WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd still shade MOS 75/25 at least. The op run is flopping around like crazy. -6 for the coldest low at DCA next week on the 00z run (which is absurd) to +8 on the 06z. Yeah, that's probably a reasonable split. But if we get a clear, calm night with fresh snowpack and an arctic airmass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, that's probably a reasonable split. But if we get a clear, calm night with fresh snowpack and an arctic airmass... IAD will radiate and cold pool, DCA will swamp river, and we'll have a 15 degree difference between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GGEM is about ~3" of snow for DC...we flip ~5:30-6..pick up about 1" of snow by 7am...then another 2" or so before it wraps up around noon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I have notice that no one has posted the UKMET on this storm... is there a reason why? Because 850 and QPF stop at 72... and you can't really tell anything besides SLP placement on meteocentre after... so there really is no point in mentioning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GGEM is about ~3" of snow for DC...we flip ~5:30-6..pick up about 1" of snow...then another 2" or so before it wraps up around noon... Yeah, thats the way I saw it on the collaberation precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GGEM is about ~3" of snow for DC...we flip ~5:30-6..pick up about 1" of snow by 7am...then another 2" or so before it wraps up around noon... what? Has storm ending at noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GGEM is about ~3" of snow for DC...we flip ~5:30-6..pick up about 1" of snow by 7am...then another 2" or so before it wraps up around noon... RaleighWx maps FWIW have like half inch of sleet to 3-4" of snow on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 what? Has storm ending at noon? it's the GGEM..lol....Gives NW of Richmond like 3"+...a little like the GFS....but even moreso focuses a lot of energy toward central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's the GGEM..lol....Gives NW of Richmond like 3"+...a little like the GFS....but even moreso focuses a lot of energy toward central VA GGEM has a monster brewing in the Gulf at 150...not sure where it's headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the Euro's wheelhouse...no reason to take the .235 hitters too seriously when we have a guy with a 1.14 OPS coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the Euro's wheelhouse...no reason to take the .235 hitters too seriously when we have a guy with a 1.14 OPS coming up... True dat...but look at the GGEM...156 hours, lol Verbatim, it's a rainer....but close.... fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I have not looked as much at this in previous GFS cycles (other than the PV)...at least not the jet features you're talking about...but is this a significant change in the GFS's "look", or has it been wavering back and forth on that? I do recall the other day the GFS had a cycle that gave us a similar scenario, ice/sleet to a snowstorm, but that was in two waves. Those plots would be gone by now (at least on NCEP's site), so don't recall exactly what the PV or jet structure was doing in that case. I'd suspect kind of similar, except instead of two waves it's now more consolidated as you say. The quick and dirty is this: 1. Older/colder solutions didn't have the British Columbia PV sitting there. This ended up incorrect and then models adjusted warmer. 2. Then, the warmest solutions had a more elongated Quebec low that kept confluence less assertive and jet streak weaker. This led to a strung-out, long duration precipitation. This is looking less correct. 3. Now, the Quebec low has trended more consolidated/more assertive, quickly pushing cold air at all levels SE. This tightens gradients, increases jet streak, cold air advection and heavier precip. But this also ends things quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, 72 hr UKIE has 850 0c line just south of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the Euro's wheelhouse...no reason to take the .235 hitters too seriously when we have a guy with a 1.14 OPS coming up... Yeah, but we need the .235 hitters to walk or get on base by scratching out a couple of hits...and then hopefully have the Euro slam one into the upper deck for a grand slam! (Funny, baseball analogy talk for a winter event, the irony isn't lost!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the Euro's wheelhouse...no reason to take the .235 hitters too seriously when we have a guy with a 1.14 OPS coming up... Ryan Howard 2013 or Ryan Howard 5 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The quick and dirty is this: 1. Older/colder solutions didn't have the British Columbia PV sitting there. This ended up incorrect and then models adjusted warmer. 2. Then, the warmest solutions had a more elongated Quebec low that kept confluence less assertive and jet streak weaker. This led to a strung-out, long duration precipitation. This is looking less correct. 3. Now, the Quebec low has trended more consolidated/more assertive, quickly pushing cold air at all levels SE. This tightens gradients, increases jet streak, cold air advection and heavier precip. But this also ends things quicker. Thanks, appreciate the good summary/recap on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 There's a cold thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ryan Howard 2013 or Ryan Howard 5 years ago Ryan Howard Existed in 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS .93 all snow at MRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wish the UKIE would go out a bit farther... but with all that moisture in the TN Valley... I will assume that it will look somewhat like the GFS since the 850 0c line is crossing through at 12z MON... does anyone else have UKIE info that they see besides what is on meteocentre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GEFS mean has DCA at ~+1 850s at 72 (12z MON) and at 78 (18z MON) DCA is -3 850. Hr 78 is the best QPF map on the GEFS (0.25+ QPF area-wide) and that looks like it would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks, appreciate the good summary/recap on that! No problem. Trying to isolate true signals from noise is difficult with multivariables. Then, you have to try to anticipate future changes, being that we are still a few days out. Could the Quebec assertive PV continue to trend stronger? Could the Pacific wave continue to trend stronger? Very difficult stuff, as usual, and all relies on what occurs up in Canada, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? Why should we care what they think? This is the MA forum... not the NYC forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? Why should we care what they think? This is the MA forum... not the NYC forum... Well, it gives them less QPF than previous runs, so it's more like they *hope* it's a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are in the Euro's wheelhouse...no reason to take the .235 hitters too seriously when we have a guy with a 1.14 OPS coming up... That 1.14 ops only means a little more than a single per plate appearance. It doesn't mean he's going yard every time. LOL People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? Why? It screw them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts? aren't there any mets giving answers like HM is for here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People over on the NYC sub-forum are thinking that the 12z GFS was a fluke. Thoughts?Weenies will be weenies. Though the GFS is pretty terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM is really suppressed...no wonder NYC weenies are in a panic. Dosent Matter....once the Euro comes...we can ignore every single model run that has occured this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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