CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It won't be 60. I was just stating that if it did it wouldn't matter. Could get to the low 50's but guidance as a whole says 40's for most everyone I dont know where all the warm talk is coming from. I guess people are flipping out over the 6z GFS. Dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I dont know where all the warm talk is coming from. I guess people are flipping out over the 6z GFS. Dumb. I've heard the GFS ensembles also shifted way north... makes me very nervous even up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've heard the GFS ensembles also shifted way north... makes me very nervous even up in PA. Idk I haven't seen em. I will wait for the 12z run, and compare it to last nights 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 wow....the 6z GFS is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The DGEX will save you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I've heard the GFS ensembles also shifted way north... makes me very nervous even up in PA. oh no!....If I can't do well, I sure as heck hope you can, buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup... 06z GFS and 06z NAM were frozen respectively. 06z NAM was a snowstorm like the 00z GGEM it would appear. I believe everyone is hyping up the warmth too much. Yes, we will be warm on Sunday before the arctic air comes in. Yes, we might break 50 degrees. But this arctic hair will be coming in fast and hard... and even though we may start as a few hours of light rain, transition to frozen should be quick overnight Sunday into early Mon morning The 6z GFS was an absolute monstrosity for me and you....there is no sugarcoating it and it is the latest piece of global guidance we have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I want to give a warning here before the 12z data starts piling into the thread. Despite the raw mid-level temperatures and no matter which model, the 850mb circulation goes from WV to E PA. If not for the VVs, a lot of people would be warmer. Therefore, in between 3hr panels or at times of lighter precip, if your 850mb +/- 100mb are southerly, I'd expect mixing. I'm suggesting this even up here toward NYC area. So what might look like a warmer or cooler trend today with the "lines" might just be the model showing a time of better VVs or weaker VVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am riding the DGEX to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The DGEX will save you: The 6z NAM was bliss, so not surprising. People who are prone to bipolar better hold on, because there is going to be some small wobbles(with big sensible weather impacts) in the model cycles probably through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 well there goes the NAM as the "snowy" model -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at 60 panel on the NAM... it is going to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Big ice storm N VA and MD on 12z NAM through 72... HGR about to flip to snow HGR/MRB snow at 75... ice city DCA/IAD/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at 60 panel on the NAM... it is going to come north That is because it is coming out in pieces. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 another bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM basically an ice rink for DCA/IAD/BWI/EZF... ice to maybe 1-2" of snow MRB/HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 another bad run For mostly snow? Yes...but there's quite a bit of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Big ice storm N VA and MD on 12z NAM through 72... HGR about to flip to snow HGR/MRB snow at 75... ice city DCA/IAD/BWI Not a lot of snow after the change over. Maybe some decent ratios by then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It won't be 60. I was just stating that if it did it wouldn't matter. Could get to the low 50's but guidance as a whole says 40's for most everyone I wouldn't discount temps getting well into the 50's here Sunday like several NAM runs in a row have shown. We've gotten very warm ahead of some strong fronts in past weeks, and MOS isn't going to handle this type of very sharp boundary well. Maybe we do stay too cloudy or have some early drizzle which keeps us stuck in the 40's, but if the southerly flow gets going early and we're not socked in with low clouds, I don't rule out a very mild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM handled the PV way differently, would totally ignore it honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM handled the PV way differently, would totally ignore it honestly. You can't just ignore it dude...what if it's doing the right thing based on the latest data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM handled the PV way differently, would totally ignore it honestly. SOP around here for non-snow solutions. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM handled the PV way differently even switches over to ice in Philly, would totally ignore it honestly. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wouldn't discount temps getting well into the 50's here Sunday like several NAM runs in a row have shown. We've gotten very warm ahead of some strong fronts in past weeks, and MOS isn't going to handle this type of very sharp boundary well. Maybe we do stay too cloudy or have some early drizzle which keeps us stuck in the 40's, but if the southerly flow gets going early and we're not socked in with low clouds, I don't rule out a very mild day. I'm not discounting it. I should probably expect it. But even so it doesn't worry me much. I never expected this to be a snowstorm for us. Hasn't really been in the cards for us except for one euro/ens run but it was fleeting. I kinda expected that too. I've never been worried about roads too much either. I just want some sort of solid event. If we get a glaze followed by sleet and some snow I'll be happy. Things really don't get going precip wise until the wee hours on monday. If the boundary and cold feed makes it south like guidance says then we'll be below freezing before sunrise even with highs in the mid-upper 50's the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The writing is on the wall with this one for DC....warm, followed by some light rain, then maybe a period of non-accumuating "ice", ending as a brief period of sleet/snow...and dry...all the good precip to the north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My wife is feeling much better today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The writing is on the wall with this one for DC....warm, followed by some light rain, then maybe a period of non-accumuating "ice", ending as a brief period of sleet/snow...and dry...all the good precip to the north.... you are welcome to come up here for the sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks pretty sleety at jyo...warm layer is at 750-800-850 at 72 hours but crashes hard...I'm guessing the nam shows an inch or two of sleet and another inch of snow for jyo DTs first guess map shows 8-14" of snow 40n This run makes Ji happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not discounting it. I should probably expect it. But even so it doesn't worry me much. I never expected this to be a snowstorm for us. Hasn't really been in the cards for us except for one euro/ens run but it was fleeting. I kinda expected that too. I've never been worried about roads too much either. I just want some sort of solid event. If we get a glaze followed by sleet and some snow I'll be happy. Things really don't get going precip wise until the wee hours on monday. If the boundary and cold feed makes it south like guidance says then we'll be below freezing before sunrise even with highs in the mid-upper 50's the day before. I agree with all of this. I was just responding to the idea that it can't get very warm here Sunday. With this type of intense arctic boundary, I agree that it's not impossible to be well into the 50's Sunday afternoon and be into the 20's by 9Z the next morning. I also agree that how much frozen precip falls/sticks Monday won't be affected too much by how warm it gets Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The writing is on the wall with this one for DC....warm, followed by some light rain, then maybe a period of non-accumuating "ice", ending as a brief period of sleet/snow...and dry...all the good precip to the north.... I don't think the writing is on the wall as a non event. We're still wobbling. And yes, 6z was a bad step but the euro last night and ensembles are fine. If it craps the bed in a few hours then expectations can be adjusted. I know you didn't buy into 12z euro yesterday. Solutions that are too good to be true usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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