Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 9:07 AM, Highzenberg said: The NAM consolidates the two pieces too much, unfortunately most likely expect it to shift south next run, however it did have a better shortwave... I know my models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 1:27 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I know but some of their expectations are for 12-18" from what I've read You are high. That describes literally no one on that forum. Not one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:17 PM, Highzenberg said: I know my models You want a biscuit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:09 PM, Rjay said: This JM! This is exactly why you never freak out or change any predictions you have made. 0z tonight would have been the time to do that if this had stayed south. On 3/1/2014 at 2:09 PM, Rjay said: This JM! This is exactly why you never freak out or change any predictions you have made. 0z tonight would have been the time to do that if this had stayed south. Well it is hard to call some of these; WNYC, CBS, WINS, were sticking to 6-12 early this morning, now saying 6 for the city and more south, less north. And it sounds like even that may change. Time to sit back and let it roll. I'll be following here and thanks to all for your contributions no matter what they are, there are many nonpros like me who really do appreciate your efforts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:18 PM, Blizzardo said: You want a biscuit ? No, just some damn respect. It was fairly obvious NAM was up to its old tricks. I expect the 18z NAM to show a stronger wave down south & based on GFS/EURO ensembles a tick north on both of them...NYC will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The NAM is pretty significantly colder thru 39h compared to 6z. The surface freezing line is off the Twin Forks, PHL is below is freezing as is the majority of NJ with the exception of the SE counties. This looks nothing like 6z to me, looks much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And again, we see why the NAM is a nutty model. HUGE South shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC going to get hit good. 850s very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Forget the NAM, it's really for entertainment only past 36 hours. I pay much more attention to models like the GFS and Euro in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam shoved south again ...this is why I don't follow it. Huge run to run changes ....happens almost every single run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam qpf bomb incoming for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:20 PM, monmouthcounty11 said: The NAM is pretty significantly colder thru 39h compared to 6z. The surface freezing line is off the Twin Forks, PHL is below is freezing as is the majority of NJ with the exception of the SE counties. This looks nothing like 6z to me, looks much further south. It was totally obvious the 6z NAM was out of its mind, it had a ridiculous low over WV/VA which the NAM loves to do with placing lows in the wrong place out ahead of shortwaves...Seen it over and over for 13 years. NAM will be a HUGE hit for N VA, but expect continuing trends North with th emain shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:19 PM, Highzenberg said: No, just some damn respect. It was fairly obvious NAM was up to its old tricks. I expect the 18z NAM to show a stronger wave down south & based on GFS/EURO ensembles a tick north on both of them...NYC will be okay. Same here the NAM is known to be erratic at any range and you are good with you models ill say that. The 6z GFS was encouraging and would not shock me the least to see the 12Z bump north a good bit with a stronger southern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6z was the over amped run everyone was waiting for other than that,who cares what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:23 PM, Highzenberg said: It was totally obvious the 6z NAM was out of its mind, it had a ridiculous low over WV/VA which the NAM loves to do with placing lows in the wrong place out ahead of shortwaves...Seen it over and over for 13 years. NAM will be a HUGE hit for N VA, but expect continuing trends North with th emain shortwaveagreed. ..if u nix the 6z this actually ticked a little north based on 0z it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This run seems to be an improvement comparing it to the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I want to illustrate how different the 6z NAM is v. 12z, these are both for 12z Monday: 12z: 6z: 0z for reference too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:17 PM, NE Balti Zen said: You are high. That describes literally no one on that forum. Not one.He was relaying what he had read, not what he expects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:25 PM, allgame830 said: This run seems to be an improvement comparing it to the 0z NAM Starting to pick up on more confluence north of I-80 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam. Second wave at 51. Through CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Confluence was stronger overall than on the 12z NAM than the 0z and 6z NAM. Not a good trend, from this model, for heavy snow in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .9 to the ocean Monmouth border. .8 into Monmouth county .7 to Staten Island .6 to knyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:30 PM, PB GFI said: .9 to the ocean Monmouth border. .8 into Monmouth county .7 to Staten Island .6 to knyc. How about further north to BDR or DXR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:29 PM, Weathergun said: Confluence was stronger overall than on the 12z NAM than the 0z and 6z NAM. Not a good sign from this model, for heavy snow in our area. Looks something like general 0z Euro idea with sharper cutoff north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4KM will be telling. Its all frozen for PHL-NYC it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:30 PM, PB GFI said: .9 to the ocean Monmouth border. .8 into Monmouth county .7 to Staten Island .6 to knyc. Pauly, Right in line with other models but hoping GFS comes north by 75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 PHL gets an 1+ from this run, DC 1.5-2. Very sharp cutoff especially well north and west of the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 On 3/1/2014 at 2:31 PM, friedmators said: :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably not a lot of snow for anyone around this area on this run-the initial wave is borderline with temps and may be a lot of sleet, the second wave is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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