Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I do like Uptons discussion just saying their point and click forecast and HWO earlier is bad karma indicating 8"+ usually they start low and go higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What is uncle Paul thinking?Which areaDifferent uncle Paul. Dam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Haven't talked to him today.. He doesn't seem too excited since he hasn't emailed me or anything.. Hmm, that is a little concerning. You can always tell when he is in full weenie mode, with the hand movements that are crisp and the tonal inflection, lol. You know.... Obviously, the door is still open of course..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Has Mt Holly issued warning or a AFD? Can someone please post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Has Mt Holly issued warning or a AFD? Can someone please post? HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 430 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 NJZ001-007>010-012-013-PAZ060>062-103-105-010930- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- 430 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCES REMAIN FOR A PROTRACTED AND IMPACTING WINTER WEATHER EVENT CENTERED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DAY. THIS EVENT IS TRENDING SNOWIER AND WOULD AFFECT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Which area Different uncle Paul. Dam Yes, the "local" uncle Paul in SWCT.....of course your thoughts are always valued and appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, JMA at 72 hours looks MECS-esque....Cold has come through and the shortwabe looks really robust, 96 hours isn't out yet for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is an AMAZING look, too bad its the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is an AMAZING look, too bad its the JMA amazing.gif If you compare it to yesterdays run at 96 hours it's significantly further south today at hour 72. This is what happens if the southern stream is stronger and more consolidated. It reminds me of the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, the "local" uncle Paul in SWCT.....of course your thoughts are always valued and appreciated. Ah. Thank you. I Don't think the models are settled on the exact pulse or retrogragression of the PV . 50 miles in numerical modeling 3 days out is still inside the cone. So I'm not excited to b in the bullseye nor would I be leaping out of a window if I was on the fringe . The spread is tighter but all you need is a little wiggle room I know it sounds like bs reasoning but I have never seen carbon copy runs no matter what storm I've followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Worst sign with this storm is upton calling for heavy accumulations Monday, you never see that, and this far out they usually are wrong Where does it say that? As of 2pm this is what I see. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FAVOR LESS PHASING...BUT ARE UNCLEAR ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. TAKING THESE TRENDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO OUR SE INSTEAD OF ONE COHERENT STRONGER STORM. THE FIRST LOW SHOULD TRACK NEAR THE BENCH MARK MONDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCH MARK LATE MONDAY...WITH A THIRD LOW TRACKING EVEN FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT...NOW EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM NW TO SE FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE SOLUTION IS NOW FAVORING MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS...VICE ONE MAIN LOW...SHOULD NOT DRAW AS MOISTURE AS A WHOLE INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. ONE THING THE FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK FOR THE LOWS DOES THOUGH...COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE N...IS THAT ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH...SO THE AREA SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS...BUT FOR NOW WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A FLUFFY SNOW THAN A WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SO THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE N COULD VERY WELL OFFSET THE LOWER QPF. AS A RESULT...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO DEPART FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE TREND CONTINUES TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE S SOLUTION...THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL - THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY THAT WOULD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS THAT A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS TO THE N THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...REDUCING AMOUNTS THERE. THIS ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SOLUTION STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREFS remain the same as previous runs further north. Almost has a GGEM look to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I do like Uptons discussion just saying their point and click forecast and HWO earlier is bad karma indicating 8"+ usually they start low and go higher they probably could have left out the "8" inch number and just went with the potential for a "warning criteria" storm. Basically saying he same thing but leaving out specific accumulation numbers for folks to get hung up on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF's still way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREFS are so off at this point. In fact sometimes they seem somewhat accurate but this time not so. Unless they are not yet in their wheelhouse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREFS remain the same as previous runs further north. Almost has a GGEM look to them. SREFS are north of most other guidance, particularly Euro and GFS but definitely a noticeable shift south with respect to previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF's still way north. They are based off the out to lunch NAM and other hi-res models. They shouldn't be regarded seriously at this point, if ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Have a feeling 18z and 0z runs will keep trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 they probably could have left out the "8" inch number and just went with the potential for a "warning criteria" storm. Basically saying he same thing but leaving out specific accumulation numbers for folks to get hung up on They were just being appropriately specific. 8" is warning criteria for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Have a feeling 18z and 0z runs will keep trending southcool story brah, that's your feeling. Belongs in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12 Z NAVGEM IMHO this will bump back north .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAVY.png 12 Z NAVGEM IMHO this will bump back north .. Agree with you if not by 0z by 12z tomrrw. May have to b inside 48 hours get the right handle on the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We all know the 18z NAM will show a MECS lol. I want too see its QPF trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NENJBanding Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When do the euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When do the euro ensembles come out?10 mins I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They are based off the out to lunch NAM and other hi-res models. They shouldn't be regarded seriously at this point, if ever. That is incorrect. The SREF is NOT based off the NAM. And since the SREF upgrade in 2012 it has been significantly more reliable. From SPC: "The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAVY.png 12 Z NAVGEM IMHO this will bump back north .. Next frame please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles are south. Nails the mid-atlantic. They aren't terrible unless you're in New England. Rough estimate is 0.6-0.7" QPF for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 fwiw, euro snow maps off accu pro site show the entirety on NJ in the 6-9" range. CT & LHV 3-6" presuming 10-1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I love uptons it's possible the entire area sees no snow. Another epic march fail IMO that has about a .00001 percent chance of happening. It's a lock someone in the area sees an inch And nice job jm on the don't worry about rain worry about suppression call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.