+SNfreak21 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 South in what context? South of the OP, GFS, CMC? CLARIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles are south. Nails the mid-atlantic. They aren't terrible unless you're in New England. it seems the ens have been in lock step with the op a lot recently. ...so they seemingly shift in unison. also, pretty much no place.... philly,,,, and south get any more snow than NNJ on the accu pro snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So just curious is this now considered a south trend being it's on more then one model??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 South in what context? South of the OP, GFS, CMC? CLARIFY It looks like op. .75 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It looks like op. .75 for NYC Is the precip higher in central nj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 South in what context? South of the OP, GFS, CMC? CLARIFY South of it's previous run with the highest QPF concentration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Is the precip higher in central nj? Yes. .8-.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 South of it's previous run with the highest QPF concentration. Yes but the ensembles are usually compared to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes but the ensembles are usually compared to the operational No like really far south, if you look at the mean the highest QPF totals are over VA and points due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What does it look like in northeast NJ for total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes but the ensembles are usually compared to the operational They are the same. Drier for sne and Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What does it look like in northeast NJ for total qpf? .65-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks Allsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Everyone was saying 1 foot plus was a lock yesterday. What happened? Totals are getting cut in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Everyone was saying 1 foot plus was a lock yesterday. What happened? Totals are getting cut in half?Called model fluctuation. The NAVGEM came north which to me is a pretty important milestone being one of the most suppressive models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Called model fluctuation. The NAVGEM came north which to me is a pretty important milestone being one of the most suppressive models Also the SREFS are north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, thats a pretty big north move on the NAVGEM...looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Everyone was saying 1 foot plus was a lock yesterday. What happened? Totals are getting cut in half? Nothing is ever a lock 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREFs surface remains warm even on Monday but spread is to the south. Thinking it will continue to cool in line with other guidance in coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hmm, that is a little concerning. You can always tell when he is in full weenie mode, with the hand movements that are crisp and the tonal inflection, lol. You know.... Obviously, the door is still open of course..... lol ya he was in full weenie mode for the pre-valentines day storm.. that was fun! He had so much energy he tired me out.. We will see hopefully the 18z trends back north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Winter Storm Watch issued for my friends in southwest PA, Pittsburgh, Pa. Be patient these watches will be expanding eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are now almost within 48 to 60 hours of start time. I think I have heard from some red taggers that within that timeframe the GFS is most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Real quick breakdown on the 12z JMA FWIW LHV 0.5-0.80" north to south. North of I-80 0.75-1.00" north to south 1.00"+ from I-80 south to TTN, including NYC and LI 1.25"+ on a stripe from TTN to just south of Philly extending eastward to the central NJ coast. 1.00"+ for the rest of NJ south of that stripe. 0.75"+ for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Everyone was saying 1 foot plus was a lock yesterday. What happened? Totals are getting cut in half? Anyone saying any amounts were a lock yesterday or last night is just clueless. Today even I wouldn't say anything is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nothing is ever a lock 4 days out.ahh so the storm comes in on tuesday, great. You mean 2 1/2.days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Winter Storm Watch issued for my friends in southwest PA, Pittsburgh, Pa. woo hoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Real quick breakdown on the 12z JMA FWIW LHV 0.5-0.80" north to south. North of I-80 0.75-1.00" north to south 1.00"+ from I-80 south to TTN, including NYC and LI 1.25"+ on a stripe from TTN to just south of Philly extending eastward to the central NJ coast. 1.00"+ for the rest of NJ south of that stripe. 0.75"+ for DCA. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are now almost within 48 to 60 hours of start time. I think I have heard from some red taggers that within that timeframe the GFS is most accurate. Rossi you're in a good spot. GFS .75. Euro ensembles .9 Prob looking at 12 to 1. Ur good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where does it say that? As of 2pm this is what I see. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FAVOR LESS PHASING...BUT ARE UNCLEAR ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. TAKING THESE TRENDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO OUR SE INSTEAD OF ONE COHERENT STRONGER STORM. THE FIRST LOW SHOULD TRACK NEAR THE BENCH MARK MONDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCH MARK LATE MONDAY...WITH A THIRD LOW TRACKING EVEN FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT...NOW EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM NW TO SE FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE SOLUTION IS NOW FAVORING MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS...VICE ONE MAIN LOW...SHOULD NOT DRAW AS MOISTURE AS A WHOLE INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. ONE THING THE FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK FOR THE LOWS DOES THOUGH...COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE N...IS THAT ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH...SO THE AREA SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS...BUT FOR NOW WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A FLUFFY SNOW THAN A WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SO THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE N COULD VERY WELL OFFSET THE LOWER QPF. AS A RESULT...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO DEPART FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE TREND CONTINUES TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE S SOLUTION...THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL - THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY THAT WOULD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS THAT A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS TO THE N THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...REDUCING AMOUNTS THERE. THIS ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SOLUTION STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY They issue other forecasts than their AFD.. I said I agree with their AFD, their detailed forecast calls for Heavy snow accumulations.. You usually don't see the word "heavy" its usually light or moderate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not bad! For you, 0.50"+ for all of CT/RI and far southern MA. Boston area and the rest of NNE is 0.25"+. CT Panhandle is actually closer to 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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