Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 more precip almost definitely means more frozen in this case...a colder solution is almost definitely going to be wetter than a warmer solution in this setup I agree. 18z gfs was a step wetter than 12z. Euro speaks for itself. Euro ens say the euro op was spot on with it's depiction overall but close in like this the ensembles are supposed to be pretty close to the op. I've said this several times this year but most if not all storms coming up from the south have trended wetter leading in. Not sure it can get much wetter than the euro but the gfs seems to have caught on with thermals first. Now the euro comes in pretty wet and the 18z gfs bumped too. There is really nothing to complain about today. It's been a great day. I've missed the euro the last 3 nights. I'm pretty sure I'm up tonight. For better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I usually only refer to the SREFs for trends in QPF, SLP, etc and something else in between the globals & NAM. SREFs are worlds apart from the GFS and Euro. Surface freezing line is still up in central PA at 12z Monday. I know SREFs generally are unreliable, especially towards the end of their run, but are they particularly bad with CAD situations? I would assume so since CAD is picked up better by the higher res models? don't sweat the srefs at this range. The skill of that ens suite is much lower at the end of it's run than the other globals. Once we are inside of 72 they gain some usefulness. Like the nam, I only look at the srefs seriously inside of 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 don't sweat the srefs at this range. The skill of that ens suite is much lower at the end of it's run than the other globals. Once we are inside of 72 they gain some usefulness. Like the nam, I only look at the srefs seriously inside of 48. Yeah, I'm not putting much stock in them for now, but just another thing to look at before the 0z suite begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cool image,,,,,,,, From Ryan Adam Maue @RyanMaue 16m Friday afternoon, visible satellite imagery will show eye-like structure e.g. a serpent coiled into center of cyclone pic.twitter.com/xcfgJz4BO5 Here she comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z NAM might end up like the GGEM, a warmer first part but a colder and snowy second. The PV was a bit slower to get in position but the shortwave in the southwest is slower & deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Mapgirl, where do you get the text qpf output? At this point Towson looks like mostly snow on the GFS, with possibly some mixing at the start. 18z 850 temps cooler than 12z, but not as cold 06z, when the whole column was well below freezing for the duration. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html You will need to navigate to the google map that has the station locations, I believe the one you'd want to look at is Martin Airport. From there you want Cobb output. That will give you a text output per model/run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM might look worse at first glance, but it will end up better (GGEM-ish), colder is slower but theres nice confluence setting up with a stronger shortwave coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It seems like in the past, when we have depended on Arctic air to come rushing in, the models have done this a lot faster than what ends up happening. Is this a real phenomena? Or just due to the fact that we normally bust high on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM might look worse at first glance, but it will end up better (GGEM-ish), colder is slower but theres nice confluence setting up with a stronger shortwave coming Dude it's the NAM beyond 60. I mean, I guess it's fine to look at...but I wouldn't put much stock into it until 12z Saturday at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM doing exactly what I mentioned earlier, warmer front end, but most of the energy is still far back, cold is coming through now...Not like it matters it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It seems like in the past, when we have depended on Arctic air to come rushing in, the models have done this a lot faster than what ends up happening. Is this a real phenomena? Or just due to the fact that we normally bust high on temps. 2 thoughts.. 1.Usually models are to slow when precipitation gets in. So, it just ends earlier. 2. This is super cold arctic-- hence, the faster movement POSSIBLE. (and more suppressed route) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dude it's the NAM beyond 60. I mean, I guess it's fine to look at...but I wouldn't put much stock into it until 12z Saturday at best. Let me have my fun, but I know this obviously lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dude it's the NAM beyond 60. I mean, I guess it's fine to look at...but I wouldn't put much stock into it until 12z Saturday at best. #icezstrikesagain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here it comes at 75 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ok... oh why do you hate teh maths, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 oh why do you hate teh maths, Mark. Are you drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 #icezstrikesagain OMGAMAZBALLZSETUP#### Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 While snow in March is certainly not common in DC, is your point that we won't see any snow out of this based solely on climo? I think you need to hedge climo a bit, considering the air mass advertised. It's not an assessment on winter precip chances for next week, just an objective review of the data...accumulating snow is rare in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 At least Iforecasted the NAM accurately, you can see cold is pressed down and precip is starting to sprout lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here it comes at 75 hours Yup. it's snow at 84 hours..but again...NAM > 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, I get NAM past 60-- but, I give credence to the thermal profiles just because of the resolution. Does bode well for DC area. For me-- ice event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is the lulz in the 75 to 84 hr range 2m temps.... DCA upper 30s at 75 to near 20 at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In a given year, less than 3% of all days feature accumulating snowfall. Pretty rare. Seems flawed to include months that have never recorded snow in your calculation. If you and others feel a 3.6% return rate for snow in March makes it something other than rare, then alrighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's the NAM at 84 but it has the 850 0c line south of DC by 12z Monday. NAM outside of 48-60 hours + model runs too cold = fun to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam sucks but it was an interesting run. It was slower than 18z with the cold front initially around 54hrs, than by 78hrs it made a comeback and was south of 18z. My biggest concern is the surface. Last time we were waiting for a shallow cold airmass to come over the mountains it was an atrocious 10f warmer than the 24hr forecast on all models. Have to wait until we're closer in to worry about this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's the NAM at 84 but it has the 0c line south of DC by 12z Monday. NAM outside of 48-60 hours + model runs too cold = fun to look at it. Yes, but its not a snow sounding. I admit I took a glance at the 84 sounding There is a warm nose 700-800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is the lulz in the 75 to 84 hr range 2m temps.... DCA upper 30s at 75 to near 20 at 84 HM and others have beat the drum that this is SUPER cold air. I don't think it's that crazy.. PD2 we went from 36 to 26 in about 8 hours down here with the FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not gonna lie...the NAM is awesome for DC at 84 hours....of course, I just drank a bottle of cabernet in an hour so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, but its not a snow sounding. I admit I took a glance at the 84 sounding There is a warm nose 700-800 you should be ashame d of yourself....or maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No way I make it to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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