WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks like it'll be a lot of rain to a thump snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is why you always follow the most consistent models. Models that flip around too much like the Nam are huge headaches and should not be taken seriously especially when outside their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks like it'll be a lot of rain to a thump snow Sent from my iPhone There`s zero rain at KNYC on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where the best forcing exists, there will definitely be a narrow band with much higher qpf totals than the models are currently indicating. Models have a notoriously difficult time picking up on the mesoscale banding, particularly at this range. With that said, I think we will see a more narrow and intense band than the GFS is currently advertising. The GFS is too generous with the area coverage of the precip shield to the north. Very cold temps/ low dewpoints and subsidence will "eat away" at the precip shield. I'm looking at this more as a "cold frontal passage" event, where the precip is narrow and intense as the warm air advects over a significant isentropic gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There`s zero rain at KNYC on the NAM yea low levels get cold fast before precip moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No joke, I would rather use the 384hr GFS over the 72hr CRAS. I agree but keep in mind it has nailed a few big events in the past and I like using BDS as a solid example. Handled the PV excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Love it: Monday Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation possible. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yea low levels get cold fast before precip moves in The warmest the 850`s are on its onset are 0c The surface is 30F and they both fall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I just looked at the Nam and it still would drop 10"+ over a large area so it's not like its a disaster. Looks plenty cold once the heavier stuff moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There`s zero rain at KNYC on the NAM The NAM is theoretically rain for all of us on Sunday to start, but it's not even worth the paper it's written on at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM tried to come towards the GFs/Euro but ultimately failed miserably in its attempt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No true. There most certainly is rain in the initial wave. There`s zero rain at KNYC on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM tried to come towards the GFs/Euro but ultimately failed miserably in its attempt tried to take one step forward but fell down the stairs instead oh dont forget everyone the NAM's signature QPF bomb for every storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No true. There most certainly is rain in the initial wave. At what hour ? The .01 being modeled at 66 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In order to ease minds here about the 12z NAM it's heavy snow from about 09z on Monday until about 18z on Monday and then light snow until about 21z Monday. And in that time frame it still dumps nearly an inch of QPF area wide with more west of Philly. The only thing worth noting from the NAM is that my confidence is increasing that we'll have some activity early on Sunday before a break during the afternoon and early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You can pretty much guarantee that any model that follows the CRAS is going to end up wrong. Thatd about where the CRAS should be, it averages around 150-200 miles on occassion N and W of most models...its useful similar to the NOGAPs and NAM to see if its playing into its usual bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Rain at the start? I guess a drizzle to light rain but there's barely any QPF during the first part of the storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At what hour ? The .001 being modeled at 66 ? The NAM actually has between 0.10-0.25" falling before hour 66 for all areas and that would theoretically start as rain or a mixed bag, but my thinking is that if you fast forward to later runs this will end up colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At what hour ? The .01 being modeled at 66 ? The NAM actually has between 0.10-0.25" falling before hour 66 for all areas and that would theoretically start as rain or a mixed bag, but my thinking is that if you fast forward to later runs this will end up colder. Yep and honestly at KNYC probably all rain up to 69 hrs, but I can only see soundings to 60 on Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM actually shows a large area of precipitation over the region from 78 north right into southern New England, if correct it wouldn't just be a spotty shower. Below is the 12k version, the 4k simulated radar is more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM actually has between 0.10-0.25" falling before hour 66 for all areas and that would theoretically start as rain or a mixed bag, but my thinking is that if you fast forward to later runs this will end up colder. At hour 66 850s are plus 1 - the surface is 32 - 33 . .01 falls - ( virga stuff IMO ) The main slug starts at hour 69 at KNYC the surface is 30 and the 850s are at 0 . He said " the NAM is a lot of rain before a thump " That's just not true according to this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There`s zero rain at KNYC on the NAM I really have to disagree. There is without a doubt rain for several hours. In fact, just as much rain as snow as far as duration of precip type. Not saying it's likely, but it does show it. Still 10" of snow following it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's probably more helpful to altogether ignore the NAM at this range. Integrating information that is known to be incorrect can further cloud an already difficult situation/prediction. Sometimes more is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At hour 66 850s are plus 1 - the surface is 32 - 33 . .01 falls - ( virga stuff IMO ) The main slug starts at hour 69 at KNYC the surface is 30 and the 850s are at 0 . He said " the NAM is a lot of rain before a thump " That's just not true according to this run . Take a look a the graphic I posted above, that's hour 66. My paid maps paint a "wetter solution" but like I said this is all just semantics. I agree with you that whatever falls on Sunday will generally be light and that we won't have a lot of rain to start. I still think we have room here to have an earlier start time to the WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep and honestly at KNYC probably all rain up to 69 hrs, but I can only see soundings to 60 on Plymouth I respectfully disagree Hour 69 I see 30 there , and I see it 0c at 850 . Not that I need to argue the NAM outside 48 hours , I am seeing this run differently than you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Again. It trended to GFS/Euro. Move on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Really no need to over analyze a Nam run that's clearly still out of range, but we still get plenty of snow even on the warmest model. The PV is basically sliding south and shearing out the wave, squeezing the moisture out so we'll be plenty cold with the main stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's probably more helpful to altogether ignore the NAM at this range. Integrating information that is known to be incorrect can further cloud an already difficult situation/prediction. Sometimes more is less. 100 percent agree.. at 00Z we can start really adding it t the equation a little more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Insignificant initial wave is rain, but important 2nd wave is mostly/all snow and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Insignificant initial wave is rain, but important 2nd wave is mostly/all snow and lots of it. Verbatim on the NAM, there is a lot of sleet and ZR to start on the second wave for NYC, and then probably 4-6" of snow as the 850 temps crash down. There is probably 0.5" liquid falling at NYC after the 850 zero line comes through. Less out over Long Island and southern NJ, more northwest. But it's the NAM at its clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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