Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euroooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euroooo Next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not acceptable to people...they want immediate answers...god forbid we take 5-10 minutes to analyze the model and sort out our thoughts...we are here to jump when they say jump... What's it show for d10? Chop chop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GEM, EURO and GFS are all pretty similar with the track. The difference is in their respective precip shields. Great trends for us today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 These are a few of my favorite things from the Euro: -Heaviest slug of precip comes doesn't come in until the column has cooled -850s crash to -8 by the time the snow ends -Surface falls through the 20s during the snow A great run for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euroooo 11:58:34 left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not much zr or sleet. .20 northern tier by 1am monday but not much here. Changeover around 3am so just a glaze? Big slug is cold powder. Beautiful run. Thanks man, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh no absolutely not a black hole at all. We have come a long way in modeling for sure. I'm just saying that we are closing in a near-short term and as all the necessary players come to fruition the models will hopefully lock on to a narrower window versus differences in the pv, track of the low, cold air timing etc. i'll sum this up in one more post -- this narrower window has less to do with increased sampling over land and more to do with shorter time scales wrt to non-linear error growth within NWP models -- *some* US mets seem to think that forecasts get better in the near short-term because we've "sampled" things as they come ashore out west -- but in reality, it's because generally NWP models are just better on shorter time scales (duh) as errors (and their non-linear nature) have less time to grow and lead to forecast uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, I would say... As for the wave itself in the southern stream... UKMET is the outlier. It is much slower than GGEM, GFS and Euro. As for the situation in Canada, the Euro seems like a compromise of the models today...but that means it has a bit of a "GGEM touch" here. Watch for these things on the EPS later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like a fair dose of plain rain for wash/fred/carroll county. The front running stuff doesn't have temps at the surface or above for a while. then it looks like .25 of ice before a switch to snow up there. Since dc/balt misses the frontrunning for the most part we are mostly snow but lower qpf totals. Northern tier is 1.2-1.3 total qpf but .3-.4 of that is rain verbatim. DC is bullseyed with the cold slug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll be shocked if this doesn't mix with a bit of sleet, as most of the rest of this winter systems have already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 These are a few of my favorite things from the Euro: -Heaviest slug of precip comes doesn't come in until the column has cooled -850s crash to -8 by the time the snow ends -Surface falls through the 20s during the snow A great run for DC that's the hardest part to dissect, but I think most of the 0.20" to 0.40" that falls between 1am and 7am from SE to NW is snow...my guess is that slug comes in more toward the 3-4am range rather than 12-2am...I don't think based on this run that we see heavy rain to heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll be shocked if this doesn't mix with a bit of sleet, as most of the rest of this winter systems have already. Initially during the transition there may be some, but once the column crashes there is no warm layer...by 4-6am we are ripping fatties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Between 7am-1pm dc pics up .4-.5 qpf all cold snow. It could be 6" with higher ratios and coming down pretty hard for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Between 7am-1pm dc pics up .4-.5 qpf all cold snow. It could be 6" with higher ration and coming down pretty hard for a while. yes...and I'd guess 75% of what falls in the 1am - 7am panel is snow..so probably 1-2" already on ground by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Between 7am-1pm dc pics up .4-.5 qpf all cold snow. It could be 6" with higher ratios and coming down pretty hard for a while. any zr up this way? or simply rain to a little sleet to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yes...and I'd guess 75% of what falls in the 1am - 7am panel is snow..so probably 1-2" already on ground by 7am That 1am-7pm period is pretty tricky. IMO- i think you are right. There is a lull before the main slug moves in so the majority of the precip in that period would be snow and would come late like 4-7am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Easier to rile then a hornets nest But seriously thanks for your commentary and update Matt takes a lot of flack from weenies. The cryptic comment hit a nerve last night so I'm not sure why you would use it again... Remember that humor and sarcasm are not easily portrayed online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 any zr up this way? or simply rain to a little sleet to snow? Verbatim yes. Maybe .20 max or so in your area between 7pm-1am but temps are really marginal. Around 30* but regular rain has already fallen so I can't see it being much of an issue. Assuming the run is right of course. We're going to have a long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Verbatim yes. Maybe .20 max or so in your area between 7pm-1am but temps are really marginal. Around 30* but regular rain has already fallen so I can't see it being much of an issue. Assuming the run is right of course. We're going to have a long weekend. thanks, bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 wow, that 7am-1am period is awful pretty on the panels. Surface temps dropping to near 20 by 1pm with heavy snow. Man, I'm in on that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There is a lot to NWP for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do we think the ratio's could be...I see if we are around 20 degrees..that should be 15:1..thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do we think the ratio's could be...I see if we are around 20 degrees..that should be 15:1..thoughts? Ratios are more about temperatures in the snow-growth zone. I don't know what temps are aloft on the Euro, but on the GFS, temps throughout the column are quite cold, so I think 12-15:1 is possible if the GFS perfectly verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 that's the hardest part to dissect, but I think most of the 0.20" to 0.40" that falls between 1am and 7am from SE to NW is snow...my guess is that slug comes in more toward the 3-4am range rather than 12-2am...I don't think based on this run that we see heavy rain to heavy snow... Yeah, its tough to figure out from the Euro 6 hr panels and lack of thermal profiles. at 6z, 850s are 3C with the 0c line near FDK. By 12z, we're at -4 at 850 with the 0c line past EZF. 0.4ish fell by 12z with another .4-.5 falls afterwards. So out of the 0.4ish that fell by 12z based on where the 850 line went, we might lose 0.2 of that, conservatively? ETA: Late to the party...just saw Matt and Bob's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Matt takes a lot of flack from weenies. The cryptic comment hit a nerve last night so I'm not sure why you would use it again... Remember that humor and sarcasm are not easily portrayed online. Got it don't think anyone took it seriously. Lets let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 so we have the 12z gfs/gefs and 12z euro op totally on our side and we're inside of 72 now. GGEM is mostly there and the ukmet appears a little jacked up. 12z euro ens will likely look pretty much like the op imo. we're about at the point where ensembles lose their value. This is a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, its tough to figure out from the Euro 6 hr panels and lack of thermal profiles. at 6z, 850s are 3C with the 0c line near FDK. By 12z, we're at -4 at 850 with the 0c line past EZF. 0.4ish fell by 12z with another .4-.5 falls afterwards. So out of the 0.4ish that fell by 12z based on where the 850 line went, we might lose 0.2 of that, conservatively? On text output, EZF 850mb tem is 0 at 12z while the surface is -0.3 by 18z 850mb is at -5.7 and surface is at -5.4 and roughly .5 inches of QPF fall between 12 z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From the social media... Only leaving this up for a little while. (Save it) FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FYI Do you know which service this map is from? It is new and i have been seeing it the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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