JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 there have been TWO south runs....12z (which wasn't really south) and 18z..... And the 00z gfs/nam And the GGEM for most of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 there have been TWO south runs....12z (which wasn't really south) and 18z..... 12z , 18z, 00z all were more suppressed with each run so that's 3 straight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Claim victory? I have no idea what that means. I'm just sayingthat I have seen March storms fizzle for this area way more often than not. Doesn't mean it can't change, but people should not be surprised or disappointed when this happens. It happens a lot. I work in schools and have seen days canceled in March for storms that were modeled to deliver to the last moment..and failed to. Don't see that as often in Jan or Feb. By saying you arent surprised, you are saying you expected this to trend towards a miss. But if it had trended north (and a rain solution), and not south, youre saying that claim is still valid, because storms miss us in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So everytime the model comes in and it's south, saying the next run will be north is based on climatology.. Gimme a break These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No, I have seen them fail to produce for this area. I really don't care why and neither does the general public..... mmmmk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And the 00z gfs/nam And the GGEM for most of the way nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later 0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. And the northern moisture shield has indeed expanded but that doesn't help when the wave tracks 200 miles south of previous runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If I had to make a call, it'd be 3-5" for our area.....which is still a VERY solid snowfall. Not the 6-10 forecasted by some or the ridiculous 10-15 or 12-18 that I've seen prematurely thrown out there.....but still a very solid snowfall Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z , 18z, 00z all were more suppressed with each run so that's 3 straight runsTo his point if you look at SNJ at 18z AC was .9 at 0z it's 1.2. And brick went from .7 to .9. CNJ stayed between .8 around jackson and .6 into Monmouth county. So that's not a total neg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. Normally I would agree with this, but in this situation with the confluence pressing down like that and the cold dry air coming in on its heels, I cant see a more northern expansion of the precip shield. Let me rephrase that a bit as to avoid confusion. I cannot see a more northward expansion in the size of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later 0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem I respectfully disagree with you. The GGEM has shown a southern solution for days, the GFS has gone south 3 straight runs and the euro shifted south in its 12z guidance...I think we have way more concerns that just the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. This is true and since this is just moving ashore we may be pleasantly surprised tomorrow at just how juiced this system is as it rolls east into a dome of cold air. May not be epic but some widespread accumulating snow is still fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lol. i've not given up. on your lectures, yes. but not the storm. the euro looms. euro was solid at 12z. it will pull its old reputation out its arse to save the day at 1am. Heh. Do your homework Sunday night, sonny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later 0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem The nam is the nam but its usually the more amped one. It also has no idea what the other models are doing lol. The differences in the 00z gfs versus the 18z gfs if it was any bit further north is just a slight shift IMO, not a start of a trend back the other way. A more pressing concern to me is that this is increasingly looking like a frontal boundary event with what will likely be a quite narrow precip shield. That PV means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If you look closely comparing this run with the 18Z run this run has the .25 and .50 isohyet is slight north. Yeah, about 25 miles north with .5 compared to 18z, upper levels looked better than that with confluence more north. I'd bet the ensembles with be north of this op again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And the northern moisture shield has indeed expanded but that doesn't help when the wave tracks 200 miles south of previous runs lol Touche. Upon further review this is more of a glorified fropa. However this is one run of one model. Lets see what support it gets tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NENJBanding Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll be happy with 2-4 inches of snow. It's better than nothing. Zero complaints about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To his point if you look at SNJ at 18z AC was .9 at 0z it's 1.2. And brick went from .7 to .9. CNJ stayed between .8 around jackson and .6 into Monmouth county. So that's not a total neg. For all intents and purposes it stayed the same IMO. Those little couple mile shifts north or south are going to happen. It's the big jumps that I look for to indicate changes in the outcome, and the big net jump today was further south. Even if the 00zgfs came back ever so slightly north, that's hardly enough for me to want to say its beginning a trend back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mr. G saying a solid 6-10". He also said that models have been trending south today and to watch tomorrow becouse it could trend further south and he will have to lower accumulations to 3-6!!!. But also said it could trend north again as the storm is not yet on the California coast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Of course now the GGEM looks better than the GFS LOL...not great for most here but its definitely north of its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll be happy with 2-4 inches of snow. It's better than nothing. Zero complaints about this winter. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Of course now the GGEM looks better than the GFS LOL...not great for most here but its definitely north of its 12Z run. Lol fact of the matter is it still seems to generally agree with the heaviest being south of most of the interests of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Touche. Upon further review this is more of a glorified fropa. However this is one run of one model. Lets see what support it gets tonight. Yea I totally agree that it could def change... It's just frustrating when u discuss the apparent trend and some people on this board let there IMBY emotions run the analysis.. If these models had trended northward all day we no one would dare say " oh well I think the next runs could really bring this south a tick" lol the trends is the trend... But it's just my opinion and it very well could shift who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 To his point if you look at SNJ at 18z AC was .9 at 0z it's 1.2. And brick went from .7 to .9. CNJ stayed between .8 around jackson and .6 into Monmouth county. So that's not a total neg. The .75 isohyet made a 50mile jump north to I195 from 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Normally I would agree with this, but in this situation with the confluence pressing down like that and the cold dry air coming in on its heels, I cant see a more northern expansion of the precip shield. Let me rephrase that a bit as to avoid confusion. I cannot see a more northward expansion in the size of the precip shield. march 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 march 1999 Gotta give me a little more there sir. I was 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For all intents and purposes it stayed the same IMO. Those little couple mile shifts north or south are going to happen. It's the big jumps that I look for to indicate changes in the outcome, and the big net jump today was further south. Even if the 00zgfs came back ever so slightly north, that's hardly enough for me to want to say its beginning a trend back north.The euro at 12z was .75 in nyc and .90 in Monmouth county. I never like to buy the GFS and NAM until southern branch featuresGet east of the Rockies. Precip is the hardest equation to solve so I'm not off this train yet. If I hav still have the euro at 1 I'm tossing the ncep products . The euro ensembles at 12z were as wet as the OP And inside 72 hours i respect its skill score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 By saying you arent surprised, you are saying you expected this to trend towards a miss. But if it had trended north (and a rain solution), and not south, youre saying that claim is still valid, because storms miss us in March. Why, yes. You get a gold star. They do not ALWAYS miss us in March, but they mostly do. I will admit going south is rather unusual for March, but so is this record cold. But John Q Public is going to hear or see ( possibly ) not much snow and 1.) be happy about it and 2.) not care in the least that Richmond or DC got snow. "Better them" John Q will say....but I gotta get some sleep. I hope we get a turnaround, really I do, but hey, it's March. And I'm gonna get grief for posting this stuff which is not model analysis, it's just random thoughts from an old codger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .40 NYC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So anything good coming from GGEM or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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