high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM BUFR data for DCA: 2-m T 1-hr PCP 724050 140302/2000 16.70 0.00 724050 140302/2100 16.00 0.00 724050 140302/2200 15.60 0.00 724050 140302/2300 15.10 0.00 724050 140303/0000 15.10 0.00 724050 140303/0100 14.30 0.00 724050 140303/0200 11.80 0.01 724050 140303/0300 9.10 0.00 724050 140303/0400 6.80 0.00 724050 140303/0500 4.80 0.00 724050 140303/0600 3.10 0.00 724050 140303/0700 1.70 0.00 724050 140303/0800 1.00 0.00 724050 140303/0900 -0.20 0.04 724050 140303/1000 -0.40 0.03 724050 140303/1100 -0.30 0.02 724050 140303/1200 -1.00 0.02 724050 140303/1300 -2.60 0.09 724050 140303/1400 -4.20 0.14 724050 140303/1500 -5.10 0.13 724050 140303/1600 -5.20 0.03 724050 140303/1700 -5.50 0.01 724050 140303/1800 -5.50 0.01 724050 140303/1900 -4.70 0.00 It's not as fast with the cold air (previous runs had 20's arriving quickly early Monday), but it's still dropping well down into the 20's as the heavier sleet arrives by 13z Monday. also says 62 Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 oh no!....If I can't do well, I sure as heck hope you can, buddy! Me too. It's been a rough winter up there with the lack of snow and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks pretty sleety at jyo...warm layer is at 750-800-850 at 72 hours but crashes hard...I'm guessing the nam shows an inch or two of sleet and another inch of snow for jyo DTs first guess map shows 8-14" of snow 40n This run makes Ji happy Looks pretty sleety at jyo...warm layer is at 750-800-850 at 72 hours but crashes hard...I'm guessing the nam shows an inch or two of sleet and another inch of snow for jyo DTs first guess map shows 8-14" of snow 40n This run makes Ji happy Lol...i want us to hit 40 inches for the winter dude so no...not happy. My mental state says i can survive missing a snowstorm 6 inches and under. A storm like the euro showed at 12z yesterday would of literally killed me i think to miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't think the writing is on the wall as a non event. We're still wobbling. And yes, 6z was a bad step but the euro last night and ensembles are fine. If it craps the bed in a few hours then expectations can be adjusted. I know you didn't buy into 12z euro yesterday. Solutions that are too good to be true usually are. Lol, the panic now is crazy. I'm going hang tough until I see something other than the NAM throw me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 next congrats man...you nailed the non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol, the panic now is crazy. I'm going hang tough until I see something other than the NAM throw me off. the same NAM that nobody believed at 6z is now completely accurate 6 hours later? Its not even within its wheelhouse yet(10 minutes before storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 congrats man...you nailed the non event Not sure that's what I was going for but if that's what you thought then good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the same NAM that nobody believed at 6z is now completely accurate 6 hours later? Its not even within its wheelhouse yet(10 minutes before storm) I'm not sure anybody "believed" the NAM at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol...i want us to hit 40 inches for the winter dude so no...not happy. My mental state says i can survive missing a snowstorm 6 inches and under. A storm like the euro showed at 12z yesterday would of literally killed me i think to miss We are at 41" so we are good I haven't updated from Tuesday and Wednesday yet...total of 1.5" I know how you feel...I still hope we get blasted though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm on the Bob Chill train here. This will be a fun event to track, if we can get a glaze and a little snow on top its a win for March 3. If we exceed that it's all gravy. I've never felt different since I tossed out my wag'cast a couple days ago. Of course yesterday's euro made me think there is upside but an all snow event seems so unlikely. I am considering the possibility of an evolution similar to the nam/ggem. It's plausible but hugging the euro & ens is the smartest play like 95% of the time. It's been the most reliable all year except for the Jan ns systems. I need 3" to crack 40 on the season. I will no doubt be including sleet if I get it. I think that there is a fair chance at booking that still. We'll see how today and tomorrow go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol, the panic now is crazy. I'm going hang tough until I see something other than the NAM throw me off. Its a bit silly. I wouldn't discount the NAM, but it is at the edge of its range. Key seems to be the sw rotating down around the west side of the PV. That is our cold air influx. I would think going forward the higher res models, and not so much the ensembles, would get a better handle on this feature. If the op runs of the GFS and Euro are cold, not sure I would worry too much if the ens are a bit warmer and north. Maybe I am completely wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 next So it's over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've never felt different since I tossed out my wag'cast a couple days ago. Of course yesterday's euro made me think there is upside but an all snow event seems so unlikely. I am considering the possibility of an evolution similar to the nam/ggem. It's plausible but hugging the euro & ens is the smartest play like 95% of the time. It's been the most reliable all year except for the Jan ns systems. I need 3" to crack 40 on the season. I will no doubt be including sleet if I get it. I think that there is a fair chance at booking that still. We'll see how today and tomorrow go. Definitely. I'm really interested to see how this arctic air plays out. This mornings low of 13 IMBY makes me think this arctic air still means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So it's over? naa.. not till the euro totally bails at least. so we're good for 2.5 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is a rain to fzr to sleet to snow for westminster. over 1" of qpf, lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I can't be seasoned l disappointed since I'm also happy with an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 naa.. not till the euro totally bails at least. so we're good for 2.5 hours or so. It will be over for those who were hoping to get 2+ inches of snow in DC metro. For those of us interested in tracking regardless of whether or not that is a probable outcome it will not be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is a rain to fzr to sleet to snow for westminster. over 1" of qpf, lots of sleet. Looking at soundings for mby, pretty bad ice storm. Lots of sleet/zr, followed by a couple inches of snow verbatim. I really dont want the ice..6 acres of woods. If its gonna be ice I will root for lighter qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM BUFR data for DCA: 2-m T 1-hr PCP 724050 140302/2000 16.70 0.00 724050 140302/2100 16.00 0.00 724050 140302/2200 15.60 0.00 724050 140302/2300 15.10 0.00 724050 140303/0000 15.10 0.00 724050 140303/0100 14.30 0.00 724050 140303/0200 11.80 0.01 724050 140303/0300 9.10 0.00 724050 140303/0400 6.80 0.00 724050 140303/0500 4.80 0.00 724050 140303/0600 3.10 0.00 724050 140303/0700 1.70 0.00 724050 140303/0800 1.00 0.00 724050 140303/0900 -0.20 0.04 724050 140303/1000 -0.40 0.03 724050 140303/1100 -0.30 0.02 724050 140303/1200 -1.00 0.02 724050 140303/1300 -2.60 0.09 724050 140303/1400 -4.20 0.14 724050 140303/1500 -5.10 0.13 724050 140303/1600 -5.20 0.03 724050 140303/1700 -5.50 0.01 724050 140303/1800 -5.50 0.01 724050 140303/1900 -4.70 0.00 It's not as fast with the cold air (previous runs had 20's arriving quickly early Monday), but it's still dropping well down into the 20's as the heavier sleet arrives by 13z Monday. also says 62 Sunday afternoon. That's because of the low ending up a state farther north than on the 06Z run which may be partly due to the differences in the model runs handling the initial wave. the 06Z run was much flatter and faster with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models are all doing the same thing at 850mb and low-level front, even though the raw temps/QPF are differing (as usual). Something to think about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 How about the 8th? Another tease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at soundings for mby, pretty bad ice storm. Lots of sleet/zr, followed by a couple inches of snow verbatim. I really dont want the ice..6 acres of woods. If its gonna be ice I will root for lighter qpf. I'm with you... looks like at least 1" qpf of sleet/frz (mainly sleet) for westminster, with maybe an inch or so of snow on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at soundings for mby, pretty bad ice storm. Lots of sleet/zr, followed by a couple inches of snow verbatim. I really dont want the ice..6 acres of woods. If its gonna be ice I will root for lighter qpf. Or sleet! That would avoid major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z gfs out to 54 -- going to be a southern adjustment to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z gfs out to 54 -- going to be an southern adjustment to the 6z run No doubt. You could see it early. This is very important for us fringers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z gfs out to 54 -- going to be a southern adjustment to the 6z run yup..looks markedly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No doubt. You could see it early. This is very important for us fringers. yup..looks markedly better lots to work out with this PV interaction -- its going to be a relatively narrow band of the best forcing -- the added bonus is that the best forcing is on the cold side of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yup..looks markedly better clicking the panels side by side with 6z is a very notable improvement. And it happens really early in the run. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 69 sleet sounding... snow is not far behind at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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