JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HM: It is all about the delicate play between 2 PVs across Canada and their respective lobes. This determines the amount of influence Quebec will have on our storm. It is that "simple." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you compare this to 2/6/10, the only WAA event like this I can think of that fringed/missed large parts of the area, the PV then was much further south, just NE of Maine, and in a position to suppress the flow too much. Although the PV now is deeper, it is forecast to be significantly further north than that one was. The shortwave now is weaker than that one was, but the confluence zone over the Northeast this time is nothing like that was. Most of northern and central New England had mid level winds from the NW then, funneling in huge amounts of dry air. The flow now looks west to east, and would permit more moisture north. This looks much more similar aloft to early Feb 1994, which had heavy snow well into New England. The PV was a lot further north then than 2/6/10, and moisture was able to penetrate very far north. So I think the panicking about suppression is unwarranted. If the Euro goes south we can have a discussion, but I doubt given the 500mb pattern that it's a real danger. Horizontal PGF = dp/dn In terms of influence: could not the stronger PV make up for the increased distance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nothing obviously beats good hard data...but the sampling argument can be overused sometimes. True the sampling argument can be overused. But can we quantify the differences between land and sea data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is way further north than the GFS at hour 66. Heavy snow all the way up to SNE. Light snow to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 66 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah euro is going south. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Horizontal PGF = dp/dn In terms of influence: could not the stronger PV make up for the increased distance? The stronger PV will provide a very cold air source for this time of the year, but the mid level wind direction argues for a fairly far north snow zone in my opinion, at least a good lot further than 2/6/10. That storm had the weaker PV centered very far south and in a position to cause huge confluence over New England, causing a brick wall for any snow making it north of I-78. The wind direction this time is west to east, and there is good lift from the upper level jet over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is way further north than the GFS at hour 66. Heavy snow all the way up to SNE. Light snow to Boston. That's light QPF...it's very similar to the GFS with the heavy stuff and also the more positively tilted trough compared to last nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So far light snow hour 60-66. Moderate snow 66-72. KY River Valley crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is coming in colder and drier and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Plenty cold from dca-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 72 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanks fan says " way north" all snow says way south lol??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It swings around a lobe on the south side of that PV at a very poor time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's light QPF...it's very similar to the GFS with the heavy stuff and also the more positively tilted trough compared to last nights runs. Yes the heavy stuff is south of here but it doesn't mean it's dry here either. The cut off isn't nearly as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanks fan says " way north" all snow says way south lol??????? It's less dramatic of a northern cut off than the GFS, how's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanks fan says " way north" all snow says way south lol??????? Yanksfan needs a break apparently then...the Euro has .75" from NYC south and it was obvious that was coming as early as 30 hours into the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Heavy snow never makes it north of NYC. Phl and snj crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 78 mod snow nyc and nw..Heavy snow LI CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's less dramatic of a northern cut off than the GFS, how's that? That makes more sense. It shifted south dramatically from last night however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In and out in about 18-24 hours. Longer duration the further south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanksfan needs a break apparently then...the Euro has .75" from NYC south and it was obvious that was coming as early as 30 hours into the model run. Yeah idk why he said that. It looks like the gfs. Nothing meaningful in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, this is really something. Just goes to show you our effects will all come down to the orientation of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanksfan needs a break apparently then...the Euro has .75" from NYC south and it was obvious that was coming as early as 30 hours into the model run. Once again someone misinterpreted my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This run looks like 6-8" south of NYC and much less north of it. If you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 .75+ from NYC south. .5 to bdr. .10 to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, this is really something. Just goes to show you our effects will all come down to the orientation of the PV. Agree. Euro had 12+ for alot of the area. Now it doesn't have that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Once again someone misinterpreted my post. You said heavy snow makes it to sne..you can understand why people would think that meant the euro is north of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0.75"+ from KMMU south, 0.25"+ contour about 100 miles north of NYC. It's actually even further south and drier than the GFS, but not quite as sharp with the northern cut off as the GFS. That's the best I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is way further north than the GFS at hour 66. Heavy snow all the way up to SNE. Light snow to Boston. not its not at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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