monmouthcounty11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Mt. Holly's first map thru 7 PM Monday, which will of course change many times, but here is the early thinking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anyone saying any amounts were a lock yesterday or last night is just clueless. Today even I wouldn't say anything is a lock. Liking the NAVGEM move given its highly suppressive bias my friend. Dont think this gets squashed to the south. Using 2/2010 the PV wasnt nearly as far south, just my train of thought here who knows i maybe wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ahh so the storm comes in on tuesday, great. You mean 2 1/2.days You said yesterday pp were saying a lock. Yest was Thrs Fri sat sun mon. That's the 4 days. Now ur 3 days. Still not a lock. But in Staten Island. I think ur good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They were just being appropriately specific. 8" is warning criteria for 24 hours. good point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ahh so the storm comes in on tuesday, great. You mean 2 1/2.days He said yesterday which was thursday. Thursday-monday=4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 He said yesterday which was thursday. Thursday-monday=4 dayshe stated his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Liking the NAVGEM move given its highly suppressive bias my friend. Dont think this gets squashed to the south. Using 2/2010 the PV wasnt nearly as far south, just my train of thought here who knows i maybe wrong... I still think the least likely outcome is too far south for significant impacts. Mixing though is becoming less likely. I really liked the shift south at 12z, but the PV orientation will dictate what impacts happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really like Philly jackpot again. My early call is 8" again for NYC/li not super fluff but not cement like we have had. It's time once again for some people to step back and not take any particular model as the final solution untill we are within hi res range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Through hour 63 the 18z NAM is 0.25"+ from TTN to Boston. Less north and south. More west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM looks further south to me through 60h but there is a ton of moisture that is about to make to move into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really like Philly jackpot again. My early call is 8" again for NYC/li not super fluff but not cement like we have had. It's time once again for some people to step back and not take any particular model as the final solution untill we are within hi res range not sure how you can say anyone jackpots when the system is not even on land yet, once on land and better sampled then you can call jackpot until then this thing can and will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM looks further south to me through 60h but there is a ton of moisture that is about to make to move into the area. Maybe the NAM is going to give us one of those fantasy qpf snow bombs. We could use a pick me up right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hours 66 and 72 look very very good on the Sim Radar, this will probably show a good deal of QPF, but there is a much sharper cutoff North and is overall south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not all of this falls as snow, especially for southeast areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM looks a lot snowier for most due to the second wave being colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM pretty close to 12z.. warm until 9z Monday however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I will cry if I see this again, heartbreaking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Another tick south by HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not sure how you can say anyone jackpots when the system is not even on land yet, once on land and better sampled then you can call jackpot until then this thing can and will changeTwo words. The trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hpc probabilities don't match their qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you look at the HPC and the Euro ensemble mean on WxBell the maps are almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not all of this falls as snow, especially for southeast areas. That qpf map resembles the map from the GFS at 6z. That's encouraging news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When does the gfs roll again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hpc probabilities don't match their qpf I was just about to say that... they have 10% chance of 8+ all the way past the I-84 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When does the gfs roll again All Models Times are pinned as the VERY 1st post on the main page. AM/PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When does the gfs roll again Franklin, if you'd genuinely like to learn about meteorology, this is the place... But these questions which take two seconds to google need to be tamed a bit. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=when+does+the+gfs+run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Upton is clearly aware of the south trend : 6-10 for local area. Higher number south lower number North & placement of baroclinic zone obviously determines final accumilations. In short, we have taken a big hit today. there is a chance we move back up...lets excercise patience with a smile. this is weather after all & these r models that finds trends and lose them. By tonight storm will be fully onland and whether you believe in importance of sampling of a hawaii origin storm or not there is no question that more data equals higher accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, NAM is a nice 8-12" hit....all from 2nd system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Upton is clearly aware of the south trend : 6-10 for local area. Higher number south lower number North & placement of baroclinic zone obviously determines final accumilations. In short, we have taken a big hit today. there is a chance we move back up...lets excercise patience with a smile. this is weather after all & these r models that finds trends and lose them. By tonight storm will be fully onland and whether you believe in importance of sampling of a hawaii origin storm or not there is no question that more data equals higher accuracy. We haven't taken a hit at all around NYC. If anything I'd say we're better off since mixing appears a lot less likely than it did before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Would you pay attention! This what makes the NYC forum look disgraceful, READ all the info is posted in the first THREAD! Jesus Christ not hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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