96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am going to say this one last time and then focus on my other forum where there is far less banter that is not backed up via meteorological knowledge: The piece. Of energy. In question. Has not yet reached the West Coast of the United States. THEREFORE, sampling of this energy cannot fully take place within the models until tonight's 00z. A shift within one GFS run truly cannot displace everyone's belief in the storm nor discount the previous runs. PLEASE keep posts within the realm of meteorologically, backed-up ideas. There are most assuredly better ways to address this. How about the energy to be sample isn't the only piece of the puzzle. If the PV is too strong it may not matter what the energy looks like once fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not sure why people think the oceans are a vacuum of initialization data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Be careful. In a tight qpf gradient storm, which is possible, an ensemble mean isn't the best thing to use. I'm aware of that. But Yanksfan made sound worse than it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You look at what's going on and you use your head. You have a stationary front somewhere to our south and the PV pressing down overhead. Their will inevitably be a band of heavy snow somewhere in between, and that is indeed in question. But it's the setup that generates an extremely tight north to south precipitation gradient on each side of the band. Furthermore, if we do get somewhat of a deformation banding axis, we'll likely see areas of subsidence on the northern and southern edges. On the 12z GFS anyone from I-80 northward is dangerously close to being caught in the subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm aware of that. But Yanksfan made sound worse than it was. It was if you live a bit north of NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not sure why people think the oceans are a vacuum of initialization data. Dont they have things called bouys and also AF recon as well? I can understand the poor sampling in canada part but the pacific has some pretty good sampling especially near shore i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am going to say this one last time and then focus on my other forum where there is far less banter that is not backed up via meteorological knowledge: The piece. Of energy. In question. Has not yet reached the West Coast of the United States. THEREFORE, sampling of this energy cannot fully take place within the models until tonight's 00z. A shift within one GFS run truly cannot displace everyone's belief in the storm nor discount the previous runs. PLEASE keep posts within the realm of meteorologically, backed-up ideas. CoastalWx pretty much debunked the whole "not sampled yet" theory. We have very good remote sensing so just because the shortwave hasn't made it onto U.S. soil doesn't mean the solutions we're seeing are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This thumping or thrashing of each and every run from run to run and then model to model has to stop (at either end of the spectrum). It is drowning out serious meterological thought discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 CoastalWx pretty much debunked the whole "not sampled yet" theory. We have very good remote sensing so just because the shortwave hasn't made it onto U.S. soil doesn't mean the solutions we're seeing are garbage. The boxing day blizzard reallt added fire to the sampling arguement that is for sure. Every storm now is expected to have some miracle trend almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There are most assuredly better ways to address this. How about the energy to be sample isn't the only piece of the puzzle. If the PV is too strong it may not matter what the energy looks like once fully sampled. Sure, I'll address that. The piece of energy being sampled better will result in figuring out its interaction WITH the northern stream, along with the arctic air mass. Knowing it's interaction with the northern stream will account for knowing how strong this piece is when it arrives here, and how suppressed, if at all, it will be by that arctic air mass. It is VERY important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CoastalWx pretty much debunked the whole "not sampled yet" theory. We have very good remote sensing so just because the shortwave hasn't made it onto U.S. soil doesn't mean the solutions we're seeing are garbage. It's not a matter of them being 'garbage' --- it's a matter of WHY you are seeing such Inconsistency with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CoastalWx pretty much debunked the whole "not sampled yet" theory. We have very good remote sensing so just because the shortwave hasn't made it onto U.S. soil doesn't mean the solutions we're seeing are garbage. Nothing obviously beats good hard data...but the sampling argument can be overused sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dont they have things called bouys and also AF recon as well? I can understand the poor sampling in canada part but the pacific has some pretty good sampling especially near shore i think I mean, I don't fully understand the principles behind NWP (it'd be naive to assume I knew much of anything about it), and to be fair weather recon flights are exceedingly rare in the Eastern Pacific, but there is an immense network of remote sensing all over the place. A few extra radiosondes might ensure you're not missing some anomaly with significant downstream implications, but they're not the miracle cure for suboptimal model performance (or, perhaps more disappointingly, undesirable solutions for your back yard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's not a matter of them being 'garbage' --- it's a matter of WHY you are seeing such Inconsistency with the models. Because the situation is so delicate that every PV wobble, move and strength of the srn s/w means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sure, I'll address that. The piece of energy being sampled better will result in figuring out its interaction WITH the northern stream, along with the arctic air mass. Knowing it's interaction with the northern stream will account for knowing how strong this piece is when it arrives here, and how suppressed, if at all, it will be by that arctic air mass. It is VERY important.Appreciate the civil response. My earlier comment was that major shifts as we get closer are cause for concern for those who want snow on either "edge" of the spectrum. You can disagree, but I think the technology we have is sufficient enough to give is a good idea of what the storm will look like before being on land. Perhaps it's a perception thing versus 100% science. If I'm about to buy a home in 30 days and mortgage rates spike, I'm going to be worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Because the situation is so delicate that every PV wobble, move and strength of the srn s/w means everything. Can you come pitch a tent in our forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The sampling thing is more an issue when a disturbance is coming out of NW Canada than off the Hawaii region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Appreciate the civil response. My earlier comment was that major shifts as we get closer are cause for concern for those who want snow on either "edge" of the spectrum. You can disagree, but I think the technology we have is sufficient enough to give is a good idea of what the storm will look like before being on land. Perhaps it's a perception thing versus 100% science. If I'm about to buy a home in 30 days and mortgage rates spike, I'm going to be worried! Lol. Yes, I can understand that. However, this really is more about science. And any MET will tell you that getting on-land sampling of piece of energy coming off the Pacific IS critical in gaining a more accurate forecast. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The sampling thing is more an issue when a disturbance is coming out of NW Canada than off the Hawaii region I agree. Yet, it is still an issue at least. Especially considering all of the players involved in this complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I love where the models are right now. We look to be in a great spot. Wobbles will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Based on the theme (progressive/cold/confluent) of this season there is far more risk of this being too far south/cold for most of us, than too far north/warm. I think the chances of a big event go down dramatically north of 41N. Extreme southern New England and especially northern Mid Atlantic look best here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is another thank God it's not 1988 storm, cannot even imagine how bad the forecasts would be for this because little variation is big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I love where the models are right now. We look to be in a great spot. Wobbles will happen very much agreed , im just a bit north of you -- I expect there to be some wobbles and Im nervous to bit but I do have to say I like where we currently sit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can you come pitch a tent in our forum? It looked like many have after the GFS...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 from HM: Between 48-72hr, watch the 500mb plots over Ontario-Quebec. The GGEM makes this wave into a very elongated / assertive wave that rapidly lifts "round 1" and then suppresses "round 2" ... more of a frontal look. The GFS is more consolidated / not as deep with this wave, but does have it. That seems to be the key difference here. The specifics of the storm itself are irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You look at what's going on and you use your head. You have a stationary front somewhere to our south and the PV pressing down overhead. Their will inevitably be a band of heavy snow somewhere in between, and that is indeed in question. But it's the setup that generates an extremely tight north to south precipitation gradient on each side of the band. Furthermore, if we do get somewhat of a deformation banding axis, we'll likely see areas of subsidence on the northern and southern edges. On the 12z GFS anyone from I-80 northward is dangerously close to being caught in the subsidence. If you compare this to 2/6/10, the only WAA event like this I can think of that fringed/missed large parts of the area, the PV then was much further south, just NE of Maine, and in a position to suppress the flow too much. Although the PV now is deeper, it is forecast to be significantly further north than that one was. The shortwave now is weaker than that one was, but the confluence zone over the Northeast this time is nothing like that was. Most of northern and central New England had mid level winds from the NW then, funneling in huge amounts of dry air. The flow now looks west to east, and would permit more moisture north. This looks much more similar aloft to early Feb 1994, which had heavy snow well into New England. The PV was a lot further north then than 2/6/10, and moisture was able to penetrate very far north. So I think the panicking about suppression is unwarranted. If the Euro goes south we can have a discussion, but I doubt given the 500mb pattern that it's a real danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Both the GFS and now the Euro really drop the PV hammer between hours 42 and 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro will almost certainly come in farther south this run. Not hard to see already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So far the scattered weak activity Sunday morning is well NW of this area up towards the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Both the GFS and now the Euro really drop the PV hammer between hours 42 and 48. and you can hear a pin drop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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