Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0.75"+ from KMMU south, 0.25"+ contour about 100 miles north of NYC. It's actually even further south and drier than the GFS, but not quite as sharp with the northern cut off as the GFS. That's the best I can say. Ur confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Agree. Euro has 12+ for alot of the area. Now it doesn't have that much. It has 12+ and also not much? If 0.75" makes it to NYC, that's still a very nice hit. Probably 8-10" given ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh well it seems the model to look for is GFS.. euro just keeps following its steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanks fan says " way north" all snow says way south lol??????? all snow and everyone else is right.. it might be beneficial to have allsnow just do the PBP to avoid confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It has 12+ and also not much? If 0.75" makes it to NYC, that's still a very nice hit. Probably 8-10" given ratios. I meant to say had. This run is still a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You said heavy snow makes it to sne..you can understand why people would think that meant the euro is north of the gfs SNE peaks somewhere between hours 60 and 66 and extreme southern New England gets into the heavy snows briefly, or moderate snow depending on how you want to interpret it. The 0.75"+ contour touches the beaches of CT/RI and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think we all need to keep our expectations low As this seems to be trending away from our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It has 12+ and also not much? If 0.75" makes it to NYC, that's still a very nice hit. Probably 8-10" given ratios. Think he meant to say "had" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SNE peaks somewhere between hours 60 and 66 and extreme southern New England gets into the heavy snows briefly, or moderate snow depending on how you want to interpret it. The 0.75"+ contour touches the beaches of CT/RI and the Cape. mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SNE peaks somewhere between hours 60 and 66 and extreme southern New England gets into the heavy snows briefly, or moderate snow depending on how you want to interpret it. If you interpret 0.1" in 6 hours as "heavy snow"....I got nothin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think we all need to keep our expectations low As this seems to be trending away from our favor. This is a warning criteria snow on the Euro for a lot of our subforum's CWAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dont they have things called bouys and also AF recon as well? I can understand the poor sampling in canada part but the pacific has some pretty good sampling especially near shore i think NHC website doesn't show any Pacific Winter storm tasking, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you interpret 0.1" in 6 hours as "heavy snow"....I got nothin. Then why does the 0.75"+ contour make it to the SNE beaches? That's not all light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 BTW I have AllSnow on ignore, so I have no idea what he's saying, so please don't make posts asking why what I'm saying is different than his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Map please so I can see for myself, at lunch on phone. I've seen anywhere from nothing for swct and .75"+ Which is it? If it's less what wild swings by the "steady" euro. Usually it only adjusts slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ...The 0.75"+ contour touches the beaches of CT/RI and the Cape. Assuming this is true this is probably the best description for folks east of NYC where the 0.75" contour is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Like I said before, it's 6-10 for most of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Crazy we were bracing for a North trend 6 hours ago and everything goes south...lol. Will be curious to see short range models sort this out tomorrow and 12z Sunday... plenty of time to go one way or another but telling that both the GFS and Euro have that much of a shift..m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At .75 at 12 to 1 . Still looks good from nyc south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Assuming this is true this is probably the best description for folks east of NYC where the 0.75" is located. Don't worry, I'm apparently confusing and incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Map please so I can see for myself, at lunch on phone. I've seen anywhere from nothing for swct and .75"+ Which is it? If it's less what wild swings by the "steady" euro. Usually it only adjusts slightly Coastal CT from Greenwich through Bridgeport I95 south is in the .6"-.7" contour......north of there is in the .5"-.6" contour. Big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 so GFS 6-10 and Euro 6-8, clearly today is a marked step back for NYC proper, onwards to evening suite & hope that there isnt more of south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You want it to be south of you right now, so the euro and gfs show great things right now. It'll probably shift a bit further north tomorrow into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really think some people need to take a deep breath and step back here, even with the GFS and Euro shifting south on the 12z run it still gives a warning criteria snowfall to the NYC metro area. We also still have plenty of time for the GFS and Euro to come back north a bit, I am curious to know what the Euro ensembles will show. The 18z run of the GFS should be interesting and more importantly the 00z runs tonight to see if things keep going south, remain the same or shift back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One thing I am taking from the Euro and GFS is that while they are fluctuating from run to run, they are starting to come into closer agreement and in fluctuating they are starting to do so in tandem, suggesting they may be the leaders on a consensus soon, perhaps as early tonight. The PV is the big player here from what I can see and what HM suggests. Anyone who thinks one model run should be locked in, is just asking for grief. The nowcasting with this, could be quite fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You want it to be south of you right now, so the euro and gfs show great things right now. It'll probably shift a bit further north tomorrow into Sunday. UKMET looked almost like the 6z GFS which brought the sleet line almost to NYC, and the GGEM is different altogether from anything else. There's still much uncertainty and plenty of time for bumps north/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Like I said before, it's 6-10 for most of this area. in the grand scheme of things middlesex county is probably a good place to be at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really think some people need to take a deep breath and step back here, even with the GFS and Euro shifting south on the 12z run it still gives a warning criteria snowfall to the NYC metro area. We also still have plenty of time for the GFS and Euro to come back north a bit, I am curious to know what the Euro ensembles will show. The 18z run of the GFS should be interesting and more importantly the 00z runs tonight to see if things keep going south, remain the same or shift back north. Exactly. AND REMEMBER everyone: The season's trend all winter has been a shift south in models this far out from the event, to only then progress NORTH within 48 hours of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Coastal CT from Greenwich through Bridgeport I95 south is in the .6"-.7" contour......north of there is in the .5"-.6" contour. Big shift south. Thanks I figured it wasn't .75"+ for SNE coast like I read a few posts back.. So a bit more than GFS but main thing is a big trend south, if this trend continues game over for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems like the gfs is leading the way on this. The euro has just been following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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