REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam is by far the warmest model so far and its out of its "reasonable" range so its not even viable in my opinion to take it seriously just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam is by far the warmest model so far and its out of its "reasonable" range so its not even viable in my opinion to take it seriously just yet It may be the warmest in the mid range, but once the actual low comes through its colder and more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM's not really meant to be used until inside of 48 hrs folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 It may be the warmest in the mid range, but once the actual low comes through its colder and more suppressed. Just voicing an opinion my friend. But yes after the first low it looks to come more inline with the GFS/EURO blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam is by far the warmest model so far and its out of its "reasonable" range so its not even viable in my opinion to take it seriously just yet There's a first wave that comes through, which is strong enough to depress the thermal gradient south and force the second wave south. It seems to be on its own with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM has a shortwave in SE Canada that may end up phasing in once the cold front comes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There's a first wave that comes through, which is strong enough to depress the thermal gradient south and force the second wave south. It seems to be on its own with this solution. GGEM does this as well FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PV really farther north on nam, this looks to be trending north slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM does this as well FWIW I'll trust the gfs and Euro over the crazy Nam and erratic GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Amazing how far apart the NAM and GGEM are compared to the GFS/EURO 1.5 - 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GGEM is about 200 miles south of all other guidance, until it plays catchup with the euro and gfs or other evidence shifts in favor of the GGEM it shouldn't even be considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM might end up being a big hit from Philly to NYC eventually. It just has the intial cold front farther N because the PV takes longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 As far as any QPF increase goes with the interaction of the disturbance over the GL, i can see us bumping up to maybe 1.5"+ in the best forcing/ lift. Highly unlikely we'll be able to get much more than 1.75" without some sort of true degree of phasing in my opinion. Im not too concerned of mixing even on LI save for maybe the briefest period of sleet in the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where it may be useful the NAM has trended better and further North. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 48 hours before the Feb 4th event, the entire tri-state area was expected to be cold enough on multiple models (the Euro especially if I remember right) for mostly snow. Then there was a last minute north lurch and mixing made it all the way through CT. 07-08 had multiple such outcomes as well, where the storm verified 100 miles north of where models had them at this range. I think the Feb 4th outcome is quite possible in this case, hopefully I'm wrong. Like I said days ago, warm advection driven storms never sit well with me for coastal/city areas. I think we need more to go right for major snow for us than people think, and a lobe or two of the PV being off by a little right now can make this end up with a lot more mixing. Just about all our storms are WAA driven, at least when we are on the right quadrant of the storm. Even when we get into the CCB, the resultant precipitation is still owing to the fact that there is continued warm, moist inflow on the other side of the storm. At this point, I am not concerned about mixing being a major factor, this setup is completely different than the Feb 5th storm... that was a front end thump, this is more of an elongated disturbance with mainly overrunning precipitation. If I were to be worried about anything (and I'm really not for the NYC area, at this point) it would be that the mid level thermal gradient sets up to our north. That 850 gradient typically aligns with the best frontogenic forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most likely a fluke run, it handled the PV in SE Canada way different than any other model or its previous runs, onto the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where it may be useful the NAM has trended better and further North. Next. And much warmer. Still, nam at 60+ hrs so we have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 so what were the accumulations from Philly on nOrth on 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just about all our storms are WAA driven, at least when we are on the right quadrant of the storm. Even when we get into the CCB, the resultant precipitation is still owing to the fact that there is continued warm, moist inflow on the other side of the storm. At this point, I am not concerned about mixing being a major factor, this setup is completely different than the Feb 5th storm... that was a front end thump, this is more of an elongated disturbance with mainly overrunning precipitation. If I were to be worried about anything (and I'm really not for the NYC area, at this point) it would be that the mid level thermal gradient sets up to our north. That 850 gradient typically aligns with the best frontogenic forcing. True, it's a different setup than Feb 4th, but I just remember how much colder models were for it at this range vs. what happened. I think this can definitely be a nice event for everyone but things can go wrong too. Hopefully today and tomorrow give us answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 And much warmer. Still, nam at 60+ hrs so we have time. FWIW the normally useless CRAS is also VERY warm and handles the PV much like the NAM. Something to pay attention to guys....the hi res models picking up on this but we need to get in their better range tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't think I've ever looked thermal profiles in the NAM past 36. Euro and GFS for that with NAM track as a supplement past that to be taken lightly. And much warmer. Still, nam at 60+ hrs so we have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is slowly finding its way towards the rest of the guidance.. just taking its sweet time getting there.. I expect it to come more in-line by 00z tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 so what were the accumulations from Philly on nOrth on 12z NAM? NAM looks much warmer than 6z but has been flopping around all over the place so I wouldn't get too concerned. EVen the second part verbatim would be a lot of sleet or ice and then some snow at the end for the city/coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm sorry you lost me at CRAS, it's like comparing dog crap to a litter box, both stink in different ways when using Nam and CRAS to support an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most likely a fluke run, it handled the PV in SE Canada way different than any other model or its previous runs, onto the GFS The NAM is known for making huge run to run corrections even inside of 48 hours. It's useless with this storm before the 00z runs tonight at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is slowly finding its way towards the rest of the guidance.. just taking its sweet time getting there.. I expect it to come more in-line by 00z tonight.. Slowly? It jut took a massive jump North after being one of the farthest South models. Thats was a quick flop, but hopefully just a blip. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm sorry you lost me at CRAS, it's like comparing dog crap to a litter box, both stink in different ways when using Nam and CRAS to support an argument. +1 I was just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW the normally useless CRAS is also VERY warm and handles the PV much like the NAM. Something to pay attention to guys....the hi res models picking up on this but we need to get in their better range tomorrow: The CRAS is worthless, I'd throw it right in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW the normally useless CRAS is also VERY warm and handles the PV much like the NAM. Something to pay attention to guys....the hi res models picking up on this but we need to get in their better range tomorrow: You can pretty much guarantee that any model that follows the CRAS is going to end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No joke, I would rather use the 384hr GFS over the 72hr CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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