Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks Ian. lol- if you blend everything that's what you get. And it's 4 days away so the end of my forecast would say this period needs to be watched closely. I don't think the temps are impossible. Just improbable. Climo can never be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I haven't seen the run but the GFS sucks so until the euro shows us getting crippled I'm going to assume it's not happening. The GFS also showed us getting a high of like 15 next Wednesday yesterday which would be the coldest high on record in March. Agreed, until the Euro comes on board the likely hood of this happening is slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 on panel 96 on the 12z is compared to the panel 102 on the 6z... the freezing line is 100 miles or so north. Is it a trend to the Euro... we do not know yet... we need more runs. More like 50... its just north of RIC... its not like its horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event. I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold I was thinking the same thing. That would be historic in and of itself! I am hoping for sleet if not snow when it gets that cold, or less precip. Can we get a look at records? Highs, lows and low highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS has temp going from +8 to freezing between 2 and 8pm on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This isn't for us... Everyone in the NYC sub-forum is very happy. Maybe this thing will move south and we'll get a HECS??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Most people see what they want to see, even if it defies logic. most people don't interject to many variables when they look at models!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 this looks like a great ice event...sucks to be missing it. I have been waiting for a crippling ice event for a looong time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol- if you blend everything that's what you get. And it's 4 days away so the end of my forecast would say this period needs to be watched closely. I don't think the temps are impossible. Just improbable. Climo can never be ignored. You are learning, climo wins 90% of the time here. Your forecast is actually very good for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 how could we be so cursed to be at 39.5 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Agreed, until the Euro comes on board the likely hood of this happening is slim.Raw temps are bad in midwinter and I get the sense they are worse in this case. If it is showing upper teens to low 20s that's a lot of breathing room... I dunno. I hope all the trees in the city come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This isn't for us... Everyone in the NYC sub-forum is very happy. Maybe this thing will move south and we'll get a HECS??? lol I trust a model up to a certain point and then wait to see what really happens. Been alive to long to trust them completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Matt has there ever been an ice storm of .5" in March in our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This isn't for us... Everyone in the NYC sub-forum is very happy. Maybe this thing will move south and we'll get a HECS??? lol Good for them... this is the Mid-Atlantic though... I don't think many care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Some dude did an analysis of the accuracy of the 4 runs. It was a fairly detailed look. I can't remember who posted it or where the link is. 6z overall performed the worst and it had to do with the least amount of additional data input. Overall the differences are negligible. I've never been a gfs run basher. I think the model is a great tool with all 4 cycles. This might be the link you were talking about, from December 2012: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf Roughly 00z > 12z > 18z > 06z, with small but significant differences between them. But the difference is much smaller than between say the Euro and the GFS. And the gap has been closing (it was much worse before 2007). On average 6z was initialized with about 10% less conventional data than the other cycles. The interesting conclusion was that if you're looking at a fixed point in time (say noon on Monday), then the 6z will do better than the previous 00z on average if you're within about 3 days. Beyond that, the 6z isn't significantly more accurate than the previous 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hugging the euro since it is a better model and shows a nonevent for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Matt has there ever been an ice storm of .5" in March in our area?. maybe where you live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 maybe where you live... Any clue at dates? or is that just an educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Mostly frozen precip. on this run. Back to back cold runs of GFS . And the Euro was also a little more south. Starting to think, as Matt has already mentioned , that if the temps are close to what the last 2 runs of GFS depict, then we r looking @ major icing. 51 years in Rockville. Never have seen major ice storm in March. We'll see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro, ensemble trends and now new GFS are in better agreement with the whole Canada situation. The long duration British Columbia low has become favored solution. Combined with NAO regions, the idea of less snow and more ice is gaining support. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It would be really fun to see an ice storm with temps that low but as others have said this would be highly anomalous. I'm not expecting that to happen at this point. If we get some model consensus than we have to take it seriously. Especially without the king on board it's hard to vote yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If I had to make a forecast I would say some ice or sleet overnight on Sunday with not many problems on the roads that melts off during the day monday and changes to snow at the end with light accumulations. Stepping away from models and looking at climo, I think that's a very fair forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Any clue at dates? or is that just an educated guess. I'm not that familiar with NW suburban Baltimore climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro, ensemble trends and now new GFS are in better agreement with the whole Canada situation. The long duration British Columbia low has become favored solution. Combined with NAO regions, the idea of less snow and more ice is gaining support. Meh If we are going to get an ice storm and lose out on 1' of snow it better be crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm not that familiar with NW suburban Baltimore climo Thanks. So DC has never seen one?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks. So DC has never seen one?. I'm sure we have...we have a period of record of ~150 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm sure we have...we have a period of record of ~150 years I have done a lot of looking and i cannot find any documentation of one online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 More like 50... its just north of RIC... its not like its horrific It really isn't that much difference this far out vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we had a ton of ice on March 13,1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So the skepticism is over the ice depiction, then? We are not so far into March that I find the idea that we might get an area-wide ice storm set-up as laughable as some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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