Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Upton sticking with totals. Updated at 6:43pm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php They're probably thinking the 18z GFS is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFStendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. PT_PN_054_0000.gif It's just 1 kid that if he's not the jackpot the storm has to miss the whole thread. I just can't read through the model hugging and hissy fits it's just not meteorology The euro is .75 at KNYC and .90 into Monmouth county the GFS tendency is to be south and east . The euro ensembles show 10 inches in Monmouth and close to 8 in NYC . It's followed by some bitter and potentially record breaking cold air Tues morning great post as always paul and the end of the week storm is still there as well and that "could" be a potentially big slow mover. its way off but we're not done with winter by a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think YanksFan was the engineer driving that train and Allsnow was yelling at him that he was going to fast but seriously doesn't anyone think its kind of suspicious that the GFS shifted 200 miles south in 12 hours and it won't get any accurate sampling till 0Z What do you mean suspicious? Don't models bounce around all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 great post as always paul and the end of the week storm is still there as well and that "could" be a potentially big slow mover. its way off but we're not done with winter by a long shot The ensembles don't like it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What do you mean suspicious? Don't models bounce around all the time? meaning when they make drastic changes in short periods of time and caving to their biases which the GFS is doing today - it is famous for losing storms a few days out and suppressing the southern stream energy too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think YanksFan was the engineer driving that train and Allsnow was yelling at him that he was going to fast but seriously doesn't anyone think its kind of suspicious that the GFS shifted 200 miles south in 12 hours and it won't get any accurate sampling till 0Z Conspiracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 The ensembles don't like it at all. we'll see as we get closer I suppose. la la land still and this year has taught us ANYTHINGA CAN AND WILL HAPPEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I love to see what NCEP thinks about the radical shift with the GFS. After being consistent for three days the GFS has taken a radical shift to the south. I hope tonight's model diagnostic has to say about this, they have an internate knowedge of the equations and data field that might has caused such a shift. BTW 18Z runs are nortorious anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think YanksFan was the engineer driving that train and Allsnow was yelling at him that he was going to fast but seriously doesn't anyone think its kind of suspicious that the GFS shifted 200 miles south in 12 hours and it won't get any accurate sampling till 0Zding ding ding ding ding finally a voice of reason been saying this but was told It was two words "the trend" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFStendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. PT_PN_054_0000.gif It's just 1 kid that if he's not the jackpot the storm has to miss the whole thread. I just can't read through the model hugging and hissy fits it's just not meteorology The euro is .75 at KNYC and .90 into Monmouth county the GFS tendency is to be south and east . The euro ensembles show 10 inches in Monmouth and close to 8 in NYC . It's followed by some bitter and potentially record breaking cold air Tues morning Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFStendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. PT_PN_054_0000.gif It's just 1 kid that if he's not the jackpot the storm has to miss the whole thread. I just can't read through the model hugging and hissy fits it's just not meteorology The euro is .75 at KNYC and .90 into Monmouth county the GFS tendency is to be south and east . The euro ensembles show 10 inches in Monmouth and close to 8 in NYC . It's followed by some bitter and potentially record breaking cold air Tues morning In other words a lot like other storms this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I love to see what NCEP thinks about the radical shift with the GFS. After being consistent for three days the GFS has taken a radical shift to the south. I hope tonight's model diagnostic has to say about this, they have an internate knowedge of the equations and data field that might has caused such a shift. BTW 18Z runs are nortorious anyway. My take away so far today is that the confluence looked a little further south, the southern stream s/w looked weaker and more sheared out and there looked to be less interaction with the northern stream. Whether the models have the right idea with this is not my place to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the GFS holds serve at 0z, then I'll start to really buy into what it's showing at 18z (not a weenie approach either here). It's been consistent from run to run the last few days with some subtle fluctuation of the QPF and axis but this was a really dramatic shift in terms of the setup and players and how everything rolls up into our area. It was Consistent until a 200 mile shift in a matter of 2 runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How about -one- gosh dang real-time observation!!!!! Current 200mb Highway and the WPC track .>>>>> cluster muck<<<<<< hope this clears things up Guest View http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/consensus_zpsfe5dfdea.gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif "There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which can not fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-that principle is contempt prior to investigation." --HERBERT SPENCER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doorman are you some kind of computer whiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doorman are you some kind of computer whiz He is a whiz at making us think weather and less model....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I love Doormans posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 OPC 24hr surface map West Coast View http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_24hrbw.gif 1052mb HP area dropping down into the U.S. and two LP centers we can track for starters...... http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=northwest-vis-1 COLD AIR CAROUSEL http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-wv-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS moved a little south but definitely some members leaning north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS moved a little south but definitely some members leaning north. Looks more than a little to me on the move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS moved a little south but definitely some members leaning north. Yea it looks like they went way South compared to 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Convergence zone really hasn't moved much the last couple of model cycles, it's centered squarely over the Tri-State area. At this point you might want to wait for the Hi-Res models to sort out who gets how much. QPF placement won't be sorted out until almost game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I believe the euro ensembles 72 hours out has a pretty good handle here. Would expect a tick N tonite Apologies for having to ask, but what is meant by "HR 72, HR 120" n the like? Also, what is "QPF" n "GGREM" n the equiv? Or maybe someone would be kind enough to point me to an abbreviation type page? Thx so much in advance, Tim The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yea it looks like they went way South compared to 15z.I still do not see the PV as suppressive enough for a miss, but I guess it's a volatile enough setup. Hard to know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone see the satellite for Cali it looks like a hurricane about to make landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Apologies for having to ask, but what is meant by "HR 72, HR 120" n the like? Also, what is "QPF" n "GGREM" n the equiv? Or maybe someone would be kind enough to point me to an abbreviation type page? Thx so much in advance, Tim The CNJ Plowsman Repost in the banter thread page and I'll explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I still do not see the PV as suppressive enough for a miss, but I guess it's a volatile enough setup. Hard to know what to think. this is FAR from over jm. I think we're still in the prime spot. the PV doesn't look overly suppressive to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it's better than 15z though. the second wave is wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 this is FAR from over jm. I think we're still in the prime spot. the PV doesn't look overly suppressive to be honest Bernie rayno put out a pretty decent video on accuweather, he isn't convinced of the artic boundary setting up as far south as modeled but isn't throwing it out obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 He is a whiz at making us think weather and less model....... Got that right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 OPC 48hr 500mb outlook http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.