SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the trend for a stronger shortwave continues then things will shift a bit further north but a cutoff near I-80 or just to the north is becoming apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:55 PM, allgame830 said: Well at this point it seems like at least 3-6 inches across the area is likely anything more would be a bonus! Yea thats my philosophy with this storm! Even more so as I will likely be in Armonk (and not Manhattan) which is def very borderline for anything more than 3-4" based on current model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well look at it this way.....if we get a couple inches and philly gets 12, at least it's not over 25" difference like in 2010 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:57 PM, Neblizzard said: The erratic shifts in the NAM give it no credibility IMO. I'm riding the GFS and Euro on this one. We deal with the NAM and high resolution models tomorrow AM. The NAM is supposed to have erratic shifts past 48 hrs since it's a meso model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Stop living and dying by every run, it's ridiculous. Also many need to stop believing they are psychics and could see the future like the storm already happened. Mother Nature will do what she wants, it doesn't go by a Nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:00 PM, WintersGrasp said: Well look at it this way.....if we get a couple inches and philly gets 12, at least it's not over 25" difference like in 2010 Sent from my iPhone That's the thing, NAM is out of range yes, however the extent of the cut off can be looked at. I doubt we get anything. Don't you guys want spring already?! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:55 PM, winterwarlock said: Can we stop with the 12-1 ratio stuff....assume 10-1 most of the timeYou Start at 10 to 1 and go to 12 to 1. The GFS and EURO take ur 850s to minus 12 so at 700 it shouldn't b far behindYou and I have argued ths all week lol So let's see what the soundings look like. Usually I'm 10 to 1. But I think this is gona cool the whole column and there s prob sone good lift coming through. So I like 10 to 1. Going to 12 to 1 The max here is I 78 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:05 PM, BlizzardNYC said: why are you here??? Cause Im usually one of the most optimistic / borderline weenie here haha. This storm just always seemed fishy to me from the start. Not a case of weenie suicide or anything. I always anticipated this storm as a sheared out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:03 PM, NJWeather201 said: That's the thing, NAM is out of range yes, however the extent of the cut off can be looked at. I doubt we get anything. Don't you guys want spring already?! lol If the cold air is there, we might as well have snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:08 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: If the cold air is there, we might as well have snow Ugh, tell me about it. This PV push is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOL chill the weather is gonna do whatever it wants to do the trend is your friend .Hey watch the storm now it is fascinating the models programming was written by human beings nuff said peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM hr 36 hr 42 hr 48 If anyone is interested in the link, here it is http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=12〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:12 PM, mulen said: LOL chill the weather is gonna do whatever it wants to do the trend is your friend .Hey watch the storm now it is fascinating the models programming was written by human beings nuff said peace. On 3/1/2014 at 3:12 PM, mulen said: LOL chill the weather is gonna do whatever it wants to do the trend is your friend .Hey watch the storm now it is fascinating the models programming was written by human beings nuff said peace. Vintage mulen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:13 PM, Rjay said: RGEM hr 36 hr 42 hr 48 You can tell that's going south. Not a surprise at ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not sure if this was posted but here is Upton's snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:14 PM, NJWeather201 said: You can tell that's going south. Not a surprise at ALL. Right in line with GGEM... As expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:14 PM, NJWeather201 said: You can tell that's going south. Not a surprise at ALL. Further north then the latest nam....seems to me that map would get at least decent sows into c/n nj and NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:19 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Right in line with GGEM... As expected Yes, GGEM is a BIG winner here. Makes this "complicated" storm look like an easy piece of cake to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:17 PM, Snow88 said: Not sure if this was posted but here is Upton's snowmap Will get nyc to number 2 all time. I agree with the 8 to 10 that would head right down in Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:20 PM, NJWeather201 said: Yes, GGEM is a BIG winner here. Makes this "complicated" storm look like an easy piece of cake to forecast. I didn't know the storm was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:19 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Further north then the latest nam.... Comparing it to the nam is pointless... Compare it to it's previous runs and it's almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The biggest GFS run of the year is stepping up to the plate, bottom of the 9th, Yanks are down by 3 ! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:20 PM, PB GFI said: Will get nyc to number 2 all time. I agree with the 8 to 10 that would head right down in Monmouth County. I'm in the jackpot on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does the rgem go further out than 48 or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS semi-argue a slight shift north. I think the heavist snow makes it to NYCs door. Time will tell. We could have a 10-25 mile shift even 12-24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:21 PM, Blizzardo said: The biggest GFS run of the year is stepping up to the plate, bottom of the 9th, Yanks are down by 3 ! Lol We need a bill Buckner type scenario lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:21 PM, Snow88 said: I didn't know the storm was over. Its just everyone was praising the GFS for consistency, yet the GGEM has been the most consistent ive ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:23 PM, NJWeather201 said: Its just everyone was praising the GFS for consistency, yet the GGEM has been the most consistent ive ever seen! I agree with that but the models can still shift at the last minute like we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 One question when was the last time the GEM hit the forecast as depicted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 3:22 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: We need a bill Buckner type scenario lmao lol, "and the precip gets by the confluence!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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