PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That's my point, this is trending slighty worse with each run....by tommorrow, it might really look bad barring a dramatic change of eventsIt's plausible . I will wait to see the whole suite says tonite. . I will try and build a consensus from the whole pacage. Its possible that It breaking down . But not to zero. Gone is is the 12 to 15 the models showed yesterday. Gone right now is the 12 we saw this morning. But that doesn't mean we aren't in line for a warning type event. Build the forecast. Use all the data and see who the outliers are. There's more stuff to come before the euro. don't jump just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Geez... Everyone take a chill pill. I'm the one who thought mixing would be a bigger threat than suppression so if the latter happens take it out on this weenie? Lol Not quite sure when i said it came north meaning the first wave i forget to add was a fail. Anyways waiting till the 0z/6z suite before i jump ship for 8-10" snowfall for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is the PV lobe phase option off the table yet? Sure looks like an option on that NAM run....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's not an NYC snowstorm until there's a few tangles and mangles. You do great work, keep it up. Thanks. I'm with JM still, I cant see this being a complete swing and a miss to our south. What does scare me though in this setup as I said in my run down the other day is that we are going to be working with a decaying/shearing system rather than a developing one. This does present an issue and is possibly why models are shortening the duration and strength/amplification. My expectations were and still are a 6 to 12 inch variety snowfall targeting southern PA/SEPA up to NYC. Im hesitant to lower that based off the 18z gfs and nam at this point in time as my forecast was always based off the assumption of a more sheared out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Initially it looked north but the southern vort got shoved south. I just wasnt explicit in my interpretation wouldnt call it a fail buddy, take it easy. But you know that the possibility exists, so have patience n your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours looks much more realistic, let's see if the GFS, ECMWF and GEM has to say. It has the second low as the main low and NYC colder on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is the PV lobe phase option off the table yet? Sure looks like an option on that NAM run....... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030100&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=063 IMO with that strong confluence there is little room for a phase to occur. It's just too sheared and strung out in order to provide good conditions necessary to phase energy together. Of course this is as modeled on the NAM but I was never gung ho on this phase idea to begin with and still am not. Does not strike me as a situation where something like that could be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours looks much more realistic, let's see if the GFS, ECMWF and GEM has to say. It has the second low as the main low and NYC colder on Sunday. Hour 63 and 66 850s are minus 10 and minus 14. I can't see what's at 700. But to me that's 12 to 1 at min. Can u see what's at 700 Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM at 48 hours looks much more realistic, let's see if the GFS, ECMWF and GEM has to say. It has the second low as the main low and NYC colder on Sunday. I'm pretty sure the NAM's idea of that lead wave being dominant is bogus...that much I do know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 As has typically been the case all season the 4k NAM is painting a much prettier picture. I'm not so sure I don't agree with the notion of decent precip on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks. I'm with JM still, I cant see this being a complete swing and a miss to our south. What does scare me though in this setup as I said in my run down the other day is that we are going to be working with a decaying/shearing system rather than a developing one. This does present an issue and is possibly why models are shortening the duration and strength/amplification. My expectations were and still are a 6 to 12 inch variety snowfall targeting southern PA/SEPA up to NYC. Im hesitant to lower that based off the 18z gfs and nam at this point in time as my forecast was always based off the assumption of a more sheared out system. All about timing. Here's to better trends tonight. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't worry my post also was called fail. Let's see if he's calling pro mets with 6-12" forecasted for NYC a fail. If any pro mets had 6 to 12 forecasted for the area (myself included) have lowered amounts based off the 18z gfs and anything to do with the NAM until this point I'd be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guy seems to have a hard on for some people here. Any who it is the NAM and the GFS/ECMWF should be more accurate to the eventual outcome. No one should be giving up just yet for atleast a warning event for the tri state area Exactly, one tick in the other direction with the corresponding PV confluence could make this jump back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If any pro mets had 6 to 12 forecasted for the area (myself included) have lowered amounts based off the 18z gfs and anything to do with the NAM until this point I'd be shocked. I'm not saying mets have lowered their amounts. But the outcome may be different than what many have forecasted. Now I'm being called a fail for forecasting flurries and cloudy skies, but nobody will be judged that way if they forecast 12+. Thanks for the drink and cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Exactly, one tick in the other direction with the corresponding PV confluence could make this jump back the other way. Really depressing in here that is a fact. The NAM was a mess i just didnt finish off my post on it, i just think its premature to give up yet. There are some interesting tidbits in the NE section that bring up some valid points regarding the strength of the southern vort as it traverses the country as well. 0z should establish the correct trend if all goes to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm guessing the GFS does one of two things, comes about 100 miles north of 18Z or stays almost the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not saying mets have lowered their amounts. But the outcome may be different than what many have forecasted. Now I'm being called a fail for forecasting flurries and cloudy skies, but nobody will be judged that way if they forecast 12+. Thanks for the drink and cheers. Cheers to you too. And I wouldn't take it personally that someone posted something you said and called it a fail. Fact is, this could indeed go either way, especially from NYC northward. A jog either way with the PV is going to have a huge influence on this quite narrow stripe of snow that should overrun the region. The forecast itself is not terribly complex, but its so tricky because of the narrow width of area of snow, and the influence of the PV can push this a hundred plus miles in either direction still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm guessing the GFS does one of two things, comes about 100 miles north of 18Z or stays almost the same.agreed but I think it stays the same, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The gfs is running...... ***Takes drink*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 0z Goofus is slamming hands together, shaking off the cold. In the batters box now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Really depressing in here that is a fact. The NAM was a mess i just didnt finish off my post on it, i just think its premature to give up yet. There are some interesting tidbits in the NE section that bring up some valid points regarding the strength of the southern vort as it traverses the country as well. 0z should establish the correct trend if all goes to plan Split flow patterns out of the southern branch are not the US models strong suit. And for the NAM especially outside 48 hours. I will not be surprised if we are sitting at 1 inch of QPF in Monmouth county and .75 at KNYC in the end. I will not abandon this when the euro ensembles are .75 at KNYC and are .90 in Monmouth county. Meteorology can't come down to model hugging. ( except if you're me and u hug the euro). JK. Look to the best skill score model Inside 72 hours and don't hang on high res models in there mid range. Just my .02 and if it fails oh well Gotta go all in at some point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not saying mets have lowered their amounts. But the outcome may be different than what many have forecasted. Now I'm being called a fail for forecasting flurries and cloudy skies, but nobody will be judged that way if they forecast 12+. Thanks for the drink and cheers. Actually, I have seen that happen with March storms way more often than not over 51 years. Experience matters. History matters. I have seen only a handful of March storms deliver the goods and I am not young and have lived in NYC metro my whole life. I can't say what will happen but a miss or a half-assed outcome would be consistent with history for March storms in the past 25 years. My guess is March is a hard month to predict; there's a reason we old timers used to say that in March anything can happen. Mods feel free to delete. Now everyone chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Flurries from NYC north by 15z Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The vort is holding together so far this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 32 degree line at 18z Sun runs on a line from just north of TTN to just south of NYC with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hr 45 light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 At 45 flurries continue and 32 line has not budged, even moved ever so slightly south. Sunday actually looks cold here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hr 48 540 line south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 48 flurries continue in the area and the 32 line has pushed south of PHl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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