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March 2-4 Snowstorm Potential Part 2


REDMK6GLI

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You said heavy snow makes it to sne..you can understand why people would think that meant the euro is north of the gfs

SNE peaks somewhere between hours 60 and 66 and extreme southern New England gets into the heavy snows briefly, or moderate snow depending on how you want to interpret it. The 0.75"+ contour touches the beaches of CT/RI and the Cape.

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Map please so I can see for myself, at lunch on phone. I've seen anywhere from nothing for swct and .75"+ Which is it? If it's less what wild swings by the "steady" euro. Usually it only adjusts slightly

Coastal CT from Greenwich through Bridgeport I95 south is in the .6"-.7" contour......north of there is in the .5"-.6" contour. Big shift south.

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I really think some people need to take a deep breath and step back here, even with the GFS and Euro shifting south on the 12z run it still gives a warning criteria snowfall to the NYC metro area. We also still have plenty of time for the GFS and Euro to come back north a bit, I am curious to know what the Euro ensembles will show. The 18z run of the GFS should be interesting and more importantly the 00z runs tonight to see if things keep going south, remain the same or shift back north.

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One thing I am taking from the Euro and GFS is that while they are fluctuating from run to run, they are starting to come into closer agreement and in fluctuating they are starting to do so in tandem, suggesting they may be the leaders on a consensus soon, perhaps as early tonight.  The PV is the big player here from what I can see and what HM suggests.  Anyone who thinks one model run should be locked in, is just asking for grief.

 

The nowcasting with this, could be quite fascinating.

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You want it to be south of you right now, so the euro and gfs show great things right now. It'll probably shift a bit further north tomorrow into Sunday.

UKMET looked almost like the 6z GFS which brought the sleet line almost to NYC, and the GGEM is different altogether from anything else. There's still much uncertainty and plenty of time for bumps north/south.

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I really think some people need to take a deep breath and step back here, even with the GFS and Euro shifting south on the 12z run it still gives a warning criteria snowfall to the NYC metro area. We also still have plenty of time for the GFS and Euro to come back north a bit, I am curious to know what the Euro ensembles will show. The 18z run of the GFS should be interesting and more importantly the 00z runs tonight to see if things keep going south, remain the same or shift back north.

 

Exactly. AND REMEMBER everyone: The season's trend all winter has been a shift south in models this far out from the event, to only then progress NORTH within 48 hours of the storm. 

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Coastal CT from Greenwich through Bridgeport I95 south is in the .6"-.7" contour......north of there is in the .5"-.6" contour. Big shift south.

Thanks I figured it wasn't .75"+ for SNE coast like I read a few posts back.. So a bit more than GFS but main thing is a big trend south, if this trend continues game over for CT

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