Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? When you have days of good runs under your belt and then have a major model pull the rug all of a sudden it's either a blip or warning shot. We would act no differently here. Moving from medium to short leads is famous for dropping the weenie hopes and dreams hammer. We have plenty of first hand experience. I'm as confident with the gfs solution as I was with yesterday's 12z euro. Until there is strong agreement with the larger scale features you can't bank on any solution. I do like that the gfs made a move early in the run. That's usually a good sign but definitely not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was mostly asking if anyone here thinks the GFS was a fluke, I should've said it differently lol... And I definitely know how they feel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was mostly asking if anyone here thinks the GFS was a fluke, I should've said it differently lol... It's a viable solution with limited support so far. We'll know if it was a fluke by the end of tonight's 0z suite. We're getting close to having a good handle on the general evolution and can start working on finer details (for better or for worse) this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am not exactly sure where the moisture train the UKIE is coming up with is going... it stretches all the way from the MA back SW into the GOM/Texas/LA area at 72... and its pretty heavy precip back down in LA/MS area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's a viable solution with limited support so far. We'll know if it was a fluke by the end of tonight's 0z suite. We're getting close to having a good handle on the general evolution and can start working on finer details (for better or for worse) this weekend. I will do what I do best for snow events.......watch it from a web cam from my computer where of course its not snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Westminster sounding for GFS 7am-1pm SUN: .034 rain 1pm-7pm SUN: .033 freezing rain 7pm-10pm SUN: .131 sleet 10pm-7pm MON: 1.005 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's awful hard to get mad at this cluster. GEFS definitely supports the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's a viable solution with limited support so far. We'll know if it was a fluke by the end of tonight's 0z suite. We're getting close to having a good handle on the general evolution and can start working on finer details (for better or for worse) this weekend. Thanks for the response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's awful hard to get mad at this cluster. GEFS definitely supports the op. 12zgefs2.28.JPG i'd say for the first cycle yet -- envelope has definitely tightened -- doesn't seal the deal but i was worried we'd still have a scattering of solutions in this set of ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, WSW's are up Garrett/Preston/Tucker Sun afternoon to Mon afternoon already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 i'd say for the first cycle yet -- envelope has definitely tightened -- doesn't seal the deal but i was worried we'd still have a scattering of solutions in this set of ensembles Definitely the best cluster by a mile. I half expected the members to hedge on the warmer solution of 6z. Either the gfs/gefs caught something really important with the 12z data ingest or it's playing an awful game with our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's awful hard to get mad at this cluster. GEFS definitely supports the op. 12zgefs2.28.JPG Wow. That is pretty incredible agreement. If anything the outlier is more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Definitely the best cluster by a mile. I half expected the members to hedge on the warmer solution of 6z. Either the gfs/gefs caught something really important with the 12z data ingest or it's playing an awful game with our minds. yup -- unfortunately there's no rule that states the eventual solution has to lie within the ensemble spread of any given cycle, regardless of how well they agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Between 48-72hr, watch the 500mb plots over Ontario-Quebec. The GGEM makes this wave into a very elongated / assertive wave that rapidly lifts "round 1" and then suppresses "round 2" ... more of a frontal look. The GFS is more consolidated / not as deep with this wave, but does have it. That seems to be the key difference here. The specifics of the storm itself are irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z guidance this evening should give a good picture as it samples the main energy moving onshore the west coast. Better sampling, hopefully track forecast will narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yup -- unfortunately there's no rule that states the eventual solution has to lie within the ensemble spread of any given cycle, regardless of how well they agree no doubt. I've made grave errors in the past being overconfident with both the gefs and euro ens. Especially at the closer ranges. The members should resemble the op pretty closely at this lead....and if the next op run goes to hell...there goes the ensembles...and my hopes and dreams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z guidance this evening should give a good picture as it samples the main energy moving onshore the west coast. Better sampling, hopefully track forecast will narrow. I'm not sure this is really going to help (can't hurt). It is all about the delicate play between 2 PVs across Canada and their respective lobes. This determines the amount of influence Quebec will have on our storm. It is that "simple." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol. I'm not totally lock and load on the cold just yet. I've seen arctic fronts behave erratically a bunch of times and I've busted forecasts myself. I just hope the track is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not sure this is really going to help (can't hurt). It is all about the delicate play between 2 PVs across Canada and their respective lobes. This determines the amount of influence Quebec will have on our storm. It is that "simple." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is out to 36...I am shocked we haven't seen 10 of these posts yet - Where is the PBP? - Is anyone around? - What is the Euro showing? - NYC forum says it is worse for us - Does it give us snow - Looks like there is a 1008 low over Santa Fe at 24 hours - Does it look like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z guidance this evening should give a good picture as it samples the main energy moving onshore the west coast. Better sampling, hopefully track forecast will narrow. the main energy is already being "sampled" extensively by several satellite based sensors, so i wouldn't expect any differences due to sampling -- the importance of ground-based sampling of waves is really a legacy argument made by mets not familiar with and/or uncomfortable with our current satellite capabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GGEM so far is an outlier but we'll wait and see how the Euro looks. Notice UKMET/GFS are faster with this lobe in Ontario-Quebec while the GGEM is slower/stronger/more assertive with it. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmc72.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f72.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKMET_12z/f72.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is out to 36...I am shocked we haven't seen 10 of these posts yet - Where is the PBP? - Is anyone around? - What is the Euro showing? - NYC forum says it is worse for us - Does it give us snow - Looks like there is a 1008 low over Santa Fe at 24 hours - Does it look like the GFS School hasn't let out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Euro is out to 36...I am shocked we haven't seen 10 of these posts yet - Where is the PBP? - Is anyone around? - What is the Euro showing? - NYC forum says it is worse for us - Does it give us snow - Looks like there is a 1008 low over Santa Fe at 24 hours - Does it look like the GFS no one wants you to call them a dumbsh-t again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure what you mean here Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure what you mean here Chris. this idea that we need "to wait until a wave is sampled by radiosondes" is an outdated argument -- waves over the ocean (or land) are heavily sampled by microwave sounders, infrared sounders, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like it better at 54 hours,.won't comment beyond that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 this idea that we need "to wait until a wave is sampled by radiosondes" is an outdated argument -- waves over the ocean (or land) are heavily sampled by microwave sounders, infrared sounders, etc... sorry to jump into your discussion but are you saying that the sampling out in the ocean is basically as good as the sampling on or near land now? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lots more to sample including balloon launches and input into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.