ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 These types of situations are climatologically unfavorable for big snows in the DC area. When you have to rely on a changeover or dynamics for cold air it is almost always a less than ideal situation. Not saying it can't happen but odds are against us given time of year, track of low and conditions leading up to the event...ie milder air. Models almost always paint the cold rushing in with a changeover quick then correct. These single digit temps on the backside will also warm with successive model runs. Not trying to be a party pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm interested to know how the EPS and the 6z GEFS look. Hopefully they'll be a tad south of the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A lot still up in the air, the reason the models are all over the place is the timing between the PV & shortwave in the west. The NAM/GGEM are a bit slower with the initial push of cold air, but slower/stronger with the shortwave out west. So you have a warm first part, but a cold and snowy second. GFS brings this out much faster (6z that is)....and is also faster with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Trajectory of the low coming across the area signals milder air coming in ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Trajectory of the low coming across the area signals milder air coming in ahead of it. I think some our area is going to torch on Sunday ahead of the front. However, a difference between this and our epic fail borderline events is that this time there actually is arctic air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 And for the record I don't think the EURO run is bad. If I could lock that run in now I would. 2-4 inches on March 3 followed by arctic temps would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The euro is not locking on to any scenario at this point. It's the shock model... Warm as a furnace to sig snowstorm, then it backs off... It's all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Areas along the mason Dixon line especially west of Harford county would make out pretty well with snow and or snow and some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Low confidence forecast overall. Big bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Low confidence forecast overall. Big bust potential Do you think it'll be warmer than progged? Do you think the warm air will win? Do you think the forecast will bust? What are your thoughts on the warm air and it being warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do you think it'll be warmer than progged? Do you think the warm air will win? Do you think the forecast will bust? What are your thoughts on the warm air and it being warm? Cranky headache from all those cabernet tannins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it will be warmer during Sunday then cold air will be slow to filter in Sunday night. Areas well north and west see a changeover but it takes longer toward DC. Toward Monday morning and by then how much of the qpf is around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WPC has a decent first crack at the probabilities for 4+ snow and 0.25+ ice http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 He is so obvious it's not even funny snymore Lol I stayed up for the euro. I'm definitely pulling for a sleet storm:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm interested to know how the EPS and the 6z GEFS look. Hopefully they'll be a tad south of the operational runs. eps was very similar to op. 6z gefs was a torch. North of the 6z gfs op. implied best snows along pa ny border. Just one run of the least accurate off hour gfs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you take the 6z NAM verbatim, it still wants to show that incredible drop from 60 degrees to 20 in 12 hours. It's a little tricky to read the weather type symbols, but it's light rain to sleet and then to moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 eps was very similar to op. 6z gefs was a torch. North of the 6z gfs op. implied best snows along pa ny border. Just one run of the least accurate off hour gfs though. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 eps was very similar to op. 6z gefs was a torch. North of the 6z gfs op. implied best snows along pa ny border. Just one run of the least accurate off hour gfs though. sweet! guess we get to re-hash this argument from yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Despite warnings from friends and loved ones, I have fallen for the 84 hr NAM. Unobtainable, flawed, but a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 sweet! guess we get to re-hash this argument from yesterday!ugh I must have missed something. I read a study done that verified that over a one year period the 6z gfs was the least accurate of the 4 runs but honestly I don't care enough to argue this so if that study was wrong fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS still .63 QPF at MRB. Same as 0Z run. But its less than an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Despite warnings from friends and loved ones, I have fallen for the 84 hr NAM. Unobtainable, flawed, but a thing of beauty. LOL. Heavy snow at -10 C. That would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ugh I must have missed something. I read a study done that verified that over a one year period the 6z gfs was the least accurate of the 4 runs but honestly I don't care enough to argue this so if that study was wrong fine it's cool -- there's been a longer (albeit, non-peer reviewed) internal analysis done at EMC which does show that while the 6z is the not as skillful (comparing average anomaly correlations) as the 0z/12z cycles the differences in correlation are very small and likely not statistically significant (delta-r < 0.005; no significance tests were presented which is usually an indication that the results would not benefit from their appearance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 hopefully latest SREFs are doing their usual unskillful self in the lr because I don't see a flake of snow for us (DCA/BWI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do you think it'll be warmer than progged? Do you think the warm air will win? Do you think the forecast will bust? What are your thoughts on the warm air and it being warm? I think the storm will bust as the warm air will win. I think it will be warm. Warm air wins in March. Too much warm air around. Forecast is a bust unless it predicts warm air. Were you talking about warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With this pattern, I assume this storm will be hard to predict until at least 24 hours in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ens mslp ticked a bit n-w from the previous prime run but the track supports frozen. 850 line at hr84 (7am Mon) runs just nw of the cities. Looks like its over Rockville for reference. By 96 its way south and plenty cold so it's obviously moving quick. 6 hr precip panel ending at hr90 is the juiciest of the bunch. About .25 on the means. All in all they support the op like PSU said. But most importantly they support a pretty nice frozen system overall. I don't understand all the warm talk in here. Best precip comes well after 1am Mon. . I personally don't give a crap about 60 on sunday. CAA is very efficient and powerful when it gets going. Not much has changed forecast wise imo. Period of zr late sun night followed by heavier precip that transitions to sleet and snow Monday. This thread is bad this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where is everyone coming up with a high of 60 in Sunday... My point and click has we at 41 for Sunday just north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ens mslp ticked a bit n-w from the previous prime run but the track supports frozen. 850 line at hr84 (7am Mon) runs just nw of the cities. Looks like its over Rockville for reference. By 96 its way south and plenty cold so it's obviously moving quick. 6 hr precip panel ending at hr90 is the juiciest of the bunch. About .25 on the means. All in all they support the op like PSU said. But most importantly they support a pretty nice frozen system overall. I don't understand all the warm talk in here. Best precip comes well after 1am Mon. . I personally don't give a crap about 60 on sunday. CAA is very efficient and powerful when it gets going. Not much has changed forecast wise imo. Period of zr late sun night followed by heavier precip that transitions to sleet and snow Monday. This thread is bad this morning. Yup... 06z GFS and 06z NAM were frozen respectively. 06z NAM was a snowstorm like the 00z GGEM it would appear. I believe everyone is hyping up the warmth too much. Yes, we will be warm on Sunday before the arctic air comes in. Yes, we might break 50 degrees. But this arctic hair will be coming in fast and hard... and even though we may start as a few hours of light rain, transition to frozen should be quick overnight Sunday into early Mon morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where is everyone coming up with a high of 60 in Sunday... My point and click has we at 41 for Sunday just north of Baltimore It won't be 60. I was just stating that if it did it wouldn't matter. Could get to the low 50's but guidance as a whole says 40's for most everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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