stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It is warmer... and we will have to see the 18z and 0z to see if it a trend. It's still cold, with a wedge sig locked in. It's still pretty much the same as 6z wrt to DC.....frozen, but not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What are we looking for here? a snow event? not happening. Sleet and Freezing rain? I love ice events so Id be interested but alot of people meh them. I am more interested in the later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like between 108-111 we go over to some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's still cold, with a wedge sig locked in. It's still pretty much the same as 6z wrt to DC.....frozen, but not snow. This is going to suck when Philly and NY get 1' and we get a mixed bag of WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 boy, this is reminding me of a few 93/94 events, which is not a good feeling in the gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Over-reliance on models is not usually the best forecasting method, but without models, you would have no idea what is slated to happen in 4 days. You would have the same level of forecasting skill as someone in 1843. LOL! Great line! Great response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is below freezing at the surface throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the envelope is well defined. I really only care much about how much can fall as snow on the tail. I haven't looked at the 12z gfs super close but it looks like 1-2 snow on the end. Maybe more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 boy, this is reminding me of a few 93/94 events, which is not a good feeling in the gut Can you please elaborate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event. I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is going to suck when Philly and NY get 1' and we get a mixed bag of WTF. That's probably going to be our fate. Nothing sucks worse than a March ice storm....which is basically rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event. I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold I have no doubt it's too cold. But then again, the NAM usually does the cold hat trick vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What are we looking for here? a snow event? not happening. Sleet and Freezing rain? I love ice events so Id be interested but alot of people meh them. I am more interested in the later next week the surface temps the GFS is depicting are astronomical...even if they are 3+ degrees too cold, it is a major icing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I hope we get 1" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If I had to make a forecast I would say some ice or sleet overnight on Sunday with not many problems on the roads that melts off during the day monday and changes to snow at the end with light accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's probably going to be our fate. Nothing sucks worse than a March ice storm....which is basically rain for us. Oh well we choose to live here, i just want to see 2-4" on the tail end and i will be happy as a pig in s**t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the envelope is well defined. I really only care much about how much can fall as snow on the tail. I haven't looked at the 12z gfs super close but it looks like 1-2 snow on the end. Maybe more nw Hr 108 is sleet I believe... 850 is +1 and 800 is +0.8... other others are below freezing.... so I gather changeover to snow would be soon after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have no doubt it's too cold. But then again, the NAM usually does the cold hat trick vs GFS. yeah, but 18-23 gives us a huge margin of error...of course the gradient is super sharp...whoever is in the cold sector is going to get crippled (if the depiction is close to right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I hope we get 1" of ice Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I hope we get 1" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If I had to make a forecast I would say some ice or sleet overnight on Sunday with not many problems on the roads that melts off during the day monday and changes to snow at the end with light accumulations. Thanks Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You guys need to ditch the models and go back to looking at what is trending around us in all directions. None of the models were predicting any snow at all for this week's Tuesday - Wednesday storm and they all got it wrong until it was right on top of us. You need to look at temps in regions other than ours in relation to to when the storm is arriving, jet stream, water vapor movement, atlantic sub tropical movement (weather patterns). Anyone can look at a model and report what is says. That would be fine if the models were right all of the time - but they aren't!!!! My Dad used to joke that the weatherman doesn't have a window in his office. No prediction is ever going to be 100% accurate but relying on models 100% of the time is setting up for an epic fail! The storm is still way out but using the factors I normally look at that are happening out west, with the gulf stream, knowing what I know about the current airmass in our area, local ground and bay temperatures, cold air funneling I am predicting at least 4 inches of snow for Anne Arundel County for the Sun-Mon storm. I am sure a lot of you will laugh kind of like you did when I was the only guy calling for any snow Tues-Wed but I like my track record vs the models this year! This past Tues/Wed? What are you talking about? It was always in the cards for a coating to an inch storm which is what most people got..maybe 2 in spots...You will not get 4"...theres a chance this could be a significant wintry storm but that would be because of ice, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yeah, but 18-23 gives us a huge margin of error...of course the gradient is super sharp...whoever is in the cold sector is going to get crippled (if the depiction is close to right) Damn, I didn't think it was THAT cold. lol at the warm pronouncments earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I hope we get 1" of ice That is one sexy met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is below freezing at the surface throughout the event. on panel 96 on the 12z is compared to the panel 102 on the 6z... the freezing line is 100 miles or so north. Is it a trend to the Euro... we do not know yet... we need more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Have we ever had an ice storm with temps that cold in late feb/early march? Just wondering if there is any precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the surface temps the GFS is depicting are astronomical...even if they are 3+ degrees too cold, it is a major icing event Lower 20s at surface is kind of surprising for ice storm... but looks intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 yeah, but 18-23 gives us a huge margin of error...of course the gradient is super sharp...whoever is in the cold sector is going to get crippled (if the depiction is close to right) yea..i dont care if its july. If its 18-23...its going to be a major ice situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks Ian.I haven't seen the run but the GFS sucks so until the euro shows us getting crippled I'm going to assume it's not happening. The GFS also showed us getting a high of like 15 next Wednesday yesterday which would be the coldest high on record in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 maybe <1" of snow at the end for DC...I am more interested in the absolutely ludicrous temps that the GFS is showing during the event. I don't really believe in ice in March, but if those temps can even come close to verifying it will be a major ice event even in the city...of course they are probably too cold The GFS is giving people false hope with that wedge. No chance it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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