Ian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 1" of ice or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's like 5-7", He amended. For the 12z Euro. I think they were talking about the 18z GFS which showed 2-3" of snow at the end (after freezing rain/sleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Where might I find a good site to view the GEFS? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's like 5-7", He amended. I think that was for the euro run. 18z gfs was 2-4 mostly for our area and Ballmer. It doesn't matter much. Things are moving around. And in the right direction for now. Euro is quite precip heavy compared to other guidance. I'm rooting for the most precip possible like matt. Don't care how mixy it is. 1"+ liquid would be a awesome with the colder trend. I want to see society stopping glacial madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For the 12z Euro. I think they were talking about the 18z GFS which showed 2-3" of snow at the end (after freezing rain/sleet). ah. my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think that was for the euro run. 18z gfs was 2-4 mostly for our area and Ballmer. It doesn't matter much. Things are moving around. And in the right direction for now. Euro is quite precip heavy compared to other guidance. I'm rooting for the most precip possible like matt. Don't care how mixy it is. 1"+ liquid would be a awesome with the colder trend. I want to see society stopping glacial madness. Yup, I'm in with you guys. I want a ton of frozen precip...I'd really like snow, but I'll take any frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think that was for the euro run. 18z gfs was 2-4 mostly for our area and Ballmer. It doesn't matter much. Things are moving around. And in the right direction for now. Euro is quite precip heavy compared to other guidance. I'm rooting for the most precip possible like matt. Don't care how mixy it is. 1"+ liquid would be a awesome with the colder trend. I want to see society stopping glacial madness. The ECMWF being the wettest model is always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 From ewall looks like only 1 or 2 warm solutions left on the GEFS (and even those have some snow on the back end). QPF in the 0.5-1" range for the most part, and wouldn't be surprised to see it trend wetter as things have all year esp wrt the GFS. Even the DGEX is now cold at the sfc. Only the UKMET (and GGEM at the start) on the warm side as of now. Interesting that depending on when the front comes through we may torch quite a bit Sunday afternoon. Something to keep in mind if temp profiles suggest ZR - roads may not be as impacted. But that is starting to get too detailed for where we are at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yup, I'm in with you guys. I want a ton of frozen precip...I'd really like snow, but I'll take any frozen. The chicken dinner would be an upsidedown winter sammie. A quarter inch of ice with an inch of sleet on top covered by 6" of snow followed by Fairbanks temps. That S sounds like some fun azz S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GEFS mean would have the 0c 850 line moving through early Mon afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yup, I'm in with you guys. I want a ton of frozen precip...I'd really like snow, but I'll take any frozen. I would be ok with a sleet fest with some snow at the end. Zr or a prolonged sleet/zr mix would scare me with all the big trees I have around my house. Ice storms are cool if you don't live in the woods. One thing about getting accumulating sleet this time of year, it would stick around longer than a few inches of snow. The Feb 1994 event was about 4 inches of sleet/zr and it took forever to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GEFS mean would have the 0c 850 line moving through early Mon afternoon We're in the 0.75" contour on the GEFS. We drop below 32 at 2m shortly after 6z Monday (at 6z the 0c line is just north of DC). The mean trended a bit colder at 18z, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GEFS mean would have the 0c 850 line moving through early Mon afternoon The panels I see have it north of DCA at 1 pm Monday and south at 7 pm. Do you have a site where I can narrow that down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Since 1880 you have ~135 March months x 31 days = 4185 March days. Assume those ~150 March snowfalls were mostly within one day. So, about 3.6% of March days feature an accumulating snowfall. Not really rare? correct...a weather occurrence that has happened 150 times in 125 years is not rare.....I have had accumulating snow in the city in March, 7 times in the last 9 winters......To me something that I can expect to happen say 80%+ of winters, is not rare....So I guess it depends on how you interpret the word rare....Though I am confident most people would agree with me would not consider a weather event that occurs in most winters to be rare.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's like 5-7", He amended. ??...no I didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think that was for the euro run. 18z gfs was 2-4 mostly for our area and Ballmer. It doesn't matter much. Things are moving around. And in the right direction for now. Euro is quite precip heavy compared to other guidance. I'm rooting for the most precip possible like matt. Don't care how mixy it is. 1"+ liquid would be a awesome with the colder trend. I want to see society stopping glacial madness. more precip almost definitely means more frozen in this case...a colder solution is almost definitely going to be wetter than a warmer solution in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 since it is a little slow between runs... I want to upgrade my weather station... does anyone have any suggestions... If you do please message me. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ??...no I didn't Dude, read up. I already said I was confusing the 18z GFS vs Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 correct...a weather occurrence that has happened 150 times in 125 years is not rare.....I have had accumulating snow in the city in March, 7 times in the last 9 winters......To me something that I can expect to happen say 80%+ of winters, is not rare....So I guess it depends on how you interpret the word rare....Though I am confident most people would agree with me would not consider a weather event that occurs in most winters to be rare.. It hardly ever snows during March, less than 4% of total days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hardly ever snows during March, less than 4% of total days. ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hardly ever snows during March, less than 4% of total days. While snow in March is certainly not common in DC, is your point that we won't see any snow out of this based solely on climo? I think you need to hedge climo a bit, considering the air mass advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 @interstate I sent you a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The panels I see have it north of DCA at 1 pm Monday and south at 7 pm. Do you have a site where I can narrow that down? I only see the 1pm MON and 7pm MON panel as well... but one can easily see that on the 1pm panel, the 0c 850 line is close by... like 50 miles to the N and W. By 7pm panel, 0c line is down by RIC. So, one could extrapolate that the 0c 850 line prob crosses through all of DCA and is south of there by ~3pm MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hardly ever snows during March, less than 4% of total days. OK, so like 1 day during March, with every 4th year getting 2 days. That's maybe "not common"-- but definitely not even close to rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This winter has been anything but climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It hardly ever snows during March, less than 4% of total days. In a given year, less than 3% of all days feature accumulating snowfall. Pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wouldn't pay much attention to temp profiles on the GEFS. Certainly look at it for storm track, but in a CAD situation, it's not going to do well with thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS is all snow for Westminster, .97 qpf Mapgirl, where do you get the text qpf output? At this point Towson looks like mostly snow on the GFS, with possibly some mixing at the start. 18z 850 temps cooler than 12z, but not as cold 06z, when the whole column was well below freezing for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I usually only refer to the SREFs for trends in QPF, SLP, etc and something else in between the globals & NAM. SREFs are worlds apart from the GFS and Euro. Surface freezing line is still up in central PA at 12z Monday. I know SREFs generally are unreliable, especially towards the end of their run, but are they particularly bad with CAD situations? I would assume so since CAD is picked up better by the higher res models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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