IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you count all the panels which show QPF over the region it's about 30 hours. 0.25"-0.50" over 30 hours is an average of about 0.0125 per hour. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So yesterday this was looking like a 12-16 storm now today it is getting worse as the day progresses. went from 6-12 to 2-4 since this morning.. by tomorrow it will be a period of light snow at this rate... These Models are enough to drive you to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 a) This isn't a done deal at all but can't deny the southward tug on the models This is why we never ever lock 6-10 or 10-16 or whatever 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 a) This isn't a done deal at all but can't deny the southward tug on the models This is why we never ever lock 6-10 or 10-16 or whatever 3 days out Good lesson indeed. Any bets on when the NAM caves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The vort shears out, whereas yesterday the GFS showed some phasing Still over the pacific ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This isn't weenie suicide this way. Ive always called this a southern special from the start. Just may adjust my 2-4" to T-2" in and around the city/Northern NJ. This is going to be a radar disaster up this way, but its all part of the interesting study of meteorology and tracking these suckers. Enjoy down there towards DC however. : This is what drives me crazy-how can people cancel a storm based on one run, with such a volatile pattern when two runs ago, the same model had the mix line just about to NYC for most of the storm and the heaviest snow along I-84? Seriously, add some analysis beyond "I saw this first", and "congrats, city XYZ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you count all the panels which show QPF over the region it's about 30 hours. 0.25"-0.50" over 30 hours is an average of about 0.0125 per hour. Yikes. and the Nam now has 1.5 QPF for the area. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The wishcasters jinxed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don, How does breakdown say from c. Nj on south to Trenton, Philly and DC? Thanks. CNJ Euro .8 NAM .95 frozen GFS .6 you`re still good Rossi . I wouldn`t want to be N of 80 for this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It happens, many times it happens the other way, and we reap the goods....congrats to our weenie friends down south. That's if the gfs is correct. No need to panic just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good lesson indeed. Any bets on when the NAM caves? Who know "b )" was a wink? NAM may not cave, again... this isn't set in stone at all. Last few storms haven't trended our way... it's kind of like the 2011 hex that began that year in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the south trend is done. I think, in general, we tick north from here, but not enough to appreciably help areas north of extreme southern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 live by the models, die by the models. It is way too premature to be making any sort of calls right now. A significant snowstorm is still on the table for everyone. A whiff is also on the table. Our pacific storm hasn't even made landfall yet and the strength of the PV keeps fluctuating from run to run. irrationality has no place in a scientific based discussion forum, ya'll should be ashamed of yourselves for some of the posts you're writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh god not another one of those painful storms.. 2010 once again The models today trended based on a lobe of the PV that strengthened today. That lobe could weaken tonight on the 0z or trend away somewhat from the storm and the precip will come right back north. I'll gladly eat crow if suppression ends up happening but I still think it's pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So NAM crushes NYC with a foot of snow, while GFS gives NYC almost nothing. Gotta love the American models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is what drives me crazy-how can people cancel a storm based on one run, with such a volatile pattern when two runs ago, the same model had the mix line just about to NYC for most of the storm and the heaviest snow along I-84? Seriously, add some analysis beyond "I saw this first", and "congrats, city XYZ". The latest data is certainly not encouraging at all to say the least. But it's far from over yet and there is still plenty of time (for good or bad that is). And just like we shouldn't pride ourselves in locking in a foot because of a few runs, we should also not jump off a cliff because things went the other way a few runs. My fear is that NOW the NAM may be too amped and it may eventually cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DC doesn't actually do that well compared to the euro. Much of what falls is rain (according to the MA forum anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the south trend is done. I think, in general, we tick north from here, but not enough to appreciably help areas north of extreme southern new england. As long as it gets Heavier Precip to at least North Jersey its fine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is what drives me crazy-how can people cancel a storm based on one run, with such a volatile pattern when two runs ago, the same model had the mix line just about to NYC for most of the storm and the heaviest snow along I-84? Seriously, add some analysis beyond "I saw this first", and "congrats, city XYZ". It's a "What have you done for me lately" forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models today trended based on a lobe of the PV that strengthened today. That lobe could weaken tonight on the 0z or trend away somewhat from the storm and the precip will come right back north. I'll gladly eat crow if suppression ends up happening but I still think it's pretty unlikely. The Euro is still .8 for a lot of people with great 850`s and pp are playing taps . I will never understand this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now you see how bad the 12z GFS was, it didn't matter how much QPF it showed, it was the trend that mattered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CNJ Euro .8 NAM .95 frozen GFS .6 you`re still good Rossi . I wouldn`t want to be N of 80 for this one . Pauly, I expect it will come back north at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This isn't weenie suicide this way. Ive always called this a southern special from the start. Just may adjust my 2-4" to T-2" in and around the city/Northern NJ. This is going to be a radar disaster up this way, but its all part of the interesting study of meteorology and tracking these suckers. Enjoy down there towards DC however. : it's humbling being in the presence of a genius of your caliber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What is even more cringe worthy, we have to wait 3 hours for the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now you see how bad the 12z GFS was, it didn't matter how much QPF it showed, it was the trend that mattered I think we all feared that but didnt want to see the writing on the wall, so we go away & breathe and hope there is a 75-100 mile shift north tonight or at the very least 25-50 miles tonight and nother in the am- its still not too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So one run of the gfs 18z especially looks shtty and it's off the cliff for everyone Some of you guys are funny ill take my NYC/li 8" and Philly jackpot to the bank Is this the 12" plus of yesterday's models? Never was This has been and will be a moderate low end warning event bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What is even more cringe worthy, we have to wait 3 hours for the 0z suite. On the bright side the board is moving lightning fast again. It was slowed to a crawl earlier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS has trended almost 200 miles south with heaviest snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pauly, I expect it will come back north at 00z. Rossi , The GFS is furthest South , hmmmm where have I seen that before 3 days out .( maybe this time it`s right ) The Euro did tick down , but its OP and ENS are still 8 @ KNYC and 10 inches of snow for us . If you lose the Euro tonite, then worry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's humbling being in the presence of a genius of your caliber. I'm sorry but people can be morons. They don't care to understand the process that will lead to this event and just live and die by every model run, it's pathetic. And I didn't know so many people here could see the future as if this event already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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