JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 H5 looked better on this run. This one isn't over. The southern vort managed to hold together a bit, but it doesn't matter when there is such strong confluence bearing down like that, and everything actually gets pushed ESE. With that confluence IMO even a much stronger vort would still get sheared and pushed ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Again. I have seen this happen many, many times with March events over the decades. I am not surprised at all. You've seen March storms trend south and hit places south of us? A lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You see.. this is why y'all should not hug models 4-5-6-7 days out.I'll hug the Canadian in that timeframe. Best model this season imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It seems strange that a storm coming into SoCal this strong is going to just fizzle out and get bounced off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 H5 looked better on this run. This one isn't over. I agree with you, this will likely nudge North as we get closer. This is about as far South as the PV can push it imo. There is that Northern sw running out ahead of the Southern sw causing problems though. Not sure if we want it to speed up and get out of there or imo we should be rooting for it to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So what is the accumulation breakdown from NYC to central jersey? .6 for us Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like the Goofy is back to the long duration event. Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You've seen March storms trend south and hit places south of us? A lot? You've seen March storms trend south and hit places south of us? A lot? No, I have seen them fail to produce for this area. I really don't care why and neither does the general public..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .6 for us Rossi I will take with 12 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am with stupid ( I mean the euro ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It seems strange that a storm coming into SoCal this strong is going to just fizzle out and get bounced off the southeast coast. With the PV bearing down on the flow like that, there is no room for amplification, and that flow will shear this out in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Again. I have seen this happen many, many times with March events over the decades. I am not surprised at all. yes, i've attended many of your lectures at Princeton and Yale over the years. much of the physics was over my head, but i tired my best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You've seen March storms trend south and hit places south of us? A lot? We should learn from the 2001 debacle and assume this will trend North. The Cras is still way North and leads me to believe that window is still open. We all expected these shifts as the system is now just crashing ashore out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mr. G saying a solid 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You see.. this is why y'all should not hug models 4-5-6-7 days out. Just model noise at this point. Big snows coming. North trend starts with the king euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No, I have seen them fail to produce for this area. I really don't care why and neither does the general public..... But you cant claim victory saying you expected this....when you dont know which way it was going to miss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I agree with you, this will likely nudge North as we get closer. This is about as far South as the PV can push it imo. There is that Northern sw running out ahead of the Southern sw causing problems though. Not sure if we want it to speed up and get out of there or imo we should be rooting for it to slow down. You want it to slow down so it doesn't compress the flow even further. If It slows down then the lead southern s/w has a chance (albeit small in this flow) to amplify the ridging out ahead of it ever so slightly to the point that it would at least not slide ESE off the SC coast. If that northern s/w rides out ahead then the only thing that can happen is the southern s/w continues to dampen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just model noise at this point. Big snows coming. North trend starts with the king euro Well quite honestly.....it's good to have positive vibes..but why would a north trend start? The models are starting to all converge on a solution. I'm sure if it was a snowy one we'd want to lock it in. But because it's not....well I understand all in all...we love snow and can't help wishing for more Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yes, i've attended many of your lectures at Princeton and Yale over the years. much of the physics was over my head, but i tired my best. Which is why I failed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At least GFS is showing some snow. I would gladly take a 3 to 5 inch storm in early March. Not every storm has to be a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lol two runs to go 200 miles south but "no time" for it come back further north even after the gfs just came back further north give me break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just model noise at this point. Big snows coming. North trend starts with the king euro Just model noise at this point. Big snows coming. North trend starts with the king euro I was wondering why my bottle of Gent Jack was beginning to look a little less full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lol two runs to go 200 miles south but "no time" for it come back further north even after the gfs just came back further north give me break Gfs did not come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ppl have been saying " the north trends will start with the next run" and each run has gotten progressively more suppressed and south.. How are you people basing these thoughts? Your inner weenie? EDIT: this post is a joke do not start firing angry comments there have been TWO south runs....12z (which wasn't really south) and 18z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The southern vort managed to hold together a bit, but it doesn't matter when there is such strong confluence bearing down like that, and everything actually gets pushed ESE. With that confluence IMO even a much stronger vort would still get sheared and pushed ESE Timing is just bad here. As long northern vort around the PV outruns the southern vort, will see this southern vort get sheared and pushed ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ppl have been saying " the north trends will start with the next run" and each run has gotten progressively more suppressed and south.. How are you people basing these thoughts? Your inner weenie? EDIT: this post is a joke do not start firing angry comments I base them off of past experiences and climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 But you cant claim victory saying you expected this....when you dont know which way it was going to miss.... Claim victory? I have no idea what that means. I'm just sayingthat I have seen March storms fizzle for this area way more often than not. Doesn't mean it can't change, but people should not be surprised or disappointed when this happens. It happens a lot. I work in schools and have seen days canceled in March for storms that were modeled to deliver to the last moment..and failed to. Don't see that as often in Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I base them off of past experiences and climatology. So everytime the model comes in and it's south, saying the next run will be north is based on climatology.. Gimme a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If you look closely comparing this run with the 18Z run this run has the .25 and .50 isohyet is slight north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Which is why I failed you. lol. i've not given up. on your lectures, yes. but not the storm. the euro looms. euro was solid at 12z. it will pull its old reputation out its arse to save the day at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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