yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 +2 at 800 and 850 levels 09z MON (4am MON)... everything else in the column is below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ok You know I'd love to be wrong-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS is basically a massive sleet storm... 800-850 are above zero... but everything else is below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS is basically a massive sleet storm... 800-850 are above zero... but everything else is below... Even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like a little after 90 hours we got over to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm confused by the title. I like the look of the NCEP ensembles. This far out, ensembles are better than the operational (in many but not all cases) and that'll change in a day or two when we get the tripartate rivalry of GFS vs. NAM vs. EURO and the supporting cast of Canadians, NOGAPS, Nigerian model, Korean, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS is basically a massive sleet storm... 800-850 are above zero... but everything else is below... The worst kind of winter storm possible. At least the Wiz and Caps won tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 eh...Let's hope the euro stays good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like DCA on verge to change to snow at 18z MON (1pm)... 750 to 850 all between 0 and +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That is such a tight SN to IP/ZR along the PA border for most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM 2-m temps for DCA are fascinating for late Sunday into early Monday 00z: 56 03z: 38 06z: 31 09z: 27 12z: 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 eh...Let's hope the euro stays good GFS isn't terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 eh...Let's hope the euro stays goodHardly an eh run, surface is frigid. Sleet to a 2-4" snow around your way. Slowly getting colder in the ML on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM 2-m temps are fascinating for Sunday/Sunday night 00z: 56 03z: 38 06z: 31 09z: 27 12z: 22 is that 12z Sunday or Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS isn't terrible True... but its sleet city for DCA... prob some FRZ RN... then hours upon hours of sleet... to maybe 2-3 inches of snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hardly an eh run, surface is frigid. Sleet to a 2-4" snow around your way. Slowly getting colder in the ML on the gfs. Yup, not an "eh" run at all IMO. Pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hardly an eh run, surface is frigid. Sleet to a 2-4" snow around your way. Slowly getting colder in the ML on the gfs. Yeah, I'd gladly take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 is that 12z Sunday or Monday? 12z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 is that 12z Sunday or Monday? 12Z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup, not an "eh" run at all IMO. Pretty decentI like where DC sits at this point. Euro may come in a bit warmer in that it overcorrected on itseld but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS isn't terrible it's 2-3" snow I guess if we flip at 90 hours (questionable)...though we could stay mixy until it is pretty dried out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 is that 12z Sunday or Monday? sorry. That's Sunday evening to Monday morning. NAM has a bigger warmup ahead of the arctic front than the GFS, but it still ends up super cold by early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If this is the worst case scenario i will sign now. Not sure why Matt is saying eh, up here it is better but it is still a nice storm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Another cold run. We're biting nails no matter what. It's fine with me. It would be a glacial storm verbatim even though not pretty powder. I'm totally in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Something else I like about this run of the GFS. Trended a little wetter again. 0.8" vs 0.7" at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 True... but its sleet city for DCA... prob some FRZ RN... then hours upon hours of sleet... to maybe 2-3 inches of snow at the end or freezing rain...it's fine...It is a neat wintry solution....I'd prefer the euro's 6-8", but looks like we have a mess on its way which is great....plus it is the GFS and I don't have much faith in it leading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This run looks right since LWX doesn't mention any sleet in its forecast. (Yes, awesome Wiz game.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's 2-3" snow I guess if we flip at 90 hours (questionable)...though we could stay mixy until it is pretty dried out.... I'm on my phone so I don't feel like tediously picking it apart. Isn't this the best gfs run in the last 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nice and icy. Personally I don't care for sleet much, would prefer ZR or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 or freezing rain...it's fine...It is a neat wintry solution....I'd prefer the euro's 6-8", but looks like we have a mess on its way which is great....plus it is the GFS and I don't have much faith in it leading Could be freezing rain... but the WAA is only in the 800-850 level... so I assumed that it was sleet. I dont think GFS is leading the charge either... but is continuing the trend from 12z and 18z of crashing temps quickly through the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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