stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 its so south that it screws PA from the heavy precip Enjoy FL brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The improvements with the pv are noticeable but the real signal here is the powerful source region. Amazing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Monkey on crack run from the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No way. Dr. Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 why's that? your "warm" comment, just made me giggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol...wxbell maps are going to be ridiculous...even my maps show 10-12" for DC proper and NW burbs at 10:1 ratios... Believe it or not they only show 7+/- in dc. Fred county - winchester big winners with 15-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 your "warm" comment, just made me giggle. He's right to be cautious of course...but the run verbatim is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 your "warm" comment, just made me giggle. i dont have my faster euro access at work.. initially it was quite a bit warmer than the gfs but then the sfc crashes during the day. but at like 6z euro has 32 at the pa border while the gfs has it south of RIC. i always look at storms critically . otherwise I'd have just ridden by initial idea that this storm would be the one since i mentioned it like 10+ days ago. either way.. no crippling ice storm here still seems a good bet. also this is a decent shift run to run.. who knows. i don't, won't pretend i do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Mappy's gonna need help shoveling. I work for food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Pretty much convinced that we are in a pattern that temps are not a problem even if early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yep . I'd say that is full cave. Go America !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i dont have my faster euro access at work.. initially it was quite a bit warmer than the gfs but then the sfc crashes during the day. but at like 6z euro has 32 at the pa border while the gfs has it south of RIC. i always look at storms critically . otherwise I'd have just ridden by initial idea that this storm would be the one since i mentioned it like 10+ days ago. either way.. no crippling ice storm here still seems a good bet. also this is a decent shift run to run.. who knows. i don't, won't pretend i do. your comment wasn't wrong, it was just one sorta negative comment surrounded by all these "wooo!" "party time!" "drink up!" posts... that it made me giggle. Don't take it personally, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 He's right to be cautious of course...but the run verbatim is sick we kinda get "screwed" with the heaviest staying just north. i don't think i've seen a storm like this since i've been here if it happens this way? im sorta confused by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i dont have my faster euro access at work.. initially it was quite a bit warmer than the gfs but then the sfc crashes during the day. but at like 6z euro has 32 at the pa border while the gfs has it south of RIC. i always look at storms critically . otherwise I'd have just ridden by initial idea that this storm would be the one since i mentioned it like 10+ days ago. either way.. no crippling ice storm here still seems a good bet. also this is a decent shift run to run.. who knows. i don't, won't pretend i do. I'm cautious as heck just like you. My comparing to the gfs was more of simply having a colder solution on the table regardless of the exact details. Below freezing is below freezing when it counts no matter which ptype. Pretty kick a$$ run but it's the first after a long string of crappy ones. And the ensembles backed off last night. Can't overlook any of that. GFS seem to be first here suggesting the majority of precip is the frozen type. We can only hope it holds. Bust potential is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol i knew this would happen. I was hoping to only escape missing an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we kinda get "screwed" with the heaviest staying just north. i don't think i've seen a storm like this since i've been here if it happens this way? im sorta confused by it. It's still a NW favored event, but verbatim gets like 2" of snow down to the VA/NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol i knew this would happen. I was hoping to only escape missing an ice storm pretend you have a dental emergency and need your wisdom tooth pulled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I also don't think I have ever seen anything like this for the entire first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Check out the EURO @ 156, uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's still a NW favored event, but verbatim gets like 2" of snow down to the VA/NC border yeah it's fine. i wouldn't complain.. n/w wins like 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Monkey on crack run from the king. ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_21.png fits the season perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 my wife thinks she has walking phemonnia. She has an dr appointment today but that may be my only hope. Cant leave her home sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 its so south that it screws PA from the heavy precip I can handle that type of screwing as depicted by the EURO everyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm cautious as heck just like you. My comparing to the gfs was more of simply having a colder solution on the table regardless of the exact details. Below freezing is below freezing when it counts no matter which ptype. Pretty kick a$$ run but it's the first after a long string of crappy ones. And the ensembles backed off last night. Can't overlook any of that. GFS seem to be first here suggesting the majority of precip is the frozen type. We can only hope it holds. Bust potential is enormous. I think I've been pretty bullish despite being skeptical. I don't see a need to be all in on an anomalous event even at this range. I've said numerous times to toss climo out the window to some degree etc. Having the Euro aboard an event def makes it a bit more real.. though we probably need at least one more run to get too excited. I've been at this too long to start wooing and congratulating myself just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 you and I are fine, but I think we both know how these things go. We eventually end up in the 2-4 zone. fits the season perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's an insanely tight gradient north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yeah it's fine. i wouldn't complain.. n/w wins like 95% of the time. yeah..I dont really see how they wouldnt do better than us in this setup..which is fine...even a 2-4" event would be neat for the city..I'm not emotionally invested in this one....however I will be up for the Euro of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yeah..I dont really see how they wouldnt do better than us in this setup..which is fine...even a 2-4" event would be neat for the city..I'm not emotionally invested in this one....however I will be up for the Euro of courseMaybe we can pull off a snow event then another after. We do monster winter or crap winter. A 20" winter doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Pretty much convinced that we are in a pattern that temps are not a problem even if early March. It was 9 degrees in my yard this morning. I have had single digit wind chills this afternoon. And I still have large sections of my yard, and not just shaded or north-facing, with snow cover, which seems kinda incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think I've been pretty bullish despite being skeptical. I don't see a need to be all in on an anomalous event even at this range. I've said numerous times to toss climo out the window to some degree etc. Having the Euro aboard an event def makes it a bit more real.. though we probably need at least one more run to get too excited. I've been at this too long to start wooing and congratulating myself just yet. I also agree about tossing climo a bit. There is stout cold available. Putting it to good use can be tricky. I can easily see us not getting the cold in here until the vast majority of the precip is done. Trends today help quell those concerns. No mistaking that. but it's still a d4 event so bad shifts can come just as easy as good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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