jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I couldn't care less about the latest Nam; it's far too unreliable at this range. The 15z SREF being so north, along with the spread north and west is interesting to me however. In the past there was good agreement with the SREF and GFS this season, even at this range--not this time. I'm thinking we may see a compromise here. I like a blend of the 15z SREF with the 18Z GFS at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seriously though I would of been SHOCKED if Models Especially GFS held tight with Same exact tract for 5 days straight so not shocked there is a bit of waffling going on. The Metro Area is now on the Fence can go either way the next 24 hours a bump North from Here we are golden another bump South will be where half the state is seeing snow and the other half is hoping and praying the front nudges North yelling and cursing at radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now you see how bad the 12z GFS was, it didn't matter how much QPF it showed, it was the trend that mattered Exactly, and to be perfectly honest, wouldn't surprise me if we saw nothing. The trend may not be over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What is even more cringe worthy, we have to wait 3 hours for the 0z suite. Thats the worst when Models trend wrong way it can excruciating waiting for the next run to hopefully "correct" things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, and to be perfectly honest, wouldn't surprise me if we saw nothing. The trend may not be over yet. The pattern won't really allow a more south shift than the GFS currently shows, if it tries to go anymore south it basically ends up as a sheared out mess and not even DCA or PHL will see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, and to be perfectly honest, wouldn't surprise me if we saw nothing. The trend may not be over yet. If that happened would be a slap in the face especially when this time yesterday most of the Metro was looking at 12+.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 live by the models, die by the models. It is way too premature to be making any sort of calls right now. A significant snowstorm is still on the table for everyone. A whiff is also on the table. Our pacific storm hasn't even made landfall yet and the strength of the PV keeps fluctuating from run to run. irrationality has no place in a scientific based discussion forum, ya'll should be ashamed of yourselves for some of the posts you're writing. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The pattern won't really allow a more south shift than the GFS currently shows, if it tries to go anymore south it basically ends up as a sheared out mess and not even DCA or PHL will see anything That's where I see this going. Jackpotting areas in the TN/OH valley's and significantly less east of Apps. If you look closely at the Euro ensembles you'll notice that while all this is shifting south, it's not really increasing QPF for the DC area. It's back to looking like a sheared out mess. We sill have one more full day of runs to sort it out, just hate the way it looks since the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So one run of the gfs 18z especially looks shtty and it's off the cliff for everyone Some of you guys are funny ill take my NYC/li 8" and Philly jackpot to the bank Is this the 12" plus of yesterday's models? Never was This has been and will be a moderate low end warning event bank on it I disagree. This easily was and still could be a 12"+ storm for somebody. Plenty of models showed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm sorry but people can be morons. They don't care to understand the process that will lead to this event and just live and die by every model run, it's pathetic. And I didn't know so many people here could see the future as if this event already happened. Yup. What these people are doing isn't skilled forecasting at all, it's just model-hugging. Really pathetic. I think we've seen an overcorrection and the 0z suite will start to shift north again. We've seen this happen numerous times with storms and it wouldn't at all surprise me if it happened again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So one run of the gfs 18z especially looks shtty and it's off the cliff for everyone Some of you guys are funny ill take my NYC/li 8" and Philly jackpot to the bank Is this the 12" plus of yesterday's models? Never was This has been and will be a moderate low end warning event bank on it Nope GFS had about 3 or 4 runs straight of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh god not another one of those painful storms.. 2010 once again Oh god not another one of those painful storms.. 2010 once again No, they aren't looking at over 2 feet; we've had plenty of 8-12 events this year. Won't miss it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh god not another one of those painful storms.. 2010 once again Oh god not another one of those painful storms.. 2010 once again No, they aren't looking at over 2 feet; we've had plenty of 8-12 events this year. Won't miss it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, and to be perfectly honest, wouldn't surprise me if we saw nothing. The trend may not be over yet. you should probably take a break from the board till next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guaranteed to happen between now and the 00z suite 1. Weenie suicides 2. Crazy international models will be used to show this is still coming north (cue the Korean) 3. "Initialization errors" will be found in the 18z gfs so we can discount it 4. The once consistent GFS is now erratic, therefore we toss 5. Some sort of epic argument in THIS thread about how even though its further south, the ratios with the colder atmosphere will make up for lack of QPF 6. A drastic slowing of the board right around the time the 00z NAM is due so everyone can pray for the NAMBomb And finally last but not least 7. Our daily sun angle battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's where I see this going. Jackpotting areas in the TN/OH valley's and significantly less east of Apps. If you look closely at the Euro ensembles you'll notice that while all this is shifting south, it's not really increasing QPF for the DC area. It's back to looking like a sheared out mess. We sill have one more full day of runs to sort it out, just hate the way it looks since the 12z runs. The last several years these sort of storms have tended to end up way more sheared and in some cases little if anything from what they appeared like beyond day 4, there was a similar storm back in the 12-13 winter that looked this good til maybe day 5 and all the models then lost it...it seems the tendency the last 5-10 years is the pattern favors very amped systems or nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, and to be perfectly honest, wouldn't surprise me if we saw nothing. The trend may not be over yet. Yea, don't think we are. Cut-offs can be amazing when laid out on a map in front of you. 12" somewhere, and 20 miles north nothing. That's insane. No one can be mad because the northern nj / nyc happens to be the unlucky winners this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup. What these people are doing isn't skilled forecasting at all, it's just model-hugging. Really pathetic. I think we've seen an overcorrection and the 0z suite will start to shift north again. We've seen this happen numerous times with storms and it wouldn't at all surprise me if it happened again. I agree, if I were betting the heaviest axis of Precip will be from Phil to NYC when its said and done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you should probably take a break from the board till next winter. [/quote Yes he sounds like he is having a nervous breakdown go get a drink and relax. It's only snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DC doesn't actually do that well compared to the euro. Much of what falls is rain (according to the MA forum anyway) Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models will converge tonight and tomorrow once the energy comes ashore over Southern California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 live by the models, die by the models. It is way too premature to be making any sort of calls right now. A significant snowstorm is still on the table for everyone. A whiff is also on the table. Our pacific storm hasn't even made landfall yet and the strength of the PV keeps fluctuating from run to run. irrationality has no place in a scientific based discussion forum, ya'll should be ashamed of yourselves for some of the posts you're writing.Yup happens time after time and people never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup. What these people are doing isn't skilled forecasting at all, it's just model-hugging. Really pathetic. I think we've seen an overcorrection and the 0z suite will start to shift north again. We've seen this happen numerous times with storms and it wouldn't at all surprise me if it happened again. Dead on. This place has been unreadable. Chill out, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The pattern won't really allow a more south shift than the GFS currently shows, if it tries to go anymore south it basically ends up as a sheared out mess and not even DCA or PHL will see anything The highest skill score model the euro ensembles inside 72 are still there. 75 in NYC and .9 into Monmouth county I will focus on the euro and assume the GFS which is the southern most solution is wrong and will b back by 12z tomorrow if the 0z Euro holds Serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wishcast much? Nope I think Central NJ will be jackpot North Jersey will do OK.. South Jersey will have mixing issues. I am expecting this to bump back north by tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Guaranteed to happen between now and the 00z suite 1. Weenie suicides 2. Crazy international models will be used to show this is still coming north (cue the Korean) 3. "Initialization errors" will be found in the 18z gfs so we can discount it 4. The once consistent GFS is now erratic, therefore we toss 5. Some sort of epic argument in THIS thread about how even though its further south, the ratios with the colder atmosphere will make up for lack of QPF 6. A drastic slowing of the board right around the time the 00z NAM is due so everyone can pray for the NAMBomb And finally last but not least 7. Our daily sun angle battle Hahahaha! Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wishcast much? troll alert. why would anyone expect the axis of heaviest snow to impact an area that's had 5 feet of snow already this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wishcast much? I'd keep my expectations pretty low if i were you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The trends at this point purely on what all models show and their usual biases is that this is could go either way, the NavGem gives the most hope but even the normally amped NAM isn't amped, the euro is tricky because it tends to move towards the other guidance slowly, the RGEM may be a glimmer of hope because it does seem fairly far north through 54 hours vs the GGEM, the GFS I have no clue, the 06z run was likely a hiccup but the question now is if the 18z is too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models will converge tonight and tomorrow once the energy comes ashore over Southern California. I believe the euro ensembles 72 hours out has a pretty good handle here. Would expect a tick N tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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