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March Madness 03/03/2014 -------> The EURO abides


winterymix

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GGEM looks like it shows a 2 part system, first part is warm, but it lays the cold down, and the main low comes through and dumps on you guys

 

So the 3 "major" models are 3 different solutions.  Lovely :axe:

 

EURO -- warm, not much wintry

GFS -- sig ice storm

GGEM -- warm 1st part, snowstorm 2nd part

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So the skepticism is over the ice depiction, then? We are not so far into March that I find the idea that we might get an area-wide ice storm set-up as laughable as some of you.

uhh you new here?

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Mostly frozen precip. on this run. Back to back cold runs of GFS . And the Euro was also a little more south. Starting to think, as Matt has already mentioned , that if the temps are close to what the last 2 runs of GFS depict, then we r looking @ major icing. 51 years in Rockville. Never have seen major ice storm in March. We'll see what the Euro does.

1994 was pure ice for every storm.

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FYI the GGEM does what the NAM was about to do. Everyone was saying the NAM was warm, but if you looked at H5 the main shortwave was still west of Texas....This is a way you guys could cash in...

more importantly: how epic is day 10? 

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I already mentioned this date in another thread- 3/13/84. Not a crippling ice storm, but enough to cause power outages in the suburbs.

Here's IAD: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAD/1984/3/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA (DCA changed to rain around 9 am as a comparison).

 

There were multiple reports of icy roads and interstates too in the VA and MD close-in suburbs.

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I already mentioned this date in another thread- 3/13/84. Not a crippling ice storm, but enough to cause power outages in the suburbs.

Here's IAD: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAD/1984/3/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA (DCA changed to rain around 9 am as a comparison).

 

that has been a frequent analog on the models for a week now...knew about the storm on the 8th obviously and think we got snow on the 11th?...didn't know about the ice event until you mentioned it yesterday

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The March climo point is legit but clearly North America isn't seeing typical temperatures next two weeks. If the cloud deck is thick enough to battle the sun on Monday, what's to stop ice accumulation? If ice fails, it will be for the same reasons it fails in January...the synoptic setup.

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