HighStakes Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Frigid Tues. morning. Everyone from DC northward at or below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Feisty in here tonight. Feels like we just got Dr. No'd.it's a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Track of low is more north than 12z...hence drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is good event but letdown from 12z. We need another south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dca is .70. I'd say 2-3 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like good amount of plain rain to start in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 4-5 in leesburg it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dca is .70. I'd say 2-3 inches of snow that seems about right...maybe a little higher...the profiles are so tight, this won't be an easy one in terms of dissecting precip type... but the euro evolution is simple....one consolidated thump after a light rain/zr start....how the thump falls is TBD....but I imagine you would flip by 4-5am....and probably get 6-8"...based on this particular run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The storm is faster this run. Only 18 hour event compared to 24 plus at 12z. Not sure if the placement of the low has anything to do with it. For those interested the zero line crosses BWI at 12z Mon. Looks like .43 falls between then and 18z. Surface temps in upper 20's at 12z crashing to low 20's by 18z. Total qpf. for event is .83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The EURO favors snow in Garrett County, MD and then the Trenton-Yonkers axis. Central Mid-Atlantic gets good snow for 8 to 10 hours as was discussed above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its way out there but the NAM has the 5400 thickness line sagging south just as the good moisture moves into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its way out there but the NAM has the 5400 thickness line sagging south just as the good moisture moves into the area. Nam crushes us...don't know about the mid levels so it could be non snow, but it looks like snow at 84 with heavy stuff about to move in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 6z GFS is a legit ice storm. I'd take ZR over sleet any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam crushes us...don't know about the mid levels so it could be non snow, but it looks like snow at 84 with heavy stuff about to move in \UBER wet too... Has over an inch, even down here. VERY cold-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 6z GFS is a legit ice storm. I'd take ZR over sleet any day. Ends as snow too. Long frozen event again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It will sound incredibly dumb and repetitive but only when the storm happens will the temps be known. I'm just staying very cautious for any storm that has potential thermal profile issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM 2-m temps for DCA are fascinating for late Sunday into early Monday 00z: 56 03z: 38 06z: 31 09z: 27 12z: 22 56 to 22? That really doesnt look right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z gfs doesn't look very good for dc. Definitely a lot warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z gfs doesn't look very good for dc. Definitely a lot warmer. I like it more than 00z. All frozen, and ZR instead of sleet. I hate sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like it more than 00z. All frozen, and ZR instead of sleet. I hate sleet. sleet is a colder sounding and you're almost always closer to snow, so I'll take sleet over zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not quite sure what is up with the GFS. It's tracking the storm north of the ECMWF and the NAM (yeah, yeah, too long range for the NAM to be reliable yet...but I like the NAM track - major snow for us!). GEFS spaghetti models from NCEP look like the bulk of the ensemble runs are south of the GFS, with only a couple outliers that pull the mean north. Thinking the 0z ECMWF is probably a good system track based on all this, but maybe a little dry (it's been a bit dry the last several big storms we've had this winter, so I'm just assuming a continuation of that trend). Right now I am just ignoring the GGEM. It looks like it really doesn't know what to do with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 sleet is a colder sounding and you're almost always closer to snow, so I'll take sleet over zr Yeah I dont get why anyone would rather have zr than sleet. I guess to some, bent over and broken trees and no power is appealing, but probably only to those that work with chainsaws and for electric companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is going to be a tough storm for the forum - reactions are going to vary widely based on expectations. Perhaps people should baseline what they are hoping for. I am hoping for a majority or all frozen event - type of frozen doesn't concern me. Given the time of year, an interesting, almost all frozen long duration high impact event of some type is what I am hoping for. ETA: I am also going to mostly miss whatever we get. This is the stretch I am doing a long weekend in Burlington, VT with my better half. We are taking the train up and back. Will be trying to train back on Monday with the train due back in Balt around 9:00 pm. Not sure how that is going to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah I dont get why anyone would rather have zr than sleet. I guess to some, bent over and broken trees and no power is appealing, but probably only to those that work with chainsaws and for electric companies. Maybe he is thinking a light ZR coating (1/8" or less) which makes for beautiful trees. But that's not this storm. Way too much QPF for that. Sleet is much more likely than ZR with this system, and latest models have me leaning toward snow over sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not quite sure what is up with the GFS. It's tracking the storm north of the ECMWF and the NAM (yeah, yeah, too long range for the NAM to be reliable yet...but I like the NAM track - major snow for us!). GEFS spaghetti models from NCEP look like the bulk of the ensemble runs are south of the GFS, with only a couple outliers that pull the mean north. Thinking the 0z ECMWF is probably a good system track based on all this, but maybe a little dry (it's been a bit dry the last several big storms we've had this winter, so I'm just assuming a continuation of that trend). Right now I am just ignoring the GGEM. It looks like it really doesn't know what to do with this storm The NAM track would be ideal, but odds of it occurring are probably fairly low. One thing to remember, the NAO is positive so that supports the idea of a more northward track, plus seasonal trend. Need the PV to do its work and overwhelm the low and mid levels with cold, which per most guidance will occur eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm just going to skip ahead from the Monday storm for a few minutes. Has anyone looked at the temperatures Wednesday morning? Near zero or sub-zero F temperatures across most of our region! wunderground's wundermap models really show it well for ECMWF and GFS at around 12z on Wednesday. Brrr. This is March, not mid-January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wasn't the NAM one of the last "warm" holdouts? Fact it has switched to a cold solution is encouraging.... even if it is the NAM and beyond 48 hours. GFS and EURO seem to have the same general idea with a few differences ... now it is just figuring out temps and what type of frozen precipitation we get. Still time for models to throw wrenches into all of this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The trend with the latest runs is completely different from the 12z runs. GFS is mostly zr. About 3 hours of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Accreting ice in March is probably even rarer than accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 .64 zr at IAD = not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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