PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think this is gonna have a sharp feb 6 2010 cutoff some where between NYC and I195. Be interesting to see exactly where. Feb 6 2010, the raritian river was basically the bisection line from a foot to a few inches then nothing just a few miles north. I think . 5 this times into nyc this time. In 2010 it only made it to bulls head in Staten Island. I think the cut off could b I 80 this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think . 5 this times into nyc this time. In 2010 it only made it to bulls head in Staten Island. I think the cut off could b I 80 this time. I'm 10 miles or so from Long Beach and they had several inches and I had several flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Might as well pull out all stops...Australian model is very amped... The CIMSS CRAS is way flat and dry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The CIMSS CRAS is way flat and dry though. Lol it should have the low near Buffalo ... the cras is never flat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1140 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014VALID MAR 01/0000 UTC THRU MAR 04/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...STRONG SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...RAPIDLY SHEARINGTOWARD THE EAST COAST SUN/MON......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE TN/OHVALLEYS/MID-ATLANTIC...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITHTHE STRONG DEEP LYR LOW CENTER OFFSHORE CA THAT WILL BE MOVINGINLAND ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SAT. THE ENERGYAGAIN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BYSUN WHILE SHEARING OUT...AND THE ENERGY WILL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM INTOTHE LWR MS/TN VLYS BY MON WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE SRN PORTIONOF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE LWR MS VLYNEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ASIDE FROM THE NAM BEING ALITTLE STRONGER WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF HEIGHT FALLS INTOCA...THERE IS NOT SPREAD ALOFT DOWNSTREAM AT LEAST UNTIL THESHEARING ENERGY REACHES THE LWR MS/TN VLYS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATESUN THROUGH MON....WHEN THE NAM BEGINS BECOMES A BIT MOREPROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENERGY ENTERING A DEVELOPING MID/UPR LVLCONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. THE 12ZUKMET IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM GLOBAL SPLITTING THE DIFF.AT THE SFC...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEARING ENERGYWILL FOSTER AT LEAST TWO SFC WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN ARCTICFRONTAL ZONE...WITH ONE ON SUN DEVELOPING MOST LIKELY IN THE LEEOF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE EXITINGNEWD OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MON. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z GEMGLOBAL ARE MOST DEVELOPED/STRONGEST WITH THE FIRST WAVE...WITH THE12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ALL MORE SUPPRESSED/FLATTER. ALLOF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLING FARTHERSOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TN VLY WITH THE INITIALWAVE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SECOND WAVE AS THE CORE OF WHAT ISLEFT OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIMS FOR THE EAST COAST. THE00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 12Z ECMWF ARE MORE SUPPRESSEDWITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE TN VLY SUNNIGHT...WITH THE 12Z UKMET FARTHEST NORTH. ALL OF THE MODELS TAKETHIS SECOND WAVE MORE BODILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN MID-ATLANTICMON WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUING FARTHER SOUTH AS HIGHPRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN/ECENSMEAN SOLNS STRONGLY SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF CLUSTERWITH THE UPSTREAM SHEARING ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM WAVEACTIVITY/FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENTS. WILL PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLENDATTM...WITH CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LIMITED CONSIDERING THE OVERALLMODEL SPREAD. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This ..the Korean and the ggem on the French site with the upside down maps always gave me a headache. Anyway seeing the gefs north of the OP probably means the gfs is coming north the next run. The GFS may very well be correct after 60 hours, what I'm not sure of though is if it is underdoing things from 48-60 on the overrunning snows..,.its tended to be very bad on any sort of overrunning induced precip all winter in many storm systems from the Southeast up into the Northeast...it completely blew overrunning in similar setups beyond 24 hours on 3 or 4 occasions I can recall...the ATL snowstorm being one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think . 5 this times into nyc this time. In 2010 it only made it to bulls head in Staten Island. I think the cut off could b I 80 this time. GEFS would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The GFS may very well be correct after 60 hours, what I'm not sure of though is if it is underdoing things from 48-60 on the overrunning snows..,.its tended to be very bad on any sort of overrunning induced precip all winter in many storm systems from the Southeast up into the Northeast...it completely blew overrunning in similar setups beyond 24 hours on 3 or 4 occasions I can recall...the ATL snowstorm being one of them. The EURO at 12z showed a pretty good first batch of overrunning for us, GFS may very well be underdoing that part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol the JMA is seriously juiced up. 1"+ plus nyc and 1.25+ south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any one up that has the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol the JMA is seriously juiced up. 1"+ plus nyc and 1.25+ south of nyc Remember just yesterday at this time almost all major models were showing just that and some slightly more so there was no lol then. those in PHL- BWI are loling now but its who laughs last who laughs best. no rational reason other than Ukie and few of the lesser dependable models to hang hat on but I believe the swing bk begins with the Euro. Hold on to your hat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any one up that has the euro? Out to 24 hours will brb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any one up that has the euro? nope, waiting for a PBP hopefully, doesnt it start shortly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember just yesterday at this time almost all major models were showing just that and some slightly more so there was no lol then. those in PHL- BWI are loling now but its who laughs last who laughs best. no rational reason other than Ukie and few of the lesser dependable models to hang hat on but I believe the swing bk begins with the Euro. Hold on to your hat! I lol at the JMA bc it's nothing like anything else...i also didn't say it was wrong. I just thought it was entertaining to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When people start pulling out the JMA...you know there are problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The JMA typically shows a weenie solution though not so much this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Snowy Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro through 42 hrs 18Z Sunday dry across metro NYC and all of NJ for that matter. 35 degree 2m temp right along Rt 78 32 degree 2m NW of of that by 25-35 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is a lil colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When people start pulling out the JMA...you know there are problems Lol yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Really developd lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 48 hrs 00Z Monday few 100th's across northern 1/3 NJ .20" southen 1/3 NJ 32 2m temp TTN to Sandy Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think people are overreacting a bit at the moment. Still time for this to trend and I don't think it can go any farther south than modeled at this point. What we know is that this will be a cold storm for virtually everyone in this forums, and that we are only a 50 mile north bump as currently modeled to us again seeing 6-10". Also I think the nature that it being early March people are less convinced of ratios. If the 850's are as cold as currently modeled it doesn't matter what month it is we see good snow. I'm expecting more fluff than paste tbh as we look quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hour 48 light snow into CNJ and NYC. Surface 30. 850s minus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hot mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 54 HRS .20" ABE to Sandy Hook .01 - .10 north of that 32 2m TTN to BLM line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow,Euro is pretty far south. Mod precip hits Southern NJ never makes it into central NJ. Mid Alantic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hot mess understatement….72 hrs all but over for northern and central NJ .25" QP tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .5 line up to nyc .6 to 8 for CNJ .01 to .2 hv .1 to .5 nnj north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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