weatherCCB Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There's no doubt the Euro a better model because of its higher resolution . But I've noticed that is best when it locks in and hold its solution . For example, 2/12 - 2/13. It was rock solid for days. GFS was useless. But on this storm it has jumped around with it solutions . GFS has been the most steadfast in its depiction . So I'm not sure what to believe. The next 2 days should be interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? No doubt that was true, but I think the GFS outperformed the EURO leading up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? I'm not. Honestly I'd love to see the 15" of snow it gives me in PA, but if the Euro isn't on board, then I can't count on another MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? If so, the GFS has a lot of company with the Euro which has been a big load of crap so many times this winter. 4 days ago the Euro was giving a significant snowstorm for much of the MA on Monday. The GFS was indicating rain. Now the Euro is warm. If you don't like the Euro, wait 24 hrs and it will usually change. Even Paul Kocin is recognizing curious inconsistencies with the Euro during recent months. Now, the latest Euro dreamstorm is late next week. That will probably vanish tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? Hug the one that gives you snow(or sleet) Seriously, the GFS seems like a viable solution, and this is a much different setup. Neither model has performed stellar overall this winter. GFS has done better than the Euro on some events.The hanging back of energy in western Canada may be the flaw in the Euro solution. If the Euro doesn't budge the next couple of runs, it will become more worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If so, the GFS has a lot of company with the Euro which has been a big load of crap so many times this winter. 4 days ago the Euro was giving a significant snowstorm for much of the MA on Monday. The GFS was indicating rain. Now the Euro is warm. If you don't like the Euro, wait 24 hrs and it will usually change. Even Paul Kocin is recognizing curious inconsistencies with the Euro during recent months. Now, the latest Euro dreamstorm is late next week. That will probably vanish tomorrow. while pointing out inconsistencies with the euro, you also pointed them out with the GFS. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know it is the 84 panel on the NAM... but it does not support the GFS at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I always thought the EURO was rock solid for Miller A scenarios (2-12/2-13 plus many other past year events). This is more of an overrunning event correct? I know the GFS has scored well on NS systems, but what is the GFS track record on this type of set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 ??? 0z run had some warmer members. Was just reading the AFD from Mount Holly as well....Here ya go if you are looking for an "expert" assessment- AS FAR AS THE MODELING IS GOING WITH THIS EVENT, THE OPERATION ECMWF REMAINS THE WARMEST, ALTHOUGH IT DID TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER FROM THE DAY RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY COLDER BY MONDAY EVENING. ITS DIFFERENCE FROM THE OTHER MODELS IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PV IN EASTERN CANADA (LESS OF A NEARBY SFC RIDGE) AND HANGING BACK MORE ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA. BOTH PERMIT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS AND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING HAS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT SUPPORT OF THIS WARMER SOLUTION. Are you looking at the 6z members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know it is the 84 panel on the NAM... but it does not support the GFS at the surface. NAM is a torch. Looks more like EURO. Not good. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The second thing he is said is a continually debunked myth. Lol. Me saying I am "meh" about a 6z or 18z run is not a myth. I didn't say they were useless or unreliable. To the contrary, I did say I look at them for continuity purposes on short leads. Sorry for the poor expression on my part, and your misinterpretation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 HM, Thanks for the link explaining the jet. I also agree with your feelings about this sub forum. Very enjoyable atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lol. Me saying I am "meh" about a 6z or 18z run is not a myth. I didn't say they were useless or unreliable. To the contrary, I did say I look at them for continuity purposes on short leads. Sorry for the poor expression on my part, and your misinterpretation Except I didnt misinterpret anything tho. Saying the 6z/18z runs are any different or less valuable is a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Most people see what they want to see, even if it defies logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Except I didnt misinterpret anything tho. Saying the 6z/18z runs are any different or less valuable is a myth. We went over this ad nasuem last year and i thought it was settled once DTK said it was total crap, but i guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The GFS was a big load of crap for the 2/12-13 storm. Are folks now buying it? Only when it actually shows a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM is a torch. Looks more like EURO. Not good. MDstorm Yeah. We are 0-1 bottom of the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Except I didnt misinterpret anything tho. Saying the 6z/18z runs are any different or less valuable is a myth. Not going to beat the dead horse here. I think its understood that statistically there is no difference. But anecdotally, there are those that dont give the 6z and 18z runs the same weight. I was asked to provide evidence, based on how I "use" those models. That is not doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah. We are 0-1 bottom of the 7th. It does look Euro-ish. But, it is the NAM outside of 48 hours. 12z and 0z GFS and Euro runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 traditionally, these boundary overrunning events do not treat the MA well we could get lucky, but what the Euro/NAM are showing seem to be more in line with the way these things end up irrational weenie hope is all I have on this one working for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 While the 6z/18z thing may be a myth they do tend to show wonky solutions around here it seems. Regardless one run isn't a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 While the 6z/18z thing may be a myth they do tend to show wonky solutions around here it seems. Regardless one run isn't a trend. Looks like it may be 2 now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This isn't a no-brainer set-up. I don't expect the models will lock in 4-5 days out. As we are on the periphery of precip types, we can expect shifts that we wouldn't otherwise notice in some other events. We don't always notice, but New England is subject to major model shifts inside 48-72 hours on almost every event. When we are on the periphery of an air mass and a precipitation complex, confidence in precise model solutions is lower than normal. Our region gives way more deference to models at this range, than any other region. By a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You guys need to ditch the models and go back to looking at what is trending around us in all directions. None of the models were predicting any snow at all for this week's Tuesday - Wednesday storm and they all got it wrong until it was right on top of us. You need to look at temps in regions other than ours in relation to to when the storm is arriving, jet stream, water vapor movement, atlantic sub tropical movement (weather patterns). Anyone can look at a model and report what is says. That would be fine if the models were right all of the time - but they aren't!!!! My Dad used to joke that the weatherman doesn't have a window in his office. No prediction is ever going to be 100% accurate but relying on models 100% of the time is setting up for an epic fail! The storm is still way out but using the factors I normally look at that are happening out west, with the gulf stream, knowing what I know about the current airmass in our area, local ground and bay temperatures, cold air funneling I am predicting at least 4 inches of snow for Anne Arundel County for the Sun-Mon storm. I am sure a lot of you will laugh kind of like you did when I was the only guy calling for any snow Tues-Wed but I like my track record vs the models this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You guys need to ditch the models and go back to looking at what is trending around us in all directions. None of the models were predicting any snow at all for this week's Tuesday - Wednesday storm and they all got it wrong until it was right on top of us. You need to look at temps in regions other than ours in relation to to when the storm is arriving, jet stream, water vapor movement, atlantic sub tropical movement (weather patterns). Anyone can look at a model and report what is says. That would be fine if the models were right all of the time - but they aren't!!!! My Dad used to joke that the weatherman doesn't have a window in his office. No prediction is ever going to be 100% accurate but relying on models 100% of the time is setting up for an epic fail! The storm is still way out but using the factors I normally look at that are happening out west, with the gulf stream, knowing what I know about the current airmass in our area, local ground and bay temperatures, cold air funneling I am predicting at least 4 inches of snow for Anne Arundel County for the Sun-Mon storm. I am sure a lot of you will laugh kind of like you did when I was the only guy calling for any snow Tues-Wed but I like my track record vs the models this year! Over-reliance on models is not usually the best forecasting method, but without models, you would have no idea what is slated to happen in 4 days. You would have the same level of forecasting skill as someone in 1843. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Panel 75 way warmer at the surface compare to the 81 on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol attml .. Ride that verified wishcast till you fall of the horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Out to 96...GFS still cold at the sfc...freezing line is 50 miles south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Panel 75 way warmer at the surface compare to the 81 on 6z. It's still cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's still cold It is warmer... and we will have to see the 18z and 0z to see if it a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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