ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Balloon soundings are very useful tools especially in determining upper level flow patterns amongst many other things. Satellites do their part but many other factors involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is colder and further south at 66 hours..not sure how it will affect the rest of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like it better at 54 hours,.won't comment beyond that... Fine... I'll go to NYC board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is going to be a better run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is going to be a better run for sure Sounds like it is better for everyone up and down the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is going to be a better run for sure Looks colder earlier at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 sorry to jump into your discussion but are you saying that the sampling out in the ocean is basically as good as the sampling on or near land now? thanks simply, we're obviously not at the point where we'll ever phase out radiosondes, as they are an important observational tool (so are sensors we have on aircraft during takeoff/landing) -- but we are significantly better at making observations from space and a good deal of the improvements in NWP have come from these observations and developing the tools to assimilate them . Lots more to sample including balloon launches and input into the models yes -- radiosondes are important but to assume that we have this "black hole" over the wave right now is just incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 very nice run!!..details in a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850's well south by 7am monday. look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 no one wants you to call them a dumbsh-t again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 New York forum says it looks good for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 quick update best guess for DC: 5-6"...done at 1pm...probably flip to snow around 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 simply, we're obviously not at the point where we'll ever phase out radiosondes, as they are an important observational tool (so are sensors we have on aircraft during takeoff/landing) -- but we are significantly better at making observations from space and a good deal of the improvements in NWP have come from these observations and developing the tools to assimilate them . yes -- radiosondes are important but to assume that we have this "black hole" over the wave right now is just incorrect ok.......thanks.......i just learned something new :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maps show 6-8" for all of DC metro...at 10:1 They might be a little generous for DC and SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh no absolutely not a black hole at all. We have come a long way in modeling for sure. I'm just saying that we are closing in a near-short term and as all the necessary players come to fruition the models will hopefully lock on to a narrower window versus differences in the pv, track of the low, cold air timing etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850's well south by 7am monday. look out. Bob, what's the non snow frozen look like on this run? I'm pretty sure we start out with rain/sleet/zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Any back end snow for Ric per Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like it better at 54 hours,.won't comment beyond that... There you go being cryptic again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850's well south by 7am monday. look out. yes... hr 72 0c line is basically a CHO to EZF line... just south of both cities... DCA/IAD -4 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bob, what's the non snow frozen look like on this run? I'm pretty sure we start out with rain/sleet/zr? not much zr or sleet. .20 northern tier by 1am monday but not much here. Changeover around 3am so just a glaze? Big slug is cold powder. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro looks a bit like the Canadian run from this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't have vorticity maps in yet but I would say the Euro appears to be in between the GGEM and GFS as far as the PV wave over Ontario-Quebec. The PV itself is also stronger and slower. This leads to the quicker ending on Monday and further south solution. We still have a couple of days where this "influence" could increase, leading to something more like the GGEM. Once I get the vortcity maps, I'll know how much of an outlier the GGEM really is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Believe it or not....dca is close to the big winner with snow on this run. Still sorting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 - Light rain Sunday afternoon/evening for everyone - Flip starts in the Far NW burbs around midnight and probably makes its way to far southeast burbs by 2-3am - I'd guess there is a brief mixy period, but more rain to snow than anything else...the mid levels and surface crash in unison - snow ends NW to SE from Noon to 2 - QPF around 1" for DC..slightly more western burbs..a little less up toward Baltimore/Westminster I'd guess a general 4-8" snowfall with the higher amounts out toward JYO and MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Matt has already posted that he prefers to watch the run come out and then post his organized thoughts, which in the end is more useful to all of us. Yea I know. Just keeping things light, cryptic comment produce 2 pages of pretty good commentary last night. Ill go back to lurking now.......carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Was hoping for a legit zr event. Guess we are on to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Believe it or not....dca is close to the big winner with snow on this run. Still sorting. not acceptable to people...they want immediate answers...god forbid we take 5-10 minutes to analyze the model and sort out our thoughts...we are here to jump when they say jump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not much zr or sleet. .20 northern tier by 1am monday but not much here. Changeover around 3am so just a glaze? Big slug is cold powder. Beautiful run. As much as we've complained over the last few years, we really have to love how the trends this year have favored us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 - Light rain Sunday afternoon/evening for everyone - Flip starts in the Far NW burbs around midnight and probably makes its way to far southeast burbs by 2-3am - I'd guess there is a brief mixy period, but more rain to snow than anything else...the mid levels and surface crash in unison - snow ends NW to SE from Noon to 2 - QPF around 1" for DC..slightly more western burbs..a little less up toward Baltimore/Westminster thanks, matt for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 - Light rain Sunday afternoon/evening for everyone - Flip starts in the Far NW burbs around midnight and probably makes its way to far southeast burbs by 2-3am - I'd guess there is a brief mixy period, but more rain to snow than anything else...the mid levels and surface crash in unison - snow ends NW to SE from Noon to 2 - QPF around 1" for DC..slightly more western burbs..a little less up toward Baltimore/Westminster From what I'm seeing it's a pretty uniform 6-8 most everywhere. northern tier would get a bit more ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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