rsteff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don't worry, I'm apparently confusing and incompetent. Man, you deal with a tough crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This still has time to change, for better or for worse. I do seem to recall lots of people not wanting to be in the the bullseye a few days out anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I rather be here now, then seeing models kissing us with the 850 and surface line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks I figured it wasn't .75"+ for SNE coast like I read a few posts back.. So a bit more than GFS but main thing is a big trend south, if this trend continues game over for CT it's basically the 12z run from yesterday, just drier overall. Jackpots are 8-9 inches instead of 10-15. 0z run last night was back north, so appears it's playing a game of back and forth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I rather be here now, then seeing models kissing us with the 850 and surface line Yea, let it slowly tick north a little new few runs and it would be just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I rather be here now, then seeing models kissing us with the 850 and surface line EXACTLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For all who are panicing, (myself included) lets sit back and at-least wait until 0z or even tomorrows 12z suite, before sounding the alarms. Last couple runs of the gfs especially and the euro have jumped north, too way south of the area. They still deliever a solid snow event, just not your 10-15" so step off the ledge and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's a WAA event so a NW trend is inevitable as we get closer. We're not dealing with the confluence and PV placement of 2/6/10 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks I figured it wasn't .75"+ for SNE coast like I read a few posts back.. So a bit more than GFS but main thing is a big trend south, if this trend continues game over for CT Disconcerting to see the 2 biggies (Euro/GFS) move south on the 12z suite. We are probably now starting the zeroing in process on the eventual outcome with regards to precip amounts, but all the usual caveats still apply with regards to timeframe, southern stream disturbance, nothern stream interaction, etc. A 6-8" snowfall would be perfectly fine with me at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Worst sign with this storm is upton calling for heavy accumulations Monday, you never see that, and this far out they usually are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are not locked yet in our solutions guys. Should have a clear idea by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 I rather be here now, then seeing models kissing us with the 850 and surface line Very true and as we've gotten closer this year these storms more often than not have trended north to some degree. There should not be any widespread panic right now ladies and gents, take a breather it is one model suite out of how many? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I rather be here now, then seeing models kissing us with the 850 and surface line This is how I feel too. But I am on the coast and we are perpetually jaded with rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Worst sign with this storm is upton calling for heavy accumulations Monday, you never see that, and this far out they usually are wrong LOL-true. They were certainly taking the robust 6z GFS for that I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Worst sign with this storm is upton calling for heavy accumulations Monday, you never see that, and this far out they usually are wrong Upton s AFD this morning talked about accumulations of up to 8 inches to a shunt to rain mixing . Think all bases were covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Very true and as we've gotten closer this year these storms more often than not have trended north to some degree. There should not be any widespread panic right now ladies and gents, take a breather it is one model suite out of how many? I'm glad to see the south shift on the GFS/Euro at 12z as well. We might be sitting in a good spot for this. We also have some breathing room if there's another north shift (I still think that's pretty likely-the 500mb pattern doesn't scream for an outcome that keeps SNE dry). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Some qpf numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any word on the euro late week system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Worst sign with this storm is upton calling for heavy accumulations Monday, you never see that, and this far out they usually are wrong I see you are a red tagger but think Upton usually provides the most accurate forecast. And in their AFD today they basically leave open the possibility of all solutions. From suppressed to more phasing to a weaker PV leading to rain. They are not committing to anyhing yet. I assume they will have a more defined forecast tonight. Maybe taking the idea of rain out of the discussion which is what I think they were leaning towards and what the trends today show at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm sure if you had the option of picking the models too far north or too far south in a WAA situation nearly 3 days out then you'd pick the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any word on the euro late week system? OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Uptons hwo was very bullish when do you ever see 8" or more of snow is possible.. Bad karma they are usually conservative at first then go up as the storms comes closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NWS is dead on read their forecast discussion I totally agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any word on the euro late week system? Congrats Smoky Mountain NP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NWS is dead on read their forecast discussion I totally agree with it.can you link it please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NWS is dead on read their forecast discussion I totally agree with it. No link? I expected more than this from you sir tag of red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I see you are a red tagger but think Upton usually provides the most accurate forecast. And in their AFD today they basically leave open the possibility of all solutions. From suppressed to more phasing to a weaker PV leading to rain. They are not committing to anyhing yet. I assume they will have a more defined forecast tonight. Maybe taking the idea of rain out of the discussion which is what I think they were leaning towards and what the trends today show at a minimum. Uptons first snowfall forecasts are usually way off, then they adjust. It's mostly because they throw out numbers earlier than most. What I'm saying is their forecast usually changes a lot by the time the storm starts, and with this I'm afraid their adjustment will be down. I haven't been happy with Uptons snowfall maps lately called for 2-4" Sunday/Monday got nothing, called for 1-2" Wednesday got nothing.. Now they are saying 8"+ possible but we all thought that at 10am so let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 can you link it please http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Uptons first snowfall forecasts are usually way off, then they adjust. It's mostly because they throw out numbers earlier than most. What I'm saying is their forecast usually changes a lot by the time the storm starts, and with this I'm afraid their adjustment will be down. I haven't been happy with Uptons snowfall maps lately called for 2-4" Sunday/Monday got nothing, called for 1-2" Wednesday got nothing.. Now they are saying 8"+ possible but we all thought that at 10am so let's see What is uncle Paul thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What is uncle Paul thinking? Haven't talked to him today.. He doesn't seem too excited since he hasn't emailed me or anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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