green tube Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If I had to make a call, it'd be 3-5" for our area.....which is still a VERY solid snowfall. Not the 6-10 forecasted by some or the ridiculous 10-15 or 12-18 that I've seen prematurely thrown out there.....but still a very solid snowfall Sent from my iPhone lee goldberg just said 12"+ very possible over west/cenrtal NJ... all of somerset county. he must of been drinking at jetspense's place tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 just to be clear,i was insinuating this comes back as good as was a day ago(it might) but i don't think it's as gloomy as people are making it out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The .75 isohyet made a 50mile jump north to I195 from 18z run. Agree my man. We are not far from the euro from 12z . And then the GFS had room to come north if the euro is there at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The euro at 12z was .75 in nyc and .90 in Monmouth county. I never like to buy the GFS and NAM until southern branch features Get east of the Rockies. Precip is the hardest equation to solve so I'm not off this train yet. If I hav still have the euro at 1 I'm tossing the neck products . The euro ensembles at 12z were as wet as the OP And inside 72 hours i respect its skill score. Agree fully with this, and im anxiously awaiting the 00zGEFS to compare them to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gotta give me a little more there sir. I was 12. Seriously? lol. You youngsta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's march, we should probably all stop fighting about snow, myself included.. no one in here has the right answer to what's gonna happen... Good luck for those staying up for the euro I've had enough for one day lol night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lee goldberg just said 12"+ very possible over west/cenrtal NJ... all of somerset county. he must of been drinking at jetspense's place tonight Everyones digging into the gentleman jack tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Seriously? lol. You youngsta Yea im 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At this point I'd hinge my hopes that in that 51-57 hour period on the GFS that lead wave overrunning produces some sort of surprise mesoscale band and someone gets pummelled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why, yes. You get a gold star. They do not ALWAYS miss us in March, but they mostly do. I will admit going south is rather unusual for March, but so is this record cold. But John Q Public is going to hear or see ( possibly ) not much snow and 1.) be happy about it and 2.) not care in the least that Richmond or DC got snow. "Better them" John Q will say....but I gotta get some sleep. I hope we get a turnaround, really I do, but hey, it's March. And I'm gonna get grief for posting this stuff which is not model analysis, it's just random thoughts from an old codger. I hope you dont think I was really giving you grief, I was merely discussing what you posted, thats all...you are one of the "newer" posters that definitely deserves respect for your posts here, even if you are a weenie like the rest of us....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yea I totally agree that it could def change... It's just frustrating when u discuss the apparent trend and some people on this board let there IMBY emotions run the analysis.. If these models had trended northward all day we no one would dare say " oh well I think the next runs could really bring this south a tick" lol the trends is the trend... But it's just my opinion and it very well could shift who knows I think we all know that the GFS solution from 0Z is not going to be the final solution to this storm and the end result will be something completely different. We're still 2 days out on this. This is a real late-season nailbiter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I hope you dont think I was really giving you grief, I was merely discussing what you posted, thats all...you are one of the "newer" posters that definitely deserves respect for your posts here, even if you are a weenie like the rest of us....lol I hope you dont think I was really giving you grief, I was merely discussing what you posted, thats all...you are one of the "newer" posters that definitely deserves respect for your posts here, even if you are a weenie like the rest of us....lol No, I did not think you were giving me grief at all. and yes, I am a weenie. I'm considering a book or article on the topic, which is why I hang out here. A book on snow weenies, not the weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The normally dry Ukie now shows about .6 .7 for NYC. More south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Goodness, the 00Z UKMET precip at 72 hours looks exactly like 2/6/10...I mean...EXACTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEM very similar to the 12Z run just a little tick to the south. The GEM crushes the shortwave faster the the US models so it has the evolution of the system south of the US models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agree my man. We are not far from the euro from 12z . And then the GFS had room to come north if the euro is there at 1 Check out the Ukie, looks like .8 but hard to tell form those crappy Plymouth maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At this point I'd hinge my hopes that in that 51-57 hour period on the GFS that lead wave overrunning produces some sort of surprise mesoscale band and someone gets pummelled.... Do you have the soundings ? Curious to see ratios here. Just going off 850s I think this is 12 to 1 , but looking For 700 MB temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Check out the Ukie, looks like .8 but hard to tell form those crappy Plymouth maps. Very kool. Very euro like. .7 into nyc as well. So the euro may hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lee goldberg just said 12"+ very possible over west/cenrtal NJ... all of somerset county. he must of been drinking at jetspense's place tonight Yeah.. you'll never see accuwx change their forecast at night, have to wait till morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The normally dry Ukie now shows about .6 .7 for NYC. More south Looks between .65-.75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0z UKMET form COD, at 60hr and 72hr. 850mb temps are cold At least .70" qpf for NYC. More south. Less north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Very kool. Very euro like. .7 into nyc as well. So the euro may hold serve.Found good Ukies, pretty awesome actually chck these out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A psychological thriller?? Heh. I don't think folks here realize how unique they really are. The vast majority of adults in the area will be ecstatic to hear a snowstorm will, or might, miss us. There's a reason people are moving to the sun belt. Y'all are a fascinating, fun, and smart people, who otherwise are probably perfectly normal but not when it comes to snow:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah.. you'll never see accuwx change their forecast at night, have to wait till morning. I'm not sure that's fair to the public, talking about 12+ when new info is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Found good Ukies, pretty awesome actually chck these out. .70 nyc. .85 Monmouth. Same as 12z euro. Ratios are better than 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has convective feedback, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .70 nyc. .85 Monmouth. Same as 12z euro. Ratios are better than 10 to 1. Ukie looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not sure that's fair to the public, talking about 12+ when new info is on the table. So call the TV station and file a complaint, tell them they got the forecast all wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS has convective feedback, toss it. Said who? We have to understand all the trends. Just because it's not something we like, doesn't means we toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah.. you'll never see accuwx change their forecast at night, have to wait till morning. I've seen Lee Goldberg change his amounts at night many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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