hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A couple days ago GFS had 1"+ ice with 30-35 mph wind gusts behind the storm. Maybe we get more zr if the storm ticks north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It freezing rained at 20 in 1994 but wont do much this time. You just need a thicker warm layer, which the models showed but have now backed up on. Surface temps can be 0 as long as there is a thick warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You know I haven't disagreed with a single thing you've said... If it's really 22 F midday Monday, it's going to be sleet, not ZR. That wasn't why I entered the discussion at all... yes...the whole conversation started when Yeoman assumed it was 30-31 degrees and didn't realize how cold the models were...that was the only source of disagreement....Our only purpose in correcting him was to alert him that the models were actually much colder than he realized...not suggesting that we were getting an ice storm or that the models were right or that ice accretion in the city is easy...I think everyone has agreed on every point which is why these debates are sometimes pointless....Instead of just saying he didnt realize how cold the model depiction was, he moved the goalposts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You know I haven't disagreed with a single thing you've said... If it's really 22 F midday Monday, it's going to be sleet, not ZR. That wasn't why I entered the discussion at all... I'm not disagreeing with you either. I'd probably be better off not committing to no big ice storm as I'll look like a boob if it happens which is still a possibility. If the models are right with the crashing cold air I'd just bet any zr is somewhat limited. On the flip side if they are too heavy with the crash we might end up pretty marginal. I want to see how tomorrow does even if it's not connected. If we end up like 32 or something tomorrow it might be a good sign we shouldn't totally but the big cold filtering in Monday. Tho maybe that's faulty reasoning and I expect tomorrow to perform more or less anyway even if DCA ekes out a 30 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168The rain bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The rain bomb Maybe but 1043 high in prior panel http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe but 1043 high in prior panel http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156 It's mostly snow...maybe the Canadians are onto something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe but 1043 high in prior panel http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156 Yeah its an interesting looking storm. I'm hugging the euro from here out so hopefully it gets colder. Still need a HECS to get DCA to 35" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yes...the whole conversation started when Yeoman assumed it was 30-31 degrees and didn't realize how cold the models were...that was the only source of disagreement....Our only purpose in correcting him was to alert him that the models were actually much colder than he realized...not suggesting that we were getting an ice storm or that the models were right or that ice accretion in the city is easy...I think everyone has agreed on every point which is why these debates are sometimes pointless....Instead of just saying he didnt realize how cold the model depiction was, he moved the goalposts... Believe it or not I can read a model after 15+ years of staring at them.. I don't believe it will be as cold as the models depict, and even if it's close it going to be tough in DC in March to get accretion.. Disagree if you'd like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Believe it or not I can read a model after 15+ years of staring at them.. I don't believe it will be as cold as the models depict, and even if it's close it going to be tough in DC in March to get accretion.. Disagree if you'd like.. agreed...you just didnt stare at them this time...no worries...it wasn't transparent to everybody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early march is still late February. This is not march 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early march is still late February. This is not march 17This year it's mid February but even then getting a daytime temp of 20 is tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hey man if I want a regurgitation of a model run I'll go to DT's facebook pageYoda says 1.23468" ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even DC proper can get snow this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They seem to like the Euro in the NY forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They seem to like the Euro in the NY forum Not necessarily a good thing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro pulling a GGEM? Hard to tell on the crappy 24hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 came down to earth a bit for DC....3-4"..more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro pulling a GGEM? Hard to tell on the crappy 24hr maps. Agreed.. 24 hrs maps blow.. temps appear to collapse at all levels pretty substantially throughout Monday. Could be another good run.. Matt is asleep I fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1.5 QPF all snow for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WxBell is so slow. I'm only to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 How did the ggem do on 2/13? I have zero recollection. If it verified better than the gfs then I'm huggin it like driftwood after a shipwreck I can't remember either. Euro/NAM led the way. I remember RGEM jumping around a bit..even had a whacky solution bringing the low into Baltimore ~36 hours from the storm. I thought GGEM caught on with the Euro early but wavered some after that but I may be wrong. I think Bob was joking. GFS had a bad storm on 2/13, so it wasn't hard to beat. GGEM locked onto the storm about a week in advance, and did well throughout. This looks about right to me: http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y475/dailey9108/1CF7CE7E-1B8A-428E-ABE0-043FA5771ACA_zpsxboamfix.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Agreed.. 24 hrs maps blow.. temps appear to collapse at all levels pretty substantially throughout Monday. Could be another good run.. Matt is asleep I fear overnight we flip from NW to SE, and then after around 7-8am we are all snow until around 1pm it is probably an 8-10 hour snow for the far NW burbs and a 5-6 hour snow for DC....precip type before the flip is hard...euro is in 6 hour increments.. and nobody has good thermal profiles....but euro is the simplest evolution...thump comes in hard around 2-4am....before that is just cloudy or some light rain, drizzle for us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wxbell snow maps cut in 1/2. 7.8 for jyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 overnight we flip from NW to SE, and then after around 7-8am we are all snow until around 1pm it is probably an 8-10 hour snow for the far NW burbs and a 5-6 hour snow for DC....precip type before the flip is hard...euro is in 6 hour increments.. and nobody has good thermal profiles....but euro is the simplest evolution...thump comes in hard around 2-4am....before that is just cloudy or some light rain, drizzle for us here Thanks, what do the snow totals look like?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1.5 QPF all snow for NYC? No. They're on the border of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems to shut the precip off about several hours faster than GFS. Basically nothing falls after 18z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 overnight we flip from NW to SE, and then after around 7-8am we are all snow until around 1pm it is probably an 8-10 hour snow for the far NW burbs and a 5-6 hour snow for DC....precip type before the flip is hard...euro is in 6 hour increments.. and nobody has good thermal profiles....but euro is the simplest evolution...thump comes in hard around 2-4am....before that is just cloudy or some light rain, drizzle for us here 0.4" falls from 7a on...so about 4" of snow. If I was a betting man without seeing more time increments/thermal profiles, I'd guess we start as drizzle here and switch over to sleet as heavier precip arrives before flipping to all snow in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This run seems more realistic than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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