weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I agree, if I were betting the heaviest axis of Precip will be from Phil to NYC when its said and done.. I agree, if I were betting the heaviest axis of Precip will be from Phil to NYC when its said and done.. This is what Craig Allen thinks, thoug CBS reported he does not like to give amounts this far out, he said 5-10 though for NYC. Unless...and all this worry about 2/6/10. This is not a 2-3 foot megastorm. We have seen our share of these storms this year. Would love one more, but hey.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guaranteed to happen between now and the 00z suite 1. Weenie suicides 2. Crazy international models will be used to show this is still coming north (cue the Korean) 3. "Initialization errors" will be found in the 18z gfs so we can discount it 4. The once consistent GFS is now erratic, therefore we toss 5. Some sort of epic argument in THIS thread about how even though its further south, the ratios with the colder atmosphere will make up for lack of QPF 6. A drastic slowing of the board right around the time the 00z NAM is due so everyone can pray for the NAMBomb And finally last but not least 7. Our daily sun angle battle You forgot " convective feedback issues" lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The trends at this point purely on what all models show and their usual biases is that this is could go either way, the NavGem gives the most hope but even the normally amped NAM isn't amped, the euro is tricky because it tends to move towards the other guidance slowly, the RGEM may be a glimmer of hope because it does seem fairly far north through 54 hours vs the GGEM, the GFS I have no clue, the 06z run was likely a hiccup but the question now is if the 18z is too i haven't really seen the nam outrageously amped for any storm this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guaranteed to happen between now and the 00z suite 1. Weenie suicides 2. Crazy international models will be used to show this is still coming north (cue the Korean) 3. "Initialization errors" will be found in the 18z gfs so we can discount it 4. The once consistent GFS is now erratic, therefore we toss 5. Some sort of epic argument in THIS thread about how even though its further south, the ratios with the colder atmosphere will make up for lack of QPF 6. A drastic slowing of the board right around the time the 00z NAM is due so everyone can pray for the NAMBomb And finally last but not least 7. Our daily sun angle battle best post so far of this board --- on that note, its friday and its happy hour -- ill leave the bickering about north/south trends to rest of you! play nice all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A few days ago I said the gfs has not been a good model to be trusted this winter and was bombarded by some forum members. I believe they're all hiding now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A few days ago I said the gfs has not been a good model to be trusted this winter and was bombarded by some forum members. I believe they're all hiding now. It hasn't... it has been absolutely awful with several storms. The 2/13 front end snow bomb was depicted as a period of light snow/rain/drizzle right up until the time it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If anything, the traditional NW amped NAM has be weak and SE for most events this winter at this range. Nam GFS EC compromise maybe way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hasn't... it has been absolutely awful with several storms. The 2/13 front end snow bomb was depicted as a period of light snow/rain/drizzle right up until the time it started. Yea I don't anyone who thinks the gfs has been good... It's caved to euro IMO most of the year with the exception of a few northern stream waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hasn't... it has been absolutely awful with several storms. The 2/13 front end snow bomb was depicted as a period of light snow/rain/drizzle right up until the time it started. These southwest flow type events give the nam and GFS fits, that's why I suspected this would end up more south just based on the overall pattern with the PV and the high rapidly punching in from the lakes and Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A few days ago I said the gfs has not been a good model to be trusted this winter and was bombarded by some forum members. I believe they're all hiding now. Please for the love of earthlight take this stuff to the banter thread, the pissing contests are f*cking ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hasn't... it has been absolutely awful with several storms. The 2/13 front end snow bomb was depicted as a period of light snow/rain/drizzle right up until the time it started. yep. And I thought it was scoring a coupe here being so steady for the last few days on this--back to reality I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hasn't... it has been absolutely awful with several storms. The 2/13 front end snow bomb was depicted as a period of light snow/rain/drizzle right up until the time it started. didnt the GFS have under .2 qpf on the 00z 2/3 run? colossal fail at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 didnt the GFS have under .2 qpf on the 00z 2/3 run? colossal fail at 12 hours. For the 2/13 storm it was very bad. It beat the euro during the 2 big january storms. Pretty sure it did well with the 2/3 storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z NavGem is north of the GFS that rare footage ladies and gentlemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What happens with the storm happens, Science & physical reality will win out. But please dont stand there and say 24 hours ago when everything was 10-15 inches & all was right and say you called it then that NY would wind up with as little as 3 inches ! Okie dokie smokie? Tonight it may trend North & you might look even the bigger fool. We win some & lose some in life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z NavGem is north of the GFS that rare footage ladies and gentlemen WAY to early for people to be throwing in the towel here. haven't we learned our lessons yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guaranteed to happen between now and the 00z suite 1. Weenie suicides 2. Crazy international models will be used to show this is still coming north (cue the Korean) 3. "Initialization errors" will be found in the 18z gfs so we can discount it 4. The once consistent GFS is now erratic, therefore we toss 5. Some sort of epic argument in THIS thread about how even though its further south, the ratios with the colder atmosphere will make up for lack of QPF 6. A drastic slowing of the board right around the time the 00z NAM is due so everyone can pray for the NAMBomb And finally last but not least 7. Our daily sun angle battle Well said and funny. This place is schizophrenic sometimes. Waiting for the convective feedback excuse or the old standby of it being an 18Z run, which doesn't have as much input data. As an aside, I'm pretty sure I know more about the actual science of meteorology than 95% of the posters here, but I still know much less than the pros, so I rarely post much in the model threads, as I'd rather not clutter them up - I wish more people would just read more and post less. I come here to read what the pros say and maybe a few non-pros who do the play by play (at least the good ones). My posts usually go in other threads and I tend to stick to things I'm reasonably expert in, like snow growth microphysics, snow accumulation/melting rates as a function of various factors (including sun angle, lol), air velocity profiles/mixing, chaos and uncertainty in predictions and numerical models, etc (not forecasting - more just basic chemical/physical sciences). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nope GFS had about 3 or 4 runs straight of 12+ See that's the whole point. I'm not talking about any one particular model or run. We have mega energy entering the west coast and a tremendous temperate gradient with the PV being unseasonably far south. As the west coast storm ejects several pieces of energy the two will combine to produce nice moderate snows. There will be a jackpot band which I think sets up nearer to Philly and someone there sees the 12" jackpot. If we saw one piece of energy and a full phase ala 2/6/10 we would be talking double digit totals up into the lhv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well said and funny. This place is schizophrenic sometimes. Waiting for the convective feedback excuse or the old standby of it being an 18Z run, which doesn't have as much input data. As an aside, I'm pretty sure I know more about the actual science of meteorology than 95% of the posters here, but I still know much less than the pros, so I rarely post much in the model threads, as I'd rather not clutter them up - I wish more people would just read more and post less. I come here to read what the pros say and maybe a few non-pros who do the play by play (at least the good ones). My posts usually go in other threads and I tend to stick to things I'm reasonably expert in, like snow growth microphysics, snow accumulation/melting rates as a function of various factors (including sun angle, lol), air velocity profiles/mixing, chaos and uncertainty in predictions and numerical models, etc (not forecasting - more just basic chemical/physical sciences). this has got to be one of worst turnarounds in member behavior. I mean mass weenie suicides right now, is the track locked in now? did I miss something? mods are going to have fun cleaning this mess up...again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hi everyone. Try this thread out. Works wonders on keeping things organized. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41911-winter-2013-2014-banter-thread/page-67#entry2839270 If you aren't sure if what you are saying is banter or not, it most likely is. E.g.: This whole post is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 comic relief fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I believe the euro ensembles 72 hours out has a pretty good handle here. Would expect a tick N tonite Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFS tendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html not bad on the sat view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 comic relief fellas I think YanksFan was the engineer driving that train and Allsnow was yelling at him that he was going to fast but seriously doesn't anyone think its kind of suspicious that the GFS shifted 200 miles south in 12 hours and it won't get any accurate sampling till 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think YanksFan was the engineer driving that train and Allsnow was yelling at him that he was going to fast the guy scratching his head must be yanks then, the " what the **** did I do head scratch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM leading the way GGEM with the coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If the GFS holds serve at 0z, then I'll start to really buy into what it's showing at 18z (not a weenie approach either here). It's been consistent from run to run the last few days with some subtle fluctuation of the QPF and axis but this was a really dramatic shift in terms of the setup and players and how everything rolls up into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Upton sticking with totals. Updated at 6:43pm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFS tendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. PT_PN_054_0000.gif G.gif Yeah, the euro ensembles are a good early guess until we get to 0z and 12z tomorrow. This looks like the GFStendency to suppress the southern stream too much. The 18z RGEM looks more like the other guidance with a less suppressed look. PT_PN_054_0000.gif It's just 1 kid that if he's not the jackpot the storm has to miss the whole thread. I just can't read through the model hugging and hissy fits it's just not meteorology The euro is .75 at KNYC and .90 into Monmouth county the GFS tendency is to be south and east . The euro ensembles show 10 inches in Monmouth and close to 8 in NYC . It's followed by some bitter and potentially record breaking cold air Tues morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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