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March 2-4 Snowstorm Potential Part 2


REDMK6GLI

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Claim victory? I have no idea what that means. I'm just sayingthat I have seen March storms fizzle for this area way more often than not. Doesn't mean it can't change, but people should not be surprised or disappointed when this happens. It happens a lot. I work in schools and have seen days canceled in March for storms that were modeled to deliver to the last moment..and failed to. Don't see that as often in Jan or Feb.

By saying you arent surprised, you are saying you expected this to trend towards a miss. But if it had trended north (and a rain solution), and not south, youre saying that claim is still valid, because storms miss us in March.

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And the 00z gfs/nam

 

And the GGEM for most of the way

nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later

 

0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there

 

ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem

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These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce.

And the northern moisture shield has indeed expanded but that doesn't help when the wave tracks 200 miles south of previous runs lol

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If I had to make a call, it'd be 3-5" for our area.....which is still a VERY solid snowfall. Not the 6-10 forecasted by some or the ridiculous 10-15 or 12-18 that I've seen prematurely thrown out there.....but still a very solid snowfall

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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12z , 18z, 00z all were more suppressed with each run so that's 3 straight runs

To his point if you look at SNJ at 18z AC was .9 at 0z it's 1.2. And brick went from .7 to .9.

CNJ stayed between .8 around jackson and .6 into Monmouth county. So that's not a total neg.

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These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. 

 

Normally I would agree with this, but in this situation with the confluence pressing down like that and the cold dry air coming in on its heels, I cant see a more northern expansion of the precip shield.

 

Let me rephrase that a bit as to avoid confusion. I cannot see a more northward expansion in the size of the precip shield.

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nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later

0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there

ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem

I respectfully disagree with you. The GGEM has shown a southern solution for days, the GFS has gone south 3 straight runs and the euro shifted south in its 12z guidance...I think we have way more concerns that just the GGEM

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These overunning systems tend to expand the moisture on the North side. I dont see why we wont have a good WAA thump for DCA-NYC. They also tend to overproduce. 

 

 

This is true and since this is just moving ashore we may be pleasantly surprised tomorrow at just how juiced this system is as it rolls east into a dome of cold air.  May not be epic but some widespread accumulating snow is still fun.

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nam is the nam...it's just doing what the other models are doing just a run later

 

0z gfs was clearly a step in the right direction,might not be a large step,but it was there

 

ggem is the only concern here and lets be honest,it's the ggem

 

The nam is the nam but its usually the more amped one. It also has no idea what the other models are doing lol.

The differences in the 00z gfs versus the 18z gfs if it was any bit further north is just a slight shift IMO, not a start of a trend back the other way. A more pressing concern to me is that this is increasingly looking like a frontal boundary event with what will likely be a quite narrow precip shield. That PV means business.

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To his point if you look at SNJ at 18z AC was .9 at 0z it's 1.2. And brick went from .7 to .9.

CNJ stayed between .8 around jackson and .6 into Monmouth county. So that's not a total neg.

 

For all intents and purposes it stayed the same IMO. Those little couple mile shifts north or south are going to happen. It's the big jumps that I look for to indicate changes in the outcome, and the big net jump today was further south. Even if the 00zgfs came back ever so slightly north, that's hardly enough for me to want  to say its beginning a trend back north.

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Mr. G saying a solid 6-10".

He also said that models have been trending south today and to watch tomorrow becouse it could trend further south and he will have to lower accumulations to 3-6!!!. But also said it could trend north again as the storm is not yet on the California coast!!

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Touche. Upon further review this is more of a glorified fropa. However this is one run of one model. Lets see what support it gets tonight.

Yea I totally agree that it could def change... It's just frustrating when u discuss the apparent trend and some people on this board let there IMBY emotions run the analysis.. If these models had trended northward all day we no one would dare say " oh well I think the next runs could really bring this south a tick" lol the trends is the trend... But it's just my opinion and it very well could shift who knows

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Normally I would agree with this, but in this situation with the confluence pressing down like that and the cold dry air coming in on its heels, I cant see a more northern expansion of the precip shield.

 

Let me rephrase that a bit as to avoid confusion. I cannot see a more northward expansion in the size of the precip shield.

 

march 1999

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For all intents and purposes it stayed the same IMO. Those little couple mile shifts north or south are going to happen. It's the big jumps that I look for to indicate changes in the outcome, and the big net jump today was further south. Even if the 00zgfs came back ever so slightly north, that's hardly enough for me to want to say its beginning a trend back north.

The euro at 12z was .75 in nyc and .90 in Monmouth county. I never like to buy the GFS and NAM until southern branch features

Get east of the Rockies. Precip is the hardest equation to solve so I'm not off this train yet.

If I hav still have the euro at 1 I'm tossing the ncep products . The euro ensembles at 12z were as wet as the OP

And inside 72 hours i respect its skill score.

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By saying you arent surprised, you are saying you expected this to trend towards a miss. But if it had trended north (and a rain solution), and not south, youre saying that claim is still valid, because storms miss us in March.

Why, yes. You get a gold star. They do not ALWAYS miss us in March, but they mostly do. I will admit going south is rather unusual for March, but so is this record cold. But John Q Public is going to hear or see ( possibly ) not much snow and 1.) be happy about it and 2.) not care in the least that Richmond or DC got snow. "Better them" John Q will say....but I gotta get some sleep. I hope we get a turnaround, really I do, but hey, it's March. And I'm gonna get grief for posting this stuff which is not model analysis, it's just random thoughts from an old codger.

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