CAPE Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at the GFS soundings for DC, its all snow by hr 96, maybe earlier although probably sleet still mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I haven't seen any ice accretion in DC all year, but if you have, congrats Who cares what you've seen or what I've seen? Do you not *read* this sub-forum during ZR events? Just a cursory glance has Ian reporting icy sidewalks in one event and tree glaze reports in other events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did DC get ice in the 1994 ice storm that coated most of the areas east of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good luck getting ZR with marginal temps in March in DCIt might be 60 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 22-24 isn't marginal Even lessons from this morning are forgotten. The raw temps are going to be too cold. I'll bet my first child on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It might be 60 on Sunday. Those warm to cold scenarios always work out in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 How did the ggem do on 2/13? I have zero recollection. If it verified better than the gfs then I'm huggin it like driftwood after a shipwreck I can't remember either. Euro/NAM led the way. I remember RGEM jumping around a bit..even had a whacky solution bringing the low into Baltimore ~36 hours from the storm. I thought GGEM caught on with the Euro early but wavered some after that but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did DC get ice in the 1994 ice storm that coated most of the areas east of DC? DC proper got a sleet storm if you're talking about the 2/10-11 event. In the rest of events, DC proper did accumulate at least a bit of ice except for the 1/3-4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even lessons from this morning are forgotten. The raw temps are going to be too cold. I'll bet my first child on that. Based on all guidance sub 30 seems like a good bet. Benches, cars, and trees must remain vigilant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even lessons from this morning are forgotten. The raw temps are going to be too cold. I'll bet my first child on that. Even if they are... adding 4 degrees makes it 26-28... still big ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 2/13 storm had the GGEM giving us a nice snow band, but I can't recall which run that was. It seemed to stabilize fairly well as we neared the event. The Rain/Snow line was a little closer than it turned out to be, but the QPFs were pretty good, maybe a little low in the end, but stronger than the GFS at least! Not as blow out as the NAM for that storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even lessons from this morning are forgotten. The raw temps are going to be too cold. I'll bet my first child on that. I know that model raw output is usually too cold but taking that into account, it'd be more like 25-27? That isn't marginal and would support ice accretion on the usual surfaces that see ice in MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It might be 60 on Sunday. You're right in that freezing rain would be a no-impact impact event after a 60-degree day. He's wrong in denying ice accrual in DC this winter so far. Why connect the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Based on all guidance sub 30 seems like a good bet. Benches, cars, and trees must remain vigilant I think it will be plenty cold based on what we've seen but still think a big ice storm is the least likely scenario form the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You're right in that freezing rain would be a no-impact impact event after a 60-degree day. He's wrong in denying ice accrual in DC this winter so far. Why connect the two? Why do you think I have any reason not to admit there has been ice accrual in DC this year? I live in the city.. do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it will be plenty cold based on what we've seen but still think a big ice storm is the least likely scenario form the event. What would be the most likely scenario to you then? Plain rain is doubtful right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it will be plenty cold based on what we've seen but still think a big ice storm is the least likely scenario form the event.[/quote 100% agree. We could easily get a quarter inch of ice but that is a no nevermind. We've already seen our biggest ice event in the region imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I know that model raw output is usually too cold but taking that into account, it'd be more like 25-27? That isn't marginal and would support ice accretion on the usual surfaces that see ice in MBY. It could happen tho even at 27 after a mild day and with the sun out we'd probably not have gigantic issues. I could be dismissing it all too much. I just think the colder sfc solutions would end up verifying more sleety/snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A ZR scenario generally has the warm air overrunning entrenched surface cold in a CAD setup. Monday's storm isn't doing that - it is a cold front pushing across our area bringing cold air, where the surface is cooling faster than the mid-layers. To my layman view that says more likely sleet than ZR so long as the mid-layers stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It could happen tho even at 27 after a mild day and with the sun out we'd probably not have gigantic issues. I could be dismissing it all too much. I just think the colder sfc solutions would end up verifying more sleety/snowy. Definitely agree with this. In DC proper, I have a hard time believing a significant ice storm is in the cards and would side with a sleet to snow solution as of now. I was just pointing out that if the mid levels support a FRZ rain profile, I could see ice accretion on the usual surfaces here, but nothing crippling, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I totally agree with this statement.... but why throw yourself in the ring with someone clearly trying to troll? Anti group think. 60 is probably a stretch anyway.. tho NAM MOS has DCA at 56 for now on Sunday. Yoeman's point is valid overall even if he is lose with facts about past ice storms. That kind of stuff gets a free pass the other way. It's just like yesterday when kurtstack was called out for making a climo based post... so much BS is thrown about on the other side of the aisle and no one ever says anything about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z GFS was another tick colder for Towson, according to TwisterData. Now very close to all snow throughout, with probably some mixing before hour 78. Precip now above an inch, according to MeteoPT. Try this one too http://meteopt.com/modelos/meteogramas/ That site is awesome. I'm not sure how accurate it is or what algorithm they use, but it's free point and click GFS meteograms. TwisterData seems to round off the location of their GFS soundings, so soundings for "Towson" are actually for a point about 9 miles NE of town. MeteoPT does not do this. Unfortunately TwisterData and MeteoPT give different numbers. According to MeteoPT it starts as all snow at (39.5, -76.5), then the 850 temp nudges just above freezing at 90h, then back to snow. TwisterData has the 850 temp at -1.9 C at the same time for the same location. I'm not sure which is more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Why do you think I have any reason not to admit there has been ice accrual in DC this year? I live in the city.. do you? As I said, who cares what you or I personally saw? There are obviously plenty of pictures out there in DC proper from the freezing rain events this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anti group think. 60 is probably a stretch anyway.. tho NAM MOS has DCA at 56 for now on Sunday. Yoeman's point is valid overall even if he is lose with facts about past ice storms. That kind of stuff gets a free pass the other way. It's just like yesterday when kurtstack was called out for making a climo based post... so much BS is thrown about on the other side of the aisle and no one ever says anything about that. That is why we have you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Definitely agree with this. In DC proper, I have a hard time believing a significant ice storm is in the cards and would side with a sleet to snow solution as of now. I was just pointing out that if the mid levels support a FRZ rain profile, I could see ice accretion on the usual surfaces here, but nothing crippling, etc. Isn't the GFS pretty much the only model showing ice as a big threat? Ice storms are hard.. they are self defeating (tho this kind of setup is a good one perhaps with the prolonged lighter rates if that happened), they are usually reliant on antecedent conditions, etc. There's a reason they tend to focus in midwinter. They definitely can happen on the edges.. and this could be one with an initially shallow cold air mass on the leading edge. We might get some ice.. I doubt it's all or mostly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That is why we have you here. eh, I'm wrong plenty. But I do find multiple solutions interesting when a lot of people just root for snow. Honestly I'd rather it just start torching now as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As I said, who cares what you or I personally saw? There are obviously plenty of pictures out there in DC proper from the freezing rain events this season. We saw ice this year but it was our standard no impact ice unless you slipped and fell on your ass. Since I've been here I think there's been like 1 or 2 ice events that went into the moderate level but other than that they are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Isn't the GFS pretty much the only model showing ice as a big threat? Ice storms are hard.. they are self defeating (tho this kind of setup is a good one perhaps with the prolonged lighter rates if that happened), they are usually reliant on antecedent conditions, etc. There's a reason they tend to focus in midwinter. They definitely can happen on the edges.. and this could be one with an initially shallow cold air mass on the leading edge. We might get some ice.. I doubt it's all or mostly ice. Yeah, it was the only model showing mainly ice but its now transitioned into a sleet to snow look. The air mass, as modeled, looks to be pretty impressive but I'd hedge my bet on sleet/snow. Ice storms are so tricky here....latent heat release where we never seem to get light precip over a long duration with ideal temps, UHI & concrete jungle, etc. When I first moved here, I lived in Tysons Corner. I remember a pretty good ice event in February 2008 (I think?). It was the night of the primary. The news showed cars stuck on the mixing bowl overpasses due to the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We saw ice this year but it was our standard no impact ice unless you slipped and fell on your ass. Since I've been here I think there's been like 1 or 2 ice events that went into the moderate level but other than that they are all the same. You know I haven't disagreed with a single thing you've said... If it's really 22 F midday Monday, it's going to be sleet, not ZR. That wasn't why I entered the discussion at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It freezing rained at 20 in 1994 but wont do much this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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