shift south next run, however it did have a better shortwave... RGEM looks more like the globals, anyone have 54 hours? Well if it Does than there will be a HUGE hit for the Metro area since this run gives Upstate the biggest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well if it Does than there will be a HUGE hit for the Metro area since this run gives Upstate the biggest totals. The NAM is putting too much energy with a low out ahead of the main one...It has issues like this a lot....Not trying to rain on your parade as I feel Philly/NYC can do well here...but I've seen this 10000 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like Holly posted WSW for just about all off its area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has a stronger vort out west thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has a stronger vort out west thus far update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 update? So far thru 54 looks a bit north. Great hit cnj and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hr 60 .50 up to NYC and .75 to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BIG hit on the GFS, thats what I'm talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The GFS simply had a better vort coming out of the southwest. I think that will trend even better as we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 1.00+ for Phl Def a bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .75 to ewr Ttn-south 1.00+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 8-10 for NYC and Long Island 12+ snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I can see this becoming a 12-18 inch snow for NYC area easily on the 00Z 3/2 model suite. I think QPF will show 1.00-1.25" for the New York City area in a few runs. It will likely trend north in my opinion and get wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I believe NYC was .4 at 00z This looks to be .6-.7 now on 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well I think the weenies can ease off the ledge for at-least another few hours, till the next suite. NAM came north by alot. GFS bumped up north as well but not by a crazy amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam, gfs both came up north....(nam hugely) one more tick north with the gfs and we are in business.... Plus we are back to a more consolidated low as opposed to a split wave or frontal passage look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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